Severe Thunderstorm Warning 91, NWS Tampa Bay, FL

WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
125 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2003

ONLY SUBTLE CHANGES TO THE PATTERN TO FINISH OFF THE WORKWEEK.  YET
ANOTHER WEAK EASTERN U.S. TROUGH NOSING DOWN INTO FL WILL GRADUALLY
SUBSIDE BY WED...LEAVING A FLAT SFC-500 MB RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PENINSULA INTO FRI.  UPPER TROUGHING SEEMS NEVER FAR AWAY THIS
SUMMER...AND GFS HINTING AT YET ANOTHER SLIGHT DIP FOR THE
WEEKEND.

MODELS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.  GFS MAY BE A
BIT TOO DRY GIVEN PERSISTENCE/CLIMATOLOGY...SO WILL LEAN TOWARD THE
ETA SOLUTION THIS PACKAGE.

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT - THU):
STABILIZATION FROM MORNING CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST...
IS HOLDING OFF DEVELOPMENT FOR NOW BUT EXPECT THINGS TO CRANK UP
BETWEEN 2 AND 5 PM AND CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING.  MAY CARRY AN
AFTN/EVE PERIOD IN THE TEXT TO ACCOUNT.  THEREAFTER...LIGHT SW FLOW
JUST OFF THE SFC AND STILL A WEAKNESS ALOFT ACROSS THE N PENINSULA
MAY HELP THE ISOLD/SCT EARLY MORNING ACTIVITY AGAIN WED...ESPECIALLY
FROM TAMPA BAY N.  THIS AREA SHOULD CONTRACT FARTHER N THURS
MORNING AS HEIGHTS RISE AND SHEAR AXIS DISSIPATES.  TYPICAL SCT
AFTN/EVE TSTMS EACH DAY WITH CLIMO PCPN CHANCES AND SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES.

EXTENDED (THU NIGHT - TUE): WEAK SURFACE RIDGE WILL HOLD OVER THE
CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.  WEAK FLOW WILL
ALLOW FOR THE WEST COAST SEABREEZE TO PUSH WELL INLAND BY LATE IN
THE DAY.  SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP DURING THE EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS OVER THE COASTAL COUNTIES AND SPREAD INLAND THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON.  SUNDAY WILL BE A TRANSITION DAY AS THE SURFACE RIDGE
AXIS IS PUSHED SOUTH DUE TO A DIGGING U/L TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHEAST
U.S. GENERALLY CLIMO POPS AND TEMPS EXPECTED SUNDAY ALL AREAS.  AS
THE RIDGE AXIS SINKS SOUTH...L/L FLOW WILL BECOME SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT.  THIS IS CONDUCIVE TO LATE NIGHT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO
PUSHING LOCALLY ONSHORE DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON MONDAY...
WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER THE INTERIOR MONDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS PATTERN WILL HOLD ON TUESDAY WITH SIMILAR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED.  OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS WILL RUN A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...
ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST...WITH DAYTIME HIGHS NEAR NORMAL TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

MARINE:  OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION...LIGHT S TO SW WINDS WITH WEAK AFTN
SEA BREEZES AND SLIGHT SEAS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

FIRE WX:  NO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED.

THANX FOR COORD KMFL.

PRELIM NUMBERS:
TPA 076/090 076/091 2525
FMY 075/091 075/092 3535
GIF 075/093 075/093 3535
SRQ 074/089 074/090 2525
BKV 072/091 072/092 2525

.TBW...NONE.

BSG/EO

FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-291530-

WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
530 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY:

...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE TODAY...

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING WILL PRODUCE QUITE
UNSTABLE CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DEVELOPING THROUGH THE DAY...FIST ALONG THE
COAST...THEN MOVING INLAND.

THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL CONTAIN HAIL...HEAVY RAIN IN EXCESS OF TWO
INCHES...AND WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH OR HIGHER. EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING IS
ALSO EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY:

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY AS TYPICAL SUMMERTIME
CONDITIONS PERSIST.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS REQUESTED TODAY. WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE REMINDED
TO RELAY ANY REPORTS OF SIGNIFICANT WEATHER TO THE NWS OFFICE IN
RUSKIN.

ALSHEIMER

MARINE LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN  FL
120 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2003

TIME(EDT)  .....MARINE SUBZONE....   GMZ  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ......MARINE ZONE......

0612 AM    OLD TAMPA BAY             830  34 KT MARINE TSTM WIND
07/29/03   TAMPA BAY WATERS               REPORTED BY MARINE OBS
                                          STATION AT OLD PORT
                                          TAMPA...TAMPA BAY PORTS.

BSG

FLZ065-292145-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
458 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2003

...STRONG SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT LEE COUNTY...UNTIL
545 PM EDT. THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT WHISKEY CREEK...NORTH
FORT MYERS...FORT MYERS...CAPE CORAL...ESTERO...FORT MYERS VILLAS
AND PAGE PARK-PINE MANOR... GUSTY WINDS UP TO 40 MPH WILL OCCUR.
FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS EXPECTED. IF CAUGHT
OUTSIDE...CROUCH DOWN IN A LOW SPOT...AWAY FROM TALL OBJECTS. HAIL
UP TO ONE HALF INCH IN DIAMETER IS EXPECTED. RAINFALL RATES OF 1 TO
2 INCHES PER HOUR WILL OCCUR. MOTORISTS CAN EXPECT PONDING OF WATER
ON ROADS...AND MINOR FLOODING OF POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

DAVIS

FLZ062-292245-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
602 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2003

...SLOW MOVING STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT EASTERN CHARLOTTE
COUNTY...

WILL AFFECT RURAL EASTERN AND NORTHEASTERN CHARLOTTE COUNTY NEAR
TUCKERS CORNER AND BABCOCK RANCH...UNTIL 645 PM EDT. GUSTY WINDS UP
TO 40 MPH WILL OCCUR. FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS
EXPECTED. IF CAUGHT OUTSIDE...CROUCH DOWN IN A LOW SPOT...AWAY FROM
TALL OBJECTS. HAIL UP TO ONE HALF INCH IN DIAMETER IS EXPECTED.
RAINFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR WILL OCCUR. MOTORISTS CAN
EXPECT PONDING OF WATER ON ROADS...AND MINOR FLOODING OF POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS.

DAVIS