Severe Thunderstorm Warning 84, NWS Tampa Bay, FL

WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
215 PM EDT FRI JUL 25 2003

CURRENT/SHORT TERM (FRI-SUN)...RIDGE STILL ACROSS CENTRAL FL WITH SE
FLOW SOUTH OF TAMPA BAY AND AND ONSHORE WINDS NORTH. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY BEGINING TO FIRE ALONG THE WEST COAST
SEABREEZE. SOME TSTMS WILL BE STRONGER WITH ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER
THIS AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY FROM TAMPA BAY NORTH. MODELS IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT WITH RIDGE DRIFTING NORTH OVER THE WEEKEND.

LONG TERM (MON-FRI)...SFC RIDGE AXIS STARTS OFF OVER NORTH FL MONDAY
AND THEN SLIDES SOUTH AND WEAKENS...REACHING SOUTH FL LATE TUESDAY.
THE RIDGE LIFTS BACK IN THE NORTH CWFA BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
SOUTHEAST FLOW GIVES WAY TO SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST AS RIDGE AXIS MOVES
OVER THE AREA...BUT WITH A GENERALLY LIGHT FLOW THAT ALLOWS AFTERNOON
SEA BREEZES FOR COASTAL LOCATIONS. SOUTHEAST FLOW BEGINS TO SET UP
AGAIN THU & FRI AS RIDGE MOVES BACK NORTH. A MOIST ATMOSPHERE WILL
REMAIN IN-PLACE...ENHANCED BY SOME WEAK WAVES MOVING BY TO THE
SOUTH...WITH SCATTERED POPS(40-50%) FOR THE AFTERNOON AND TRENDING
DOWN AT NIGHT. LITTLE CHANGE IN THE TEMPERATURE RANGE.

MARINE...SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL VEER TO SOUTHWEST TUESDAY BUT WINDS
REMAIN 15 KT OR BELOW AND WAVES TO REMAIN 3 FT OR LESS THRU PERIOD.

FIRE WEATHER...NO PROBLEMS.

CCFTBW
TPA TB 076/092 076/091 075 03252
FMY TB 075/092 076/093 076 03252
GIF TB 073/093 073/093 073 03252
SRQ TB 076/090 076/089 075 03252
BKV TB 072/092 073/092 074 03252

.TBW...NONE.

CP/RR

FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-251430-

WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL FL
600 AM EDT FRI JUL 25 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY:
SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BRING THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE
TO THE WEST COAST THIS AFTERNOON. THIS AND THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES WILL TRIGGER SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS. IN
ADDITION TO THE SEA BREEZE FRONT...A SMALL SCALE UPPER LEVEL ROTATION
150 MILES WEST OF NAPLES EARLY THIS MORNING WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON. A SMALL POCKET OF COOL AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM COULD ENHANCE THE HAIL POTENTIAL. LOCALIZED FLOODING AND BRIEF
60 MPH DOWNBURST WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY:

SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY AS A RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA. THIS WILL PUSH
THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE INTO THE AREA AND CREATE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING THUNDERTSORMS. WINDS WILL VEER TO THE SOUTHWEST TUESDAY
AS LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO THE EASTERN QUARTER OF THE
U.S. THIS WILL BRING EARLY MORNING STORMS TO THE COAST AND SCATTERED
STORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS REQUESTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE REMINDED TO RELAY ANY REPORTS OF SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER TO THE NWS OFFICE IN RUSKIN.

NOAH