Severe Thunderstorm Warning 82, NWS Tampa Bay, FL

WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
230 PM EDT THU JUL 24 2003

CURRENT...THUNDERSTORMS FIRING UP NORTH OF TAMPA BAY IN SOUTHWEST
FLOW SOUTH OF SURFACE/UL TROF OVER THE PANHANDLE AND NORTH OF
RIDGELINE ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA. REMAINS OF TD 6 OFF THE SOUTHEAST
FL COAST.

SHORT TERM (THU NIGHT THRU SAT)...EXPECT THE NORTHERN FA TO
CONTINUE ACTIVE THIS AFTERNOON IN AN AREA WITH COOLER MID LEVEL
TEMPERATURES AND MORE INSTABILITY. MOISTURE IS CREEPING INTO
THE SOUTHERN FA FROM THE SOUTH AS THE INVERTED TROF ONCE TD 6
MEANDERS WEST. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP LATE OVER SW FL AND
SHOULD LINGER OVERNIGHT ESPECIALLY IN THE COASTAL WATERS. THE
SURFACE RIDGE WILL DRIFT NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY AS THE
MID/UPPER TROF RETRACTS NORTHEASTWARD. SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL
REMAIN THRU THE WEEKEND PRODUCING MID AND LATE AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS.

LONG TERM (SUN THRU THU)...DEEP LAYER RIDGING WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
THE SOUTHEASTERN SATES THROUGH LATE SUNDAY AS A WEAK EASTERLY WAVE
TRANSITS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STATE. RIDGING STARTS TO SHIFT
SOUTHWARD STARTING MONDAY...AS THE AXIS SETTLES INTO CENTRAL FL
TUESDAY AND THEN LINGERS THERE THROUGH THURSDAY AS IT WEAKENS SOME.
FLOW WILL VEER TO SOUTHWESTERLY AS RIDGE AXIS MOVES SOUTHWARD OVER
MUCH OF THE CWFA. BOTH TEMPERATURES AND POPS WILL STAY IN THE NORMAL
RANGE...HOWEVER NORTHERLY COASTAL LOCATIONS COULD SEE SOME MORNING
PRECIPITATION WHEN SOUTHWEST FLOW BECOMES ESTABLISHED.

MARINE...A SOUTHEAST FLOW 15 KT OR LESS WILL TREND ACROSS THE AREA
OVER THE WEEKEND WITH LATE AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES.

FIRE WEATHER...NO PROBLEMS EXPECTED.

CCFTBW
TPA EB 076/092 076/092 077 03242
FMY EB 076/091 075/092 076 03442
GIF EB 074/093 074/093 075 03442
SRQ EB 078/091 076/090 076 03242
BKV EB 074/092 072/092 073 03242

.TBW...NONE.

CP/RR

FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-241400-

WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL FL
600 AM EDT THU JUL 24 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY:

LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL DEVELOP SOUTH OF A SARASOTA TO WINTER
HAVEN LINE TODAY. AREAS TO THE SOUTH OF THIS LINE WILL HAVE THE
MOST NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DEVELOP ELSEWHERE. MOST STORMS WILL NOT PRODUCE SEVERE WEATHER.
HOWEVER...A FEW OF THE STORMS AWAY FROM THE COAST MAY PRODUCE NICKEL
SIZE HAIL AND BRIEF DOWNBURST WINDS TO 60 MPH. WATERSPOUTS HAVE THE
BEST CHANCE TO FORM NORTH OF SARASOTA.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY:

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS SOUTHERN FLORIDA WILL MOVE INTO
NORTHERN FLORIDA TOMORROW. THIS WILL BRING A MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME
PATTERN OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE
EAST COAST SEA BREEZE. THE PATTERN IS FORECAST TO CHANGE TO BACK TO
LOW LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW ON TUESDAY. THIS WILL BRING ISOLATED
MORNING PRECIPITATION TO THE COAST WITH A CHANCE OF WATERSPOUTS.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...

IF SEVERE WEATHER DOES OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON IT WILL BE ISOLATED AND
BRIEF. WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE REMINDED TO RELAY ANY REPORTS OF
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER TO THE NWS OFFICE IN RUSKIN.

NOAH

FLZ048-049-241915-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
233 PM EDT THU JUL 24 2003

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MOVING NORTHEAST AT 10 MPH...WILL AFFECT
SPRING HILL...MASARYKTOWN AND BROOKSVILLE...UNTIL 315 PM EDT. GUSTY
WINDS UP TO 40 MPH WILL OCCUR. FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS
EXPECTED. IF CAUGHT OUTSIDE...CROUCH DOWN IN A LOW SPOT...AWAY FROM
TALL OBJECTS. RAINFALL RATES OF 2 TO 3 INCHES PER HOUR WILL OCCUR.
MOTORISTS CAN EXPECT PONDING OF WATER ON ROADS...AND MINOR FLOODING
OF POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

KAMP