Severe Thunderstorm Warning 68, NWS Tampa Bay, FL

WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
115 PM EDT FRI JUL 11 2003

CURRENTLY...SCT SHOWERS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY INCREASE OVER THE E GULF
WATERS...AND ALSO ALONG WEST COAST SEA BREEZE...MAINLY FROM TPA
NORTH. EXPECT COVERAGE TO INCREASE ALONG THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE...
THEN DRIFT INLAND...ESPEC TPA NORTH.

NOTE: SENT UPDATE TO INCREASE POPS FOR TPA NORTH GIVEN CURRENT
ACTIVITY.

--SHORT TERM--
WEAK DEEP LAYER RIDGE AXIS WILL HANG ON OVER THE CENT FA/PENIN
THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS. STILL SKEPTICAL OF THE MODELS SHOWING LOW
LEVEL SE FLOW DESPITE THE UPPER TROF OVER THE E AND SE U.S. SAT AND
SUN. WILL GO WITH GENERALLY WEAK SSE FLOW BECOMING ONSHORE NEAR THE
COAST BOTH DAYS FOR THE S 2/3 OF THE FA....GO MORE SSW FLOW ACROSS
THE N FA...CLOSER TO THE UPPER TROF AND NORTH OF THE SFC RIDGE AXIS.
SLIGHTLY BETTER DEEP LAYER MOISTURE SNEAKS DOWN FROM THE UPPER TROF
TO THE NORTH ON SAT. WILL NUDGE POPS UP TO 50% MAINLY NEAR THE COAST
WITH THE SEA BREEZE...BUT 40% ELSEWHERE BOTH DAYS.

--EXTENDED--
LITTLE CHANGE SEEN THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.  SURFACE RIDGE
WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH GENERALLY A LIGHT EAST TO
SOUTHEAST FLOW AND SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.  LATEST GFS STILL TRYING TO BRING TROPICAL
DISTURBANCE ACROSS THE AREA LATE NEXT WEEK...BUT WILL WAIT AND SEE
FOR NOW AND CONTINUE TO GO WITH MORE TYPICAL SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.  TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AT OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

--MARINE--
ASSUMING CLAUDETTE CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MOVE NW...STAYING WELL AWAY
FROM THE FA...EXPECT NO BIG PROBLEM THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. WILL
STILL NEED TO MONITOR SWELL POTENTIAL...ESPECIALLY IF CLAUDETTE
MOVES SLOWER OVER THE SW GULF. GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW ANOTHER
TROPICAL WAVE MOVING INTO THE W CARIBBEAN ON WED...BUT IT IS NOW
MUCH WEAKER WITH THE CIRCULATION THAN PREV RUN. EXPECTED MAINLY SE
FLOW THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH ONSHORE COASTAL FLOW EACH AFTN. SCT
MAINLY LATE AFTN AND EVENING SHOWERS/TSTMS.

PRELIM #S:
BKV 072/091 071/090 2535
TPA 076/091 075/090 2535
GIF 076/092 075/091 2534
SRQ 075/090 075/090 2434
FMY 076/092 075/091 2434=

.TBW...NONE

MORALES/CLOSE

FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-111400-

WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
600 AM EDT FRI JUL 11 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY:

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG AN AFTERNOON SEA
BREEZE AND MOVE INLAND BECOMING SCATTERED OVER INTERIOR COUNTIES.
SOME STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG NEAR INTERSECTING SEA BREEZE AND
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. THE PRIMARY THREAT FROM THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WILL
BE DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. A
FEW STORMS MAY HAVE WIND GUSTS TO NEAR 50 MPH LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY:

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING EACH AFTERNOON.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED TODAY.

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT
HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TBW

FLZ039-112045-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
408 PM EDT FRI JUL 11 2003

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST LEVY
COUNTY THROUGH 5 PM EDT...

...THUNDERSTORMS...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 10 TO 15  MPH...WILL AFFECT
WILLISTON AND BRONSON...THROUGH 5 PM EDT. FREQUENT CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING IS EXPECTED. IF CAUGHT OUTSIDE...CROUCH DOWN IN A
LOW SPOT...AWAY FROM TALL OBJECTS. THIS STORM MAY PRODUCE PEA SIZE
HAIL. TORRENTIAL RAINS WILL REDUCE VISIBILITY TO NEAR ZERO AT TIMES.
RUSH HOUR MOTORISTS MAY WANT TO DELAY TRAVEL...OR REDUCE SPEEDS.

MCMICHAEL