Alert archive / Florida / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2003
Severe Thunderstorm Warning 74, NWS Tampa Bay, FL
NWS Tampa Bay, FL issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Jul 16, 2003, 5:09 PM EDT for Manatee County, Florida. It was in force for 36 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Jul 16, 2003, 5:09 PM EDT (21:09 UTC)
- Expired
- Jul 16, 2003, 5:45 PM EDT
- In force
- 36 min
- Issued by
- NWS Tampa Bay, FL
- Area
- Counties, with a storm outline in the text
County Manatee County, FL
Did it verify
Not verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow found no qualifying storm report inside this severe thunderstorm warning while it was in force. That is not proof nothing happened: reports are thin where few people live.
Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.
The nearest sounding before it
Tampa Bay, FL (KTBW), launched 12:00Z, 9.2 hours before the alert went out and 33 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 2857 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -24 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 669 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 9 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 7 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 21 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.
000 WUUS52 KTBW 162109 SVRTBW FLC081-162145- BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL 509 PM EDT WED JUL 16 2003 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN RUSKIN HAS ISSUED A * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR... NORTHEASTERN MANATEE COUNTY IN FLORIDA. * UNTIL 545 PM EDT * AT 509 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WITH LARGE HAIL...OVER NORTHEASTERN MANATEE COUNTY...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 5 MPH. * THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT... DUETTE. MYAKKA HEAD. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CONTAIN WIND GUSTS OF 60 MPH OR HIGHER...AND HAIL THE SIZE OF PENNIES OR LARGER. MOVE TO A PLACE OF SAFETY. WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH WILL CAUSE SOME STRUCTURAL DAMAGE...MAINLY TO TREES AND POWER LINES. POORLY ANCHORED ROOFS...MOBILE HOMES...AND SHEDS ARE ALSO AT RISK. QUARTER SIZE HAIL IS LIKELY. MOVE INDOORS IMMEDIATELY. && LAT...LON 2763 8208 2760 8225 2738 8216 2743 8207 $$
What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Tampa Bay, FL wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Jul 16, 1:52 PM EDT, 3 hours 17 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Jul 16, 1:52 PM EDT, 3 hours 17 minutes before
WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL 152 PM EDT WED JUL 16 2003 CURRENTLY...VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOP DEPICTS WELL DEVELOPED EAST COAST SEA BREEZE AND EXPANDING AREA OF CONVECTION ALONG IT VIA 88D RETURNS FROM THE CAPE SOUTH...WITH THE WEST COAST BOUNDARY JUST GETTING UNDERWAY WITH ADDITIONAL CONVECTION FIRING ALONG IT FROM SOUTHERN PINELLAS COUNTY NORTH TO BROOKSVILLE...AND IN THE VICINITY OF NAPLES. LAPS SOUNDING DATA SHOWS AMPLE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ACROSS THE FA...SO AM EXPECTING AN INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE OF STORMS THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. WITH WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWING DRIER MID LEVEL AIR MOVING NWWD ACROSS SOUTHERN MOST ZONES...SOME STORMS COULD BECOME QUITE STRONG OR EVEN SEVERE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS BEFORE FINALLY WINDING DOWN AFTER SUNSET. GIVEN THIS WILL INCLUDE WORDING FOR SOME STORMS POSSIBLY STRONG IN THE 5PM ZONE RELEASE FOR THE EVENING HOURS. SHORT TERM(THURS-FRI)...LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE IN SYNOPTIC SCALE PATTERN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH MODELS AGAIN FAIRLY SIMILAR WITH THEIR INDIVIDUAL SOLUTIONS. THE FORECAST AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE SANDWICHED IN BETWEEN DEEP LAYERED RIDGING TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST AND TO THE NORTHWEST...WHILE WEAK UPPER TROUGHINESS AND 50H SHEAR AXIS PERSISTS ACROSS THE SERN STATES AND NRN PENINSULA. SUBTLE DIFFERENCES IN MODELS WITH RESPECT TO MOISTURE LEVELS WITH THE GFS CONTINUING TO DEPICT SLIGHTLY LESS MOISTURE AND CONTINUED LOWER POPS...WHILE THE NGM/ETA CONTINUE TO BE SOMEWHAT WETTER LOOKING. GIVEN THE 50H SHEAR AXIS TO THE NORTH...VERY WEAK TO NON-EXISTENT 1000-500MB FLOW SUPPORTING EAST/WEST SEA BREEZES...AM INCLINED TO FAVOR THE HIGHER POP SOLUTION ADVERTISED BY BOTH ETA/FWC. GIVEN THIS PLAN TO ADVERTISE AROUND CLIMO-LEVEL POPS (50%) DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...AND 20-30% RANGE FOR THE EVENING TIME FRAMES. GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES AGAIN FAIRLY SIMILAR AND ACCEPTED... BUT PREFER BLEND OF HIGHER FWC/MET POPS VS LOWER MAV NUMBERS. EXTENDED(SAT-WED)... LATEST LONG RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW WEAK SFC RIDGE MEANDERING OVER THE FL PENINSULA IN WARM MOIST ENVIRONMENT. EXPECT TYPICAL SUMMERTIME MAINLY DIURNAL CONVECTION WITH NEAR CLIMO TEMPS AND POPS. MARINE...SURFACE RIDGE AXIS PROGD TO MEANDER ABOUT OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS WILL FAVOR A SE-SLY FLOW ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE RIDGE AXIS...WITH A SOUTH TO SWLY FLOW TO THE NORTH. NON-EXISTENT GRADIENT WILL FAVOR ONSHORE SEA BREEZES EACH AFTERNOON. NO HIGHLIGHTS EXPECTED. FIRE WEATHER...NO CONCERNS. PRELIMINARY #S BKV 070/091 070/090 2525 TPA 074/090 075/090 2525 SRQ 075/089 073/089 2525 GIF 073/091 075/092 3535 FMY 073/092 074/092 3535 .TBW...NONE. JCM
Hazardous weather outlook, Jul 16, 5:55 AM EDT, 11 hours 14 minutes before
FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-161500- WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL 555 AM EDT WED JUL 16 2003 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT: ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP BETWEEN 11 AM AND 1 PM ALONG THE GULF COAST SEA BREEZE AND WHERE THE SEA BREEZE AND BAY BREEZES INTERSECT AROUND TAMPA AND SAINT PETERSBURG. THESE STORMS WILL CONTAIN OCCASIONAL CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...A BRIEF DOWNPOUR...AND WIND GUSTS TO 25 MPH. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP BETWEEN 1 AND 4 PM...AND SHOULD BECOME MOST NUMEROUS NORTH OF A TAMPA BAY TO LAKELAND LINE. THE STORMS WILL CONTINUE IN SOME AREAS UNTIL SUNSET...THEN FADE TO SHOWERS. VERY LIGHT STEERING FLOW WILL ALLOW STORMS TO FORM JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE THIS AFTERNOON. STRONGER STORMS THIS AFTERNOON WILL PRODUCE FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WHICH MAY PRODUCE URBAN FLOODING IN POOR DRAINAGE AREAS...AND WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH. A POCKET OF COOL AIR WELL ABOVE THE SURFACE MAY ALLOW A FEW STORMS TO REACH SEVERE LIMITS...WITH THE MAIN THREATS BEING PENNY SIZE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY: SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY. LIGHT SOUTHWEST STEERING FLOW MAY HELP INITIATE A FEW EARLY MORNING STORMS NEAR THE SUNCOAST GENERALLY FROM PINELLAS COUNTY NORTHWARD...ESPECIALLY FROM FRIDAY ON. OTHERWISE...STORMS WILL TEND TO OCCUR BETWEEN NOON AND SUNSET. .SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS FOR UPDATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE WARNINGS OR ADVISORIES...LATER TODAY. FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TBW BSG
In the hours before
Special weather statement, Jul 16, 2:15 PM EDT, 2 hours 54 minutes before
FLZ050-161900- SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL 215 PM EDT WED JUL 16 2003 ...STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHERN PINELLAS COUNTY THROUGH 3 PM EDT... A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEARLY STATIONARY...WILL AFFECT SAINT PETE BEACH...GULFPORT...SAINT PETERSBURG AND LEALMAN...UNTIL 300 PM EDT. FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS EXPECTED. IF CAUGHT OUTSIDE...CROUCH DOWN IN A LOW SPOT...AWAY FROM TALL OBJECTS. TORRENTIAL RAINS WILL CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADS...AND MINOR FLOODING OF POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. AT 208 PM EDT A FUNNEL CLOUD WAS OBSERVED AT 5TH AVENUE AND 20TH STREET IN SAINT PETERSBURG WITH THIS THUNDERSTORM. MCMICHAEL
Special weather statement, Jul 16, 3:00 PM EDT, 2 hours 9 minutes before
FLZ049-161945- SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL 300 PM EDT WED JUL 16 2003 ...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT CENTRAL PASCO COUNTY... A STRONG THUNDERSTORM...NEARLY STATIONARY...WILL AFFECT MOON LAKE ESTATES AND LAND O LAKES...UNTIL 345 PM EDT. GUSTY WINDS 40 TO 50 MPH MAY CAUSE LOOSE OBJECTS TO BLOW AROUND. MINOR DAMAGE TO TREE LIMBS AND WIRES IS POSSIBLE. EXCESSIVE CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS EXPECTED IF OUTSIDE...CROUCH DOWN IN A LOW SPOT...AWAY FROM TALL OBJECTS. IF INDOORS...REFRAIN FROM USING ELECTRICAL APPLIANCES. HAIL UP TO ONE HALF INCH IN DIAMETER IS EXPECTED. TORRENTIAL RAINS WILL CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADS...AND MINOR FLOODING OF POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.
Special weather statement, Jul 16, 4:00 PM EDT, 1 hour 9 minutes before
FLZ065-162030- SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL 400 PM EDT WED JUL 16 2003 ...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT EASTERN LEE COUNTY... A THUNDERSTORM MOVING NORTHWEST AT 10 MPH...WILL AFFECT RURAL EASTERN LEE COUNTY...10 MILES SOUTHEAST OF LEHIGH ACRES...UNTIL 430 PM EDT. GUSTY WINDS UP TO 40 MPH AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS EXPECTED. IF CAUGHT OUTSIDE...CROUCH DOWN IN A LOW SPOT...AWAY FROM TALL OBJECTS. THIS STORM MAY PRODUCE PEA SIZE HAIL. TORRENTIAL RAINS WILL CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADS...AND MINOR FLOODING OF POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.
Special weather statement, Jul 16, 4:30 PM EDT, 39 minutes before
FLZ065-162115- SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL 430 PM EDT WED JUL 16 2003 ...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT SOUTH LEE COUNTY... THUNDERSTORMS...MOVING WEST AT 10 MPH...WILL AFFECT ESTERO AND AREAS NEAR SOUTHWEST INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT...UNTIL 515 PM EDT. GUSTY WINDS 40 TO 50 MPH MAY CAUSE LOOSE OBJECTS TO BLOW AROUND. FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS EXPECTED. IF CAUGHT OUTSIDE...CROUCH DOWN IN A LOW SPOT...AWAY FROM TALL OBJECTS. HAIL UP TO ONE HALF INCH IN DIAMETER IS POSSIBLE. TORRENTIAL RAINS WILL CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADS...AND MINOR FLOODING OF POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.
The office that day
Everything else NWS Tampa Bay, FL issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 16, 4:35 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | TBW | Lee | 40 min |
Nearby
Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Florida, 2003Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2003
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive.