Severe Thunderstorm Warning 70, NWS Tampa Bay, FL

WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
117 PM EDT SUN JUL 13 2003

CURRENTLY...88D LOOKS SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY WITH LINE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NE GULF AND INTO LEVY COUNTY. CONVECTION
IS ALONG A LINGERING BOUNDARY AND OVERALL LOW LEVEL INVERTED SFC
TROF THAT EXTENDS WELL NE FROM CLAUDETTE. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
TSTMS MOVE WIDESPREAD OVER ECENT AND SCENT FL THAN IT WAS THIS TIME
YESTERDAY...AND IT IS MOVING NW TOWARD THE FA. CIRRUS BLOW OFF FROM
CONVECTION OVER THE NE GULF MAY STABILIZE THE N FA FOR A FEW MORE
HOURS.

--SHORT TERM--
A WEAK DEEP LAYER RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN OVER THE N FA THROUGH THE
PERIOD (TUE)...WITH LIGHT SE LOW LEVEL FLOW...BECOMING ONSHORE NEAR
THE COAST EACH DAY. BEST DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND RESIDUAL SHEAR
AXIS REMAINS OVER THE N FA AT LEAST THROUGH MON...THEN MOISTURE MAY
LOWER A BIT BY TUES. THE ETA IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH LOWER
MOISTURE FROM S TO N BY TUES...BUT WILL KEEP FORECAST MORE
CONSERVATIVE FOR NOW. THUS...WILL KEEP LIKELY POPS N FA MON...SCT
REST OF THE AREA...THEN SCT/CHC POPS ALL AREAS ON TUE. TIMING FOR
PRECIP SHOULD BE AFTN/EVENING. TEMPS HAVE BEEN TRICKY WITH CLOUDS
AND RAIN. IF A PARTICULAR LOCATION DOESNT GET RAINFALL IN THE
EVENING...MIN TEMPS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S...OTHERWISE...
LOWER 70S.

--EXTENDED--(WED-SUN)SE FLOW TO CONTINUE WITH SFC RIDGE AXIS N OF THE
AREA THRU LATE WEEK. EASTERLY WAVE TO MOVE FROM THE NW CRIB INTO THE
SE GULF THEN CENTRAL GULF FROM MID TO LATE WEEK. GRADIENT BETWEEN
RIDGE AND WAVE TO TIGHTEN PREVENTING SIGNIFICANT WEST COAST
SEABREEZE. WILL ADJUST WINDS TO REFLECT THIS. TEMPS TO REMAIN NEAR
CLIMO WITH ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE IN PLACE AND EXPECT HIGH END
SCT DIURNAL POPS. BY NEXT WEEKEND SFC RIDGE TO SINK SOUTH WITH LOW
PRESSURE AREA MOVING INTO THE DEEP SOUTH TRANSITIONING THE AREA INTO
SW FLOW.

--MARINE--
NO HIGHLIGHTS OR CONCERNS THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY TUES. BY TUES NIGHT
AND WED...SE WINDS MAY INCREASE...ESPEC S WATERS...IN RESPONSE TO
EASTERLY WAVE POSSIBLY MOVING IN TO THE S GULF. GFS HAS HAD
DIFFERING FCST FOR THIS FEATURE...WITH THE LATEST ONE TAKING A WAVE
INTO THE CENT GULF THURS AND FRI. WILL TREND WINDS UP LATER IN
THE PERIOD TOWARD 15 KTS WITH SEAS 3-4 FT S WATERS FOR NOW...AND
CONTINUE MONITORING TREND.

PRELIM #S:
BKV 071/090 071/090 3635
TPA 074/090 075/090 3535
GIF 073/091 074/091 2535
SRQ 072/089 072/090 3434
FMY 073/091 074/092 2424=

.TBW...NONE.

MORALES/DAVIS

FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-131500-

WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
550 AM EDT SUN JUL 13 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT:

...NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY FROM TAMPA BAY
NORTHWARD...

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP BETWEEN 1 PM AND 4 PM...MAINLY
ACROSS THE COASTAL COUNTIES ALONG THE GULF COAST SEA BREEZE AND
WHERE STORM OUTFLOWS AND SEA OR BAY BREEZES INTERSECT.  THESE
INITIAL STORMS WILL CONTAIN BRIEF DOWNPOURS...WIND GUSTS TO 25
MPH...AND OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING.

STORMS WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS AFTER 4 PM...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF A
TAMPA TO WINTER HAVEN LINE. STRONGER CELLS WILL CONTAIN FREQUENT
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...TORRENTIAL RAINS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
URBAN FLOODING IN POOR DRAINAGE AREAS...AND WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH.

ONE OR TWO STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE AGAIN TODAY...WITH DAMAGING WIND
THE PRIMARY THREAT.

STORMS WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN AFTER SUNSET...BUT OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING
AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS MAY CONTINUE UNTIL MIDNIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY:

FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...AMPLE MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE THE LIKELIHOOD
OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.  WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES CROSSING THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO MAY ENHANCE LOCAL
RAINFALL...MAINLY FROM THE TAMPA BAY AREA NORTHWARD...AND ALLOW ONE
OR TWO STORMS TO BECOME SEVERE.

FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL
OVERSPREAD THE PENINSULA AS A STRONGER DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO THE
GULF FROM THE EAST.  SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS ALL OF WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA EACH DAY.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS FOR
UPDATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE WARNINGS OR ADVISORIES...LATER TODAY.

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT
HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TBW

BSG