Severe Thunderstorm Warning 65, NWS Tampa Bay, FL

WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
100 PM EDT TUE JUL 8 2003

JULY HEAT/HUMIDITY WILL DOMINATE THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK WITH
LOWER THAN NORMAL PCPN CHANCES AND COVERAGE.  BY LATE
WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK...UPPER TROUGH TRIES TO REESTABLISH ACROSS
THE NE U.S...WHICH MAY ALLOW REMNANT MOISTURE FROM TROPICAL WAVE NOW
MOVING INTO THE W CARIBBEAN TO ARRIVE...PERHAPS INCREASING CLOUD
COVER/PCPN CHANCES AND LOWERING DAYTIME TEMPS A HAIR.

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT GIVEN NON-DESCRIPT FLOW UNDERNEATH FLAT 500
MB RIDGE.

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT - THURS):
WHAT YOU SEE IS WHAT YOULL GET.  HOT/HUMID DAYS AND MUGGY NIGHTS
WITH LOW PCPN CHANCES FOR EARLY JULY.  WIND FIELDS ARE VARIABLE...
SO ANY TSTMS THAT DEVELOP WILL BE DRIVEN BY SEA/BAY BREEZES.  HEAT
INDEX VALUES A BIT UNCOMFORTABLE...BUT STILL UNDER ADVISORY CRITERIA.

EXTENDED (THURS NIGHT - TUE):
SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL SETUP ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL FLORIDA...AROUND
LAKE OKEECHOBEE...LATE IN THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND AS UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH DEEPENS OVER EASTERN U.S.  RIDGE AXIS WILL THEN DRIFT NORTH
AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK AS TROUGH MOVES OFF EAST COAST OF U.S. AND
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.  ONLY QUESTION THAT
REMAINS IS HOW MUCH MOISTURE IF ANY SNEAKS UP FROM THE TROPICAL WAVE
MOVING ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN AND ACROSS YUCATAN PENINSULA LATE IN THE
WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.  LATEST GFS KEEPS DEEPEST MOISTURE SOUTH OF
THE FORECAST AREA AND WILL CONTINUE TO GO WITH SCATTERED MAINLY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY WITH
TEMPERATURES REMAINING NEAR NORMAL.

MARINE...LIGHT GENERALLY ESE WINDS EXCEPT FOR AFTN SEA BREEZE
NEAR SHORE EACH AFTN THROUGH FRI.  PERHAPS A SUBTLE SHIFT TO
S/SE OVER THE WEEKEND...WILL DEPEND ON HOW STRONG NE U.S. UPPER
TROUGH IS.

FIRE WX...NO CONCERNS WITH LIGHT WINDS IN THE MIXED LAYER AND RH
ABOVE 50 PERCENT.

PRELIM NUMBERS:
TPA 077/093 077/093 2323
FMY 075/093 075/093 2323
GIF 075/094 075/094 2323
SRQ 075/092 075/092 2323
BKV 073/094 073/094 2323

.TBW...NONE

BSG/PRC

FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-081400-

WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
600 AM EDT TUE JUL 8 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY:

ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE IS HIGHER THAN THE PAST FEW DAYS AND
SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL KEEP AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WARM. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE INTERIOR AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND
MOVE NORTHWEST TOWARDS THE COAST. A WEAK SEA BREEZE WILL DEVELOP
AROUND 4 PM AND WILL ENHANCE THE CONVECTION. SOME STORMS
MAY BECOME STRONG NEAR INTERSECTING SEA BREEZE AND OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES. THE PRIMARY THREAT FROM THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WILL BE
DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. A FEW
STORMS MAY HAVE WIND GUSTS TO NEAR 50 MPH LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY:

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH THE WEEKEND RESULTING IN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING
A BIT EARLIER EACH DAY.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED TODAY.

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT
HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TBW