Severe Thunderstorm Warning 52, NWS Tampa Bay, FL

WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
217 PM EDT MON JUN 16 2003

CURRENTLY...SCATTERED CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER THE FORECAST AREA
AND GENERALLY MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST TO NORTH AT AROUND 15 MPH.
CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD AS
THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES WITH PRIMARY THREAT BEING LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL.

SHORT TERM (TON-WED)...SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN JUST NORTH OF
THE FORECAST AREA INTO WEDNESDAY CONTINUING THE SOUTHEAST FLOW OF
DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE.  THUS WE WILL SEE A CONTINUATION OF THE
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE COASTAL
COUNTIES WHERE BEST CONVERGENCE WILL ONCE AGAIN OCCUR ALONG WEST
COAST SEA BREEZE.  WILL LEAVE CURRENT FORECAST POPS OF 50 TO 60
PERCENT DURING THE AFTERNOONS AND 20 TO 40 PERCENT AT NIGHT.  NO BIG
CHANGES IN TEMPERATURE SEEN THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AND WILL CONTINUE
TO GENERALLY GO WITH PERSISTENCE.  MORE CLOUDS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY
AND WILL GO A COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER THAN LAST FEW DAYS.

EXTENDED (WED NIGHT-MON)...RIDGE FLATTENS OUT FOR WED NIGHT AND
THURSDAY TIME FRAME WITH UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE MOVING ACROSS FA.
BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS MOST OF PENINSULA AND LOTS OF TROPICAL
MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN HIGHER THAN CLIMO POPS THROUGH THURSDAY.
SURFACE RIDGE WILL TRY TO RE-ESTABLISH ITSELF ACROSS SOUTHERN FA
OVER THE WEEKEND BUT WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND SEA BREEZE
BOUNDARIES WILL CONTINUE TO FIRE SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING
CONVECTION EACH DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO CLIMO EXCEPT FOR
THURSDAY WHEN HIGH TEMPS COULD BE 2 TO 4 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL DUE TO
EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER.

MARINE...SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY THEN BECOME
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS RIDGE FLATTENS OUT.  SPEEDS
WILL REMAIN AROUND 10 KNOTS OR LESS INTO WEDNESDAY AND THEN INCREASE
SOME THURSDAY.

FIRE WEATHER...NO HIGHLIGHTS.

PRELIMINARY NUMBERS:
BKV 072/090 071/088 3636
TPA 076/090 076/088 3636
GIF 074/091 074/090 3536
SRQ 074/089 074/087 3636
FMY 074/091 074/088 3636

.TBW...NONE.

PRC/EJ

FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-161500-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
530 AM EDT MON JUN 16 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY:
A MOIST TROPICAL AIR MASS ACROSS WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA
WILL HELP TO FUEL SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS. THESE STORMS
WILL BEGIN ABOUT MIDDAY FOR INLAND AREAS...WITH THE FORMATION AREAS
SHIFTING TOWARD THE COAST DURING THE AFTERNOON. BY EVENING THE STORMS
WILL BE DRIFTING OFF THE COAST AND OVER THE GULF.

THE HEAVIER THUNDERSTORMS WILL GENERATE GUSTY WINDS IN EXCESS OF 35
MPH...DANGEROUS LIFE THREATENING LIGHTNING...AND TEMPORARY DOWNPOURS
WHICH MAY CAUSE LOCALIZED FLOODING OF POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY:
A TROPICAL WAVE MOVING INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO DURING MIDWEEK
WILL KEEP THUNDERSTORMS SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY. FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WILL SEE A RETURN
TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON STORMS.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT
HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TBW