Severe Thunderstorm Warning 61, NWS Tampa Bay, FL

WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
224 PM EDT FRI JUL 4 2003

--CURRENTLY--A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ACROSS LEVY
COUNTY WITH OTHER ACTIVITY MOVING INTO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST
CWFA.

--SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-MON)--DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE ALONG THE GULF
COAST WILL GET SHUNTED NORTHWARD AS A SURFACE RIDGE/NOW ACROSS THE
NORTH-CENTRAL CWFA/ MOVES INTO NORTH FL FOR SAT AND SUN. THIS WILL
PROVIDE A GENERALLY SOUTHEAST FLOW ACROSS THE REGION ALONG WITH A
MOIST TROPICAL AIRMASS/ PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RANGE 1.8 TO
2.2 INCHES/ COMPLIMENTS OF AN EASTERLY WAVE THAT MOVES ACROSS SOUTH
AND MUCH OF CENTRAL FL DURING THE WEEKEND. BY MON THE WAVE IS OUT
OVER THE GULF AND THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS IS DRIFTING BACK SOUTH.
THE ETA CONTINUES TO BE THE FAVORED MODEL...IT HAS HANDLED THE
RIDGE LOCATION AND WIND FIELDS BETTER...IT IS ALSO SLIGHTLY DRIER
THAN THE GFS. WILL KEEP POPS SCATTERED IN THE 40 TO 50 % RANGE WITH
THE HIGHER VALUES IN THE SOUTH AND CENTRAL CWFA ON SAT WITH ACTIVITY
STARTING LATE MORNING OVER THE INTERIOR AND THEN PUSHING TOWARD THE
COAST IN THE EVENING AND THEN OFFSHORE. TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN NEAR
NORMAL.

--EXTENDED (TUE-FRI)--DEEP LAYER RIDGING WILL RESIDE ACROSS THE
REGION WITH SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MAINLY SCATTERED DURING THE AFTERNOONS...WITH TEMPERATURES ON
THE WARM SIDE.

--MARINE--AS RIDGE MOVES NORTH WINDS BECOME SOUTHEAST/ EXCEPT
FOR AFTERNOON SEAS BREEZES NEAR THE COAST/ AND PICK UP SOME AS
THE WAVE MOVES THROUGH BUT STAY BELOW HIGHLIGHTS. AS THE RIDGE
DROPS BACK SOUTH WINDS VEER TO SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE
NORTHERN MARINE AREAS.

PRELIM NUMBERS:
BKV 071/092 071/091 2424
TPA 075/091 075/090 2424
GIF 074/092 074/092 2524
SRQ 075/092 075/092 2424
FMY 074/092 074/092 2524

.TBW...NONE.

RKR

FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-041400-

WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
600 AM EDT FRI JUL 4 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY:

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WITH SURFACE RIDGE OVER CENTRAL
FLORIDA. SEA BREEZE WILL SET UP THIS AFTERNOON WITH CELLS MOVING
GENERALLY TOWARDS THE NORTH. THE PRIMARY THREAT FROM THUNDERSTORMS
TODAY WILL BE WIND GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS...DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY:

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE TO NORTHERN FLORIDA FOR THE
WEEKEND...THEN SHIFT BACK TO CENTRAL FLORIDA NEXT WEEK. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP EACH DAY ALONG SEA BREEZE AND OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED TODAY.

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT
HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TBW

EJ

FLZ060-062-042045-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
355 PM EDT FRI JUL 4 2003

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT CHARLOTTE AND SARASOTA COUNTIES...

AT 355 PM...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED AN AREA
OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHWEST CHARLOTTE COUNTY...MAINLY
ALONG THE INTERSTATE 75 CORRIDOR. THIS AREA OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHWEST AT 15 TO 20 MPH...ALONG THE WEST
COAST SEA BREEZE.  THE STORMS WILL AFFECT CLEVELAND...PUNTA
GORDA...CHARLOTTE HARBOR AND PORT CHARLOTTE THROUGH 445 PM EDT.
GUSTY WINDS UP TO 40 MPH...SMALL HAIL AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.

IF OUTSIDE...CROUCH DOWN IN A LOW SPOT...AWAY FROM TALL OBJECTS. IF
INDOORS...REFRAIN FROM USING ELECTRICAL APPLIANCES UNTIL THE STORMS
PASS.

MORALES

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN  FL
419 PM EDT FRI JUL 4 2003

TIME(EDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0355 PM    5 S PUNTA GORDA CLT AP    FL   .75 INCH HAIL
07/04/03   CHARLOTTE                      CITIZEN DRIVING ALONG I-75
                                          ESTIMATED 3/4 INCH HAIL AND
                                          WIND GUSTS OF 45 MPH.

RFM

FLZ052-056-057-042115-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
425 PM EDT FRI JUL 4 2003

...EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING WILL AFFECT NORTHWEST HIGHLANDS...NORTHEAST
HARDEE...AND SOUTHERN POLK COUNTIES...THUNDERSTORMS...MOVING
NORTH AT 15 MPH...WILL AFFECT AVON PARK AND FROSTPROOF...UNTIL 515
PM EDT. GUSTY WINDS UP TO 40 MPH WILL OCCUR. EXCESSIVE CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING IS EXPECTED IF OUTSIDE...CROUCH DOWN IN A LOW
SPOT...AWAY FROM TALL OBJECTS. IF INDOORS...REFRAIN FROM USING
ELECTRICAL APPLIANCES. HAIL UP TO ONE HALF INCH IN DIAMETER IS
EXPECTED. TORRENTIAL RAINS WILL CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON
ROADS...AND MINOR FLOODING OF POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

DAVIS

FLZ050-042215-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
522 PM EDT FRI JUL 4 2003

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT PINELLAS COUNTY...
THUNDERSTORMS...MOVING NORTHWEST AT 10 MPH...WILL AFFECT PINELLAS
PARK...HIGHPOINT...LARGO...CLEARWATER... AND THE BEACHES UNTIL 615
PM EDT. GUSTY WINDS 40 TO 50 MPH MAY CAUSE LOOSE OBJECTS TO BLOW
AROUND. MINOR DAMAGE TO TREE LIMBS AND WIRES IS POSSIBLE. FREQUENT
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS EXPECTED. IF CAUGHT OUTSIDE...CROUCH
DOWN IN A LOW SPOT...AWAY FROM TALL OBJECTS. THIS STORM MAY PRODUCE
PEA SIZE HAIL. TORRENTIAL RAINS WILL CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON
ROADS...AND MINOR FLOODING OF POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.