Alert archive / Florida / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2003

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 80, NWS Tampa Bay, FL

July 21, 2003Polk County, Florida

NWS Tampa Bay, FL issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Jul 21, 2003, 5:00 PM EDT for Polk County, Florida. It was in force for 30 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Jul 21, 2003, 5:00 PM EDT (21:00 UTC)
Expired
Jul 21, 2003, 5:30 PM EDT
In force
30 min
Issued by
NWS Tampa Bay, FL
Area
Counties, with a storm outline in the text

County Polk County, FL

Did it verify

Not verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow found no qualifying storm report inside this severe thunderstorm warning while it was in force. That is not proof nothing happened: reports are thin where few people live.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The nearest sounding before it

Tampa Bay, FL (KTBW), launched 12:00Z, 9.0 hours before the alert went out and 88 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Tampa Bay, FL at 12:00Z on 2003-07-21Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 961 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Tampa Bay, FL at 12:00Z on 2003-07-21The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 38 square meters per square second.1939Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
961 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-58 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
1072 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
21 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
38 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
65 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.7

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

953 
WUUS52 KTBW 212100
SVRTBW
FLC105-212130-

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
500 PM EDT MON JUL 21 2003

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN RUSKIN HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
  CENTRAL POLK COUNTY IN FLORIDA.

* UNTIL 530 PM EDT

* AT 500 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
  SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...OVER
  HAINES CITY...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT...
  HAINES CITY.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CONTAIN WIND GUSTS OF 60 MPH OR HIGHER...AND
HAIL THE SIZE OF PENNIES OR LARGER. MOVE TO A PLACE OF SAFETY.

REPORT SEVERE WEATHER OR DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY
OR YOUR COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT. THEY WILL RELAY YOUR REPORT TO
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE IN RUSKIN.

&&

LAT...LON 2810 8172 2796 8159 2805 8146 2818 8156

$$

88

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Tampa Bay, FL wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Jul 21, 1:01 PM EDT, 3 hours 59 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jul 21, 1:01 PM EDT, 3 hours 59 minutes before
WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
101 PM EDT MON JUL 21 2003

CURRENTLY: POPCORN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE UNDER WAY...
ALTHOUGH DRY AIR AT MID LEVELS IS KEEPING THEM FROM LASTING TOO LONG
SO FAR. THEY ARE MOVING SLOWLY INLAND AS EXPECTED.

SHORT TERM (TNGT THRU WED): NOT MUCH CHANGE IN WEATHER THE FIRST HALF
OF THE WEEK. SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN FA WILL KEEP LOW LEVEL
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER MOST OF THE AREA IN TACT. THIS WILL MEAN
MOSTLY LATE MORNING THROUGH MID AFTERNOON ACTIVITY ALONG THE COAST...
SHIFTING INLAND FOR THE MID AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING HOURS.
DAYTIME MAX TEMPS NEAR NORMAL WITH MINS A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL NEAR
THE COAST.

EXTENDED (THU THRU MON): LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD
DUE TO TD 6. CURRENT FORECAST TAKES TD 6 TO THE SOUTH COAST OF
CENTRAL CUBA AS A TROPICAL STORM THURSDAY MORNING...THEN INTO THE
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO ON FRIDAY. AT THIS POINT...DECIDED NOT TO
INCREASE WINDS/SEAS FROM WHAT WAS IN PREVIOUS PACKAGE. I DID TAKE
THE WINDS A BIT MORE SOUTHEASTERLY AS THE SYSTEM PASSES BY. ASIDE
FROM TD 6...SHOULD SEE STANDARD AFTERNOON/EVENING TYPE CONVECTION
EACH DAY WITH POPS NEAR CLIMO. SFC RIDGE AXIS MOVES FROM CENTRAL
FLORIDA ON THURSDAY TO NORTHERN FLORIDA ON SATURDAY...THEN NORTH OF
FLORIDA SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO A TRANSITION FROM
MAINLY INLAND SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY TO MORE
CONCENTRATED SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG THE COASTAL AREAS FOR THE
WEEKEND.

MARINE: GENERAL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH THE
STRONGEST WINDS OVER THE NORTHERN LEG. AS THE SURFACE RIDGE MOVES
NORTH LATER IN THE WEEK...WINDS WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHEASTERLY WITH
THE ONSHORE TURN IN THE AFTERNOON. OF COURSE...WIND AND SEAS ARE
DEPENDENT UPON STRENGTH AND TRACK OF TD 6.

FIRE WEATHER: NO CONCERNS.

ISC GRIDS ARE IN.

PRELIM NUMBERS:
TPA 78/90/76/90 1525
FMY 76/92/75/92 2535
GIF 75/92/75/92 3535
SRQ 76/90/76/90 1525
BKV 71/90/73/89 2525

.TBW...NONE.

ALSHEIMER/EJ
Hazardous weather outlook, Jul 21, 6:00 AM EDT, 11 hours before
FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-211400-

WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
600 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY:

ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FOUND JUST OFFSHORE
THIS MORNING AND ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ABOUT 5 TO 10 MILES INLAND
BEFORE NOON ALONG THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE. THE WEST COAST SEA
BREEZE BOUNDARY WILL MOVE INLAND THIS AFTERNOON WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BECOMING MORE NUMEROUS OVER INTERIOR COUNTIES.

WATERSPOUTS ARE LIKELY TODAY. REMEMBER...WATERSPOUTS CAN FORM IN
BUILDING CLOUDS THAT HAVE NOT YET BECOME A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM.
KEEP AN EYE TO THE SKY IF YOU ARE OUT ON THE WATER OR IF YOU LIVE
NEAR THE COAST.

FURTHER INLAND...THE SCATTERED STORMS WILL CAUSE LOCALIZED FLOODING
AND BRIEF WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY:

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL HAVE WEATHER SIMILAR TO TODAY WITH
ISOLATED MORNING STORMS NEAR THE COAST AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
INLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE PATTERN CHANGES THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES NORTH AND THE LOW LEVEL
WINDS TURN FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO THE SOUTHEAST. EXPECT MAINLY
SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS WEEK.

MEANWHILE...TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY INTO A
TROPICAL STORM AND MOVE THROUGH THE CARIBBEAN THIS WEEK...AND INTO
THE GULF OF MEXICO THIS WEEKEND. REFER TO THE LATEST ADVISORY FROM
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER FOR MORE INFORMATION. ON THE
INTERNET...VISIT WEATHER DOT GOV...THAT IS W E A T H E R DOT G O V.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...PLEASE
CALL IN ALL REPORTS OF WATERSPOUTS TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
OR LAW ENFORCEMENT.

NOAH

In the hours before

Special weather statement, Jul 21, 4:56 PM EDT, 4 minutes before
FLZ052-212145-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
456 PM EDT MON JUL 21 2003

A THUNDERSTORM...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 10 MPH...WILL AFFECT HAINES
CITY AND LOUGHMAN...UNTIL 545 PM EDT. GUSTY WINDS UP TO 40 MPH AND
FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS EXPECTED. IF CAUGHT
OUTSIDE...CROUCH DOWN IN A LOW SPOT...AWAY FROM TALL OBJECTS. THIS
STORM MAY PRODUCE PEA SIZE HAIL. TORRENTIAL RAINS WILL CAUSE
PONDING OF WATER ON ROADS...AND MINOR FLOODING OF POOR DRAINAGE
AREAS.

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Florida, 2003Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2003

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive.