Severe Thunderstorm Warning 94, NWS Tampa Bay, FL

WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
156 PM EDT FRI AUG 1 2003

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE BIG PICTURE.  BERMUDA HIGH BEING
PANCAKED BY CUTOFF VORTEX DROPPING FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE
NORTHEAST U.S./MID ATLC WILL BE REFLECTED AT THE SFC BY AN
OSCILLATING SFC RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND S PENINSULA.  THAT
MEANS A CONTINUATION OF OVERNIGHT THROUGH EARLY AFTN MARINE
ACTIVITY...AND GENERALLY LATE MORNING THROUGH EARLY EVENING ACTIVITY
INLAND.

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE BIG PICTURE...BUT DIFFER A BIT
EARLY ON.  ETA MOVES EASTERLY WAVE NOW IN THE BAHAMAS ALONG FLS
EAST COAST THROUGH SAT NIGHT...WITH BACKSIDE ENE FLOW DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE PENINSULA.  GFS KEEPS THE WAVE FARTHER E AND N WHICH
APPEARS TO BE A BETTER SOLUTION BASED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGES...
LEAVING MORE OF A SE TO S BACKGROUND FLOW.

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT - SUN):
SUBTLE CHANGES OCCURRED TODAY...WITH A TAD MORE ROBUST SE FLOW NEAR
THE SFC AT DAYBREAK (SINCE DISSIPATED) PRODUCING NUMEROUS MORNING
TSTMS OFFSHORE AND SLOWING DOWN SOMEWHAT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
INLAND.  ECSB ACTIVITY MUCH MORE PRONOUNCED AS WELL.  COVERAGE
INCREASING QUICKLY AS CONVECTIVE TEMP HAS BEEN REACHED.  EXPECT
EVENING ACTIVITY TO FOCUS OVER INTERIOR AND S COUNTIES...AND WILL
DECIDE LAST MINUTE WHETHER TO ADD A REMAINDER OF AFTN/EVE PERIOD.

THEREAFTER...EXPECT A QUIET OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING EACH DAY AS
SE FLOW HOLDS DEVELOPMENT OFFSHORE.  GIVEN DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE
AND PERSISTENT (THOUGH WEAK) SHEAR AXIS NEARBY...WILL CONTINUE
LIKELY AFTN CATEGORY EACH DAY AND SCT/ISOLD DURING THE EVENING.  MAX
TEMPS SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO THIS AFTN (89-92).

EXTENDED (SUN NIGHT - FRI):
SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD
AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES OVER EASTERN U.S.  THUS WILL CONTINUE
TO SEE SCATTERED MAINLY LATE MORNING THROUGH EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

MARINE...AS EXPECTED...ACTIVITY DRYING UP THIS AFTN BUT WILL
REDEVELOP AFTER DARK AS INSTABILITY SHIFTS TO THE WATER.  COULD BE
NUMEROUS TSTMS N OF TARPON AGAIN SAT AND SUN MORNING...BUT WILL
SETTLE FOR SCT OVERNIGHT/MORNING AND ISOLD AFTN/EVE.  WINDS A TAD
MORE S/SE AND PERHAPS A SHADE HIGHER...STILL NOT SIGNIFICANT.

FIRE WX:  NO PROBLEMS EXPECTED.

PRELIM NUMBERS:
TPA 076/091 076/090 2635
FMY 075/091 075/091 3535
GIF 074/092 074/092 3636
SRQ 075/090 075/089 2525
BKV 071/092 071/090 2636

.TBW...NONE.

BSG/PRC

FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-011600-

WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
600 AM EDT FRI AUG 1 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY:

A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY MOVE ONSHORE FROM THE GULF PRIMARILY NORTH OF
TAMPA BAY DURING THE MORNING HOURS. THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE
LIGHTNING AND BRIEF HEAVY RAIN.

DURING THE AFTERNOON... AS THE GULF SEA BREEZE MOVES INLAND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE. THE STRONGEST
STORMS WILL CONTAIN HAIL...HEAVY RAIN IN EXCESS OF TWO INCHES...AND
WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH OR HIGHER. EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING IS ALSO
EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY:

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS REQUESTED THIS AFTERNOON. WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
REMINDED TO RELAY ANY REPORTS OF SIGNIFICANT WEATHER TO THE NWS
OFFICE IN RUSKIN.

FLZ051-011800-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
123 PM EDT FRI AUG 1 2003

...TORRENTIAL RAINS WILL CONTINUE OVER TAMPA...
A STATIONARY DEVELOPING THUNDERSTORM...WILL AFFECT WEST PARK...TOWN
N COUNTRY...TAMPA INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT AND TAMPA...UNTIL 200 PM
EDT. GUSTY WINDS UP TO 40 MPH WILL OCCUR. FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING IS EXPECTED. IF CAUGHT OUTSIDE...CROUCH DOWN IN A LOW
SPOT...AWAY FROM TALL OBJECTS. TORRENTIAL RAINS WILL REDUCE
VISIBILITY TO NEAR ZERO AT TIMES...AND HAIL UP TO ONE HALF INCH IN
DIAMETER IS POSSIBLE.  MOTORISTS MAY WANT TO DELAY TRAVEL UNTIL THE
STORM SUBSIDES.

GOLDSMITH