Severe Thunderstorm Warning 86, NWS Tampa Bay, FL

WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
230 PM EDT SAT JUL 26 2003

CURRENTLY/SHORT TERM (TODAY THRU MON)...RIDGE OVER N FL AND
ASOCIATED ESE FLOW HAS PUSHED TSTMS INTO THE SOUTH AND EASTERN FA.
CLOUDS AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE IN INTENSITY WEST
COAST SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY DEVELOPS. THE MOST VIGOROUS TSTMS SHOULD BE
NORTH OF TAMPA BAY WHERE AFTERNOON HEATING SHOULD BE GREATER AND GULF
SEA BREEZE STRONGER. DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER MID/UPPER AIR
ASSOCIATED WITH TUTT TO THE EAST STILL OFF THE LOWER EAST COAST AND
SHOULD PROVIDE MINOR ENHANCEMENT TO THE AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS
SUNDAY. BY TUESDAY SURFACE RIDGE MOVES SOUTHWARD ACROSS OUR CENTRAL
FL PRODUCING ONSHORE FLOW FROM TAMPA BAY NORTH WITH MORNING AND
MIDDAY THUNDERSTORMS NORTH DEVELOPING LATER TO THE SOUTH.

EXTENDED (TUE THRU SAT)...THE SURFACE RIDGE DROPS INTO THE SOUTH-
CENTRAL CWFA TUE AND THEN SOUTH FL WED BEFORE LIFTING BACK INTO THE
CENTRAL CWFA THU AND THEN ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE STATE FOR
FRI AND SAT...WHEN A WEAK EASTERLY WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE STATE. HOWEVER...POPS WILL STAY IN THE SCATTERED RANGE
WITH AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING TIMING ACROSS THE LAND. WINDS WILL
SHIFT AS THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES BY AND ARE EXPECTED TO STAY LIGHT
ENOUGH FOR AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES SOUTH OF THE RIDGE AXIS.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN THE NORMAL RANGE THOUGH OUT THE PERIOD.

MARINE... MODERATE EASTERLY FLOW WITH LATE AFTERNOON SEABREEZES
HUGGING THE COAST. FLOW EVOLVES EARLY IN THE WEEK AS THE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE SINKS SOUTHWARD. SPEEDS LESS THAN 15 KNOTS WITH SEAS 3
FEET OR LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

FIRE WEATHER... NO CONCERNS.

CCFTBW
TPA BB 073/092 075/090 078 03242
FMY BB 074/092 074/091 076 03442
GIF BB 073/092 073/092 075 03242
SRQ BB 073/090 074/090 076 03242
BKV BB 071/092 071/091 073 03242

.TBW...NONE.

CP/RR

FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-261430-

WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL FL
534 AM EDT SAT JUL 26 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY:

SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AS DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES TO 90 OR ABOVE WILL ACT ON A MOIST ATMOSPHERE. THE
STRONGEST THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ON THE GULF AND EAST COAST SEA
BREEZES...WITH ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE IN LOCATIONS WHERE
THE BOUNDARIES COLLIDE LATE IN THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS. THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL CONTAIN HAIL...HEAVY RAIN IN
EXCESS OF TWO INCHES...AND WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH OR HIGHER.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY:

SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY AS A RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA. THIS WILL PUSH
THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE INTO THE AREA AND CREATE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING THUNDERTSORMS. WINDS WILL VEER TO THE SOUTHWEST BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO THE EASTERN
QUARTER OF THE U.S. THIS WILL BRING LATE MORNING STORMS TO THE COAST
AND SCATTERED STORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS REQUESTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE REMINDED TO RELAY ANY REPORTS OF SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER TO THE NWS OFFICE IN RUSKIN.

ALSHEIMER