Severe Thunderstorm Warning 71, NWS Tampa Bay, FL

WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
130 PM EDT MON JUL 14 2003

CURRENTLY...88D SHOWING SCT CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER MUCH OF THE
AREA...EVEN STILL OVER THE E GULF WATERS. LOW LEVEL BOUNDARIES
HELPING TO KEEP CONVECTION GOING OVER THE GULF WATERS...SINCE
USUALLY BY THIS TIME OF DAY ACTIVITY SHOULD BE DIMINISHING OVER THE
WATER. LOOKING AT CLOUD STREETS ON THE VISIBLE LOOP AND CURRENT
STORM MOTIONS...LOOKS LIKE THE STEERING IS MORE SOUTHERLY RATHER
THAN SE. THUS...TOUGH TO FIGURE WHERE BEST COVERAGE WILL BE. IT MAY
STILL TRY TO FOCUS MORE INLAND LATER TODAY/EVENING AS A WEAK SW
WEST COAST SEA BREEZE TRIES TO PUSH/REFORM CONVECTION EASTWARD.

--SHORT TERM--
WEAK LOW LEVEL FLOW PATTERN WILL CONTINUE NEXT FEW DAYS. MODELS IN
GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH KEEPING A WEAK SFC RIDGE AXIS OVER THE NCENT
FA TUES...THEN SAGGING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE CENT FA/PENIN BY WED.
LIGHT SSE FLOW ON TUE...BECOMING MORE SSW OVER THE N FA AND N OF THE
RIDGE AXIS ON WED OVER THE N FA. SW FLOW NOT EXPECTED TO BE STRONG
ENOUGH OVER THE N FA ON WED TO BOTHER TRYING TO CHANGE TIMING OF
CONVECTION TO MORNING AND EARLY AFTN. WILL KEEP MAINLY AFTN AND
EVENING BOTH DAYS FOR NOW. MODEL GUIDANCE TEMPS SIMILAR AND SEEM
REASONABLE.

--EXTENDED--(THU-MON) LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE MUCH WEAKER WITH
EASTERLY WAVE AND TUTT FEATURE TO MOVE INTO THE SE THEN GULF LATE
WEEK. LATEST SAT IMAGE OF THIS WAVE OVER HISPANOLA NOW WEAK AS
WELL...WHICH GUIDANCE HAS NOW PICKED UP ON. SO...SE FLOW TO CONTINUE
WITH SFC RIDGE OVER THE AREA INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH TYPICAL DIURNAL
CONVECTIVE PATTERN WITH CLIMO TEMPS. SFC RIDGE MAY SINK SOUTH LATE
IN THE PERIOD WITH FLOW BECOMING MORE S/SW.

--MARINE--
THE BIGGEST CONCERN WAS POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE
TO MOVE INTO THE CENT GULF WED AND THURS. HOWEVER...LATEST GFS NOW
HAS NOTHING...A BIG DIFFERENCE FROM PREV RUNS. CURRENT SATELLITE
SHOWS A WEAK WAVE AROUND HISPANOLA/E CUBA...AND IT APPEARS TO BE
WEAKER THAN YESTERDAY THIS TIME...SO CURRENT MODELS MAY BE ON TRACK
WITH NO WAVE MOVING INTO THE GULF. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR. FOR
NOW...WILL EDGE WINDS/SEAS BACK DOWN AGAIN FOR WED/THURS.

PRELIM #S:
BKV 071/090 071/090 3635
TPA 074/090 075/090 3535
GIF 074/092 074/092 3635
SRQ 072/090 073/089 3535
FMY 074/091 074/091 3535=

.TBW...NONE.

MORALES

FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-141500-

WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
555 AM EDT MON JUL 14 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT:

...NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY FROM TAMPA BAY
NORTHWARD...

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP BETWEEN 1 PM AND 4 PM...MAINLY
ACROSS THE COASTAL COUNTIES ALONG THE GULF COAST SEA BREEZE AND
WHERE STORM OUTFLOWS AND SEA OR BAY BREEZES INTERSECT.  THESE
INITIAL STORMS WILL CONTAIN BRIEF DOWNPOURS...WIND GUSTS TO 25
MPH...AND OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING.

STORMS WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS AFTER 4 PM...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF A
TAMPA TO WINTER HAVEN LINE. STRONGER CELLS WILL CONTAIN FREQUENT
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...TORRENTIAL RAINS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
URBAN FLOODING IN POOR DRAINAGE AREAS...AND WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH.

ONE OR TWO STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE AGAIN TODAY...WITH DAMAGING WIND
THE PRIMARY THREAT.

STORMS WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN AFTER SUNSET...BUT OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING
AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS MAY CONTINUE UNTIL MIDNIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY:

FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES COMBINED WITH
AMPLE MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE THE LIKELIHOOD OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF A TAMPA TO LAKELAND
LINE. STRONGER CELLS WILL CONTAIN LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...FREQUENT
LIGHTNING...AND GUSTY WINDS.  ONE OR TWO STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE.

FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...ONLY SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AS SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE
AREA.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS FOR
UPDATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE WARNINGS OR ADVISORIES...LATER TODAY.

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT
HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TBW

BSG

FLZ050-141945-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
304 PM EDT MON JUL 14 2003

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT PINELLAS COUNTY...
A SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PINELLAS
COUNTY...INCLUDING PALM HARBOR AND SAFETY HARBOR...UNTIL 345 PM EDT.
GUSTY WINDS 40 TO 50 MPH MAY CAUSE LOOSE OBJECTS TO BLOW AROUND.
MINOR DAMAGE TO TREE LIMBS AND WIRES IS POSSIBLE. FREQUENT CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING IS EXPECTED. IF CAUGHT OUTSIDE...CROUCH DOWN IN A
LOW SPOT...AWAY FROM TALL OBJECTS. THIS STORM MAY PRODUCE PEA SIZE
HAIL. RAINFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR WILL OCCUR. MOTORISTS
CAN EXPECT PONDING OF WATER ON ROADS...AND MINOR FLOODING OF POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS.

JILLSON

FLZ048-049-142015-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
334 PM EDT MON JUL 14 2003

...EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING WILL AFFECT BROOKSVILLE...
A THUNDERSTORM...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH...WILL AFFECT SPRING
HILL...MASARYKTOWN AND BROOKSVILLE...UNTIL 415 PM EDT. GUSTY WINDS
UP TO 40 MPH WILL OCCUR. HAIL UP TO ONE HALF INCH IN DIAMETER IS
EXPECTED. RAINFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR WILL OCCUR.
MOTORISTS CAN EXPECT PONDING OF WATER ON ROADS...AND MINOR FLOODING
OF POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.