Severe Thunderstorm Warning 97, NWS Tampa Bay, FL

WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
110 PM EDT SAT AUG 2 2003

CURRENTLY...SCT SHOWERS AND TSTMS HAVE BEEN RAPIDLY DEVELOPING OVER
THE INTERIOR...A TAD EARLIER THAN EXPECTED. USING LIGHTNING CLIMO
STUDY FROM FSU...CONVECTION WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE
ALONG THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE...THEN COVERAGE WILL BE RELATIVELY
HIGH AND UNIFORM ACROSS MUCH OF THE FA BY LATER THIS AFTN. THIS
ASSUMES A SFC RIDGE AXIS BETWEEN TPA AND JAX.

--SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-MON)--
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH LARGE SCALE PATTERN NEXT FEW DAYS.
RATHER UNUSUAL AMPLIFIED UPPER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE...WITH RIDGE
ACROSS THE WEST...TROF OVER THE EAST AND RIDGE AGAIN OVER THE WEST
ATLC. MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO BE HIGH ENOUGH FOR ABOVE CLIMO POPS...
THE ONLY DIFFICULTY WILL BE PLACEMENT OF SFC RIDGE AXIS...WHICH
WILL DICTATE TIMING OF CONVECTION. FOR SUN...A BROAD RIDGE AXIS WILL
BE OVER THE CENT/NCENT FA...WITH LIGHT SE LOW LEVEL FLOW...BECOMING
ONSHORE NEAR THE COAST. THIS SHOULD KEEP MAINLY AFTN/EVENING POPS. BY
MON...THE GFS LOWERS UPPER HTS A LITTLE MORE THAN THE ETA OVER THE SE
U.S...RESULTING IN MORE SW LOW LEVEL FLOW FROM TPA N...WHICH WOULD
FAVOR MORNING AND EARLY AFTN CONVECTION. GIVEN THIS SEEMS TO BE THE
PREFERRED PATTERN THIS SUMMER...WILL GO WITH MORE OF A GFS RIDGE AXIS
PLACEMENT BY MON. WILL KEEP 60%/LIKELY POPS FOR SUN...AND 50-60% POPS
BY MON. MAY HAVE A LITTLE LESS COVERAGE NEAR THE COAST FROM TPA/SRQ
NORTH ON MON IF SW LOW LEVEL FLOW VERIFIES. MAX TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE
A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL OVER THE N 1/2 OF THE FA GIVEN ABOVE NORMAL
POPS AND SW FLOW OFF GULF.

--EXTENDED (MON NIGHT-SAT)--
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER EASTERN U.S. THROUGH THE PERIOD
KEEPING RIDGE AXIS OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA.  MOISTURE WILL REMAIN PLENTIFUL SO WILL CONTINUE WITH
SCATTERED POPS EACH DAY MAINLY FROM LATE MORNING INTO THE EVENING
HOURS EACH DAY WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

--MARINE--
NO MAJOR CHANGES OR CONCERNS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. LATEST GFS
TRIES TO DEVELOP A SFC LOW OVER THE SE U.S. ON THURS...WHICH
STRENGTHENS GRAD OVER THE NE GULF TO 15-20 KTS. TOO EARLY TO GO
WITH THIS SOLUTION. GENERALLY SW FLOW FROM TARPON NORTH SHOULD KEEP
BEST CONVECTION TO LATE NIGHT THROUGH EARLY AFTN.

PRELIM #S:
BKV 071/090 072/089 3635
TPA 074/089 076/089 3635
GIF 074/091 075/090 4736
SRQ 073/089 075/088 3635
FMY 074/090 075/090 4736=

.TBW...NONE.

MORALES/CLOSE

FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-021600-

WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
600 AM EDT SAT AUG 2 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY:

THIS AFTERNOON... SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AND INCREASE
IN COVERAGE ALONG THE SEABREEZE EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND FURTHER
INLAND LATER. THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL CONTAIN HAIL...HEAVY RAIN IN
EXCESS OF TWO INCHES...AND WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH OR HIGHER. EXCESSIVE
LIGHTNING IS ALSO EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY:

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY.  SOME THUNDERSTORMS
MAY BRIEFLY BECOME SEVERE.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ASKED TO RELAY ANY REPORTS OF SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER TO THE NWS OFFICE IN RUSKIN.

FLZ050-021900-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
219 PM EDT SAT AUG 2 2003

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT PINELLAS COUNTY...A THUNDERSTORM
STATIONARY...WILL AFFECT HIGHPOINT...CLEARWATER AND LARGO...UNTIL
300 PM EDT. GUSTY WINDS 40 TO 50 MPH MAY CAUSE LOOSE OBJECTS TO BLOW
AROUND. MINOR DAMAGE TO TREE LIMBS AND WIRES IS POSSIBLE. FREQUENT
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS EXPECTED. IF CAUGHT OUTSIDE...CROUCH
DOWN IN A LOW SPOT...AWAY FROM TALL OBJECTS. HAIL UP TO ONE HALF
INCH IN DIAMETER IS EXPECTED. TORRENTIAL RAINS WILL REDUCE
VISIBILITY TO NEAR ZERO AT TIMES. MOTORISTS MAY WANT TO DELAY TRAVEL.

JILLSON

FLZ052-022100-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
412 PM EDT SAT AUG 2 2003

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT POLK COUNTY...
A THUNDERSTORM...MOVING WEST AT 10 MPH...WILL AFFECT RURAL NORTHERN
POLK COUNTY AND POLK CITY...UNTIL 500 PM EDT. GUSTY WINDS UP TO 50
MPH MAY CAUSE LOOSE OBJECTS TO BLOW AROUND. SOME DAMAGE TO TREE
LIMBS AND WIRES IS POSSIBLE. FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS
EXPECTED. IF CAUGHT OUTSIDE...CROUCH DOWN IN A LOW SPOT...AWAY FROM
TALL OBJECTS. HAIL UP TO ONE HALF INCH IN DIAMETER IS EXPECTED.
RAINFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR WILL OCCUR. MOTORISTS CAN
EXPECT PONDING OF WATER ON ROADS...AND MINOR FLOODING OF POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS.

JILLSON