Severe Thunderstorm Warning 69, NWS Tampa Bay, FL

WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
110 PM EDT SAT JUL 12 2003

CURRENTLY...MID CLOUDS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY BURN OFF. ONLY REAL
CONVECTION IS OVER LEVY COUNTY...AIDED BY STRONGER HEATING AND
PRESENCE OF BOUNDARY OVER THE GULF. PLENTY UNSTABLE...SO STILL EXPECT
SHOWERS AND TSTMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS REST OF THE FA LATER THIS AFTN AS
HEATING SLOWLY GETS STRONGER.

--SHORT TERM--
VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL PATTERN THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
WEAK UPPER TROFINESS CONTINUES OVER THE EASTERN U.S. WITH A WEAK
DEEP LAYER RIDGE AXIS OVER THE NCENT PENIN. HAVE BEEN SKEPTICAL OF
MODELS KEEPING LIGHT SE LOW LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE FA GIVEN UPPER
TROF AXIS SO CLOSE TO THE NORTH...BUT EACH DAY HAS VERIFIED WITH
GENERALLY WEAK SE SFC FLOW. THUS...WILL CONTINUE WITH LIGHT SE LOW
LEVEL FLOW BECOMING ONSHORE NEAR THE COAST IN THE AFTN. TOUGH TO
PICK WHERE BEST CONVERGENCE FOR CONVECTION WILL BE GIVEN HOW LIGHT
THE FLOW IS. SO WILL KEEP UNIFORM 40-50% AFTN AND EVENING POPS.

--EXTENDED--(TUE-SAT)
LATEST GFS SOLUTION KEEPS DEEP SE FLOW OVER THE AREA THRU THE PERIOD
KEEPING TEMPS AND POPS NEAR CLIMO WITH LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING
SEABREEZE CONVECTION. SOLUTION SUGGESTING EASTERLY WAVE TO MOVE FROM
THE NW CARIB INTO THE SOUTHERN THEN SW GULF BY LATE WEEK/NEXT WEEKEND
WITH LITTLE EFFECT ON OUR AREA.

--MARINE--
NO MAJOR HIGHLIGHTS THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE SWELL POTENTIAL FROM
CLAUDETTE WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED...BUT DIRECTION OF FETCH
FROM THE STORM TOWARD OUR COAST IS NOT VERY GOOD...GIVEN STORM
MOVING AWAY TOWARD THE NW AND NOT STRENGTHENING AT THIS TIME.

PRELIM #S:
BKV 072/090 071/091 2535
TPA 077/090 076/090 2535
GIF 077/092 076/091 3535
SRQ 076/090 075/090 2435
FMY 076/091 075/091 3535=

.TBW...NONE

MORALES/DAVIS

FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-121500-

WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
535 AM EDT SAT JUL 12 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT:

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE GULF COAST SEA
BREEZE...AND AT THE INTERSECTION OF LAND AND WATER BREEZES AROUND
TAMPA BAY...BETWEEN NOON AND 2 PM.  THE INITIAL ACTIVITY WILL AFFECT
COASTAL COUNTIES.  AFTER 2 PM...ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL
DEVELOP...ACROSS BOTH COASTAL AND INLAND LOCATIONS.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE BEYOND SUNSET THIS
EVENING.

MOST STORMS WILL CONTAIN OCCASIONAL CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...A
BRIEF DOWNPOUR...AND WIND GUSTS TO 25 MPH.  STRONGER CELLS WILL
CONTAIN FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...TORRENTIAL RAINS
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING URBAN FLOODING IN POOR DRAINAGE AREAS...AND
WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH.  ONE OR TWO STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE...WITH
DAMAGING WIND THE PRIMARY THREAT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY:

AMPLE MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE THE LIKELIHOOD OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.  WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES CROSSING THE
NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO MAY ENHANCE LOCAL RAINFALL...AND ALLOW ONE
OR TWO STORMS TO BECOME SEVERE...EACH AFTERNOON.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY.

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT
HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TBW

BSG

FLZ042-121945-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
302 PM EDT SAT JUL 12 2003

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT CITRUS COUNTY...
THUNDERSTORMS...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 5 TO 10 MPH...WILL AFFECT
LECANTO AND BEVERLY HILLS...UNTIL 345 PM EDT. GUSTY WINDS UP TO
50 MPH MAY CAUSE LOOSE OBJECTS TO BLOW AROUND. SOME DAMAGE TO TREE
LIMBS AND WIRES IS POSSIBLE. FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS
EXPECTED. IF CAUGHT OUTSIDE...CROUCH DOWN IN A LOW SPOT...AWAY FROM
TALL OBJECTS. HAIL UP TO ONE HALF INCH IN DIAMETER IS EXPECTED.
TORRENTIAL RAINS WILL REDUCE VISIBILITY TO NEAR ZERO AT TIMES.
MOTORISTS MAY WANT TO DELAY TRAVEL.

JILLSON

FLZ042-121930-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
317 PM EDT SAT JUL 12 2003

...FUNNEL CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE IN NORTHERN CITRUS COUNTY...

LAW ENFORCEMENT OFFICIALS REPORTED A FUNNEL CLOUD NEAR LECANTO
AROUND 3:05 PM. THE FUNNEL CLOUD HAS SINCE DISSIPATED.

FUNNEL CLOUDS CAN BECOME BRIEF...SMALL...BUT DANGEROUS TORNADOES.
MOVE INDOORS IMMEDIATELY...AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

&&

LAT...LON 2895 8258 2882 8243 2907 8212 2923 8230