Severe Thunderstorm Warning 50, NWS Tampa Bay, FL

WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
103 PM EDT FRI JUN 13 2003

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THRU SUNDAY): NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE
LOWER HALF OF THE NATION/ WITH A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH
THE MID-WEST/ WILL CONTINUE INTO SAT...AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
REMAINS ACROSS THE GULF AND THE SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC. A WEAK TUTT
SYSTEM WILL STAY IN THE VICINITY OF THE BAHAMAS. AT THE SURFACE A
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE/ ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA MID-DAY FRIDAY/ MOVES
INTO NORTHERN FL SAT.

   ON SUNDAY A STRONGER SHORT WAVE DROPS INTO THE PLAINS...
DIGGING OUT A DEEPER TROUGH OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY
AND BACKING THE WINDS ALOFT OVER THE GULF AND MUCH OF FL WITH THE
SURFACE RIDGE AXIS SHIFT BACK ACROSS CENTRAL FL. THE TUTT LOW
MEANDERS BETWEEN SOUTHEAST FL AND THE BAHAMAS.

     FAVOR THE MESO-ETA AS MODEL OF CHOICE GIVEN ITS RECENT TRACK
RECORD WITH WINDS AND IT HAS A BETTER HANDLE ON MOISTURE...THE GFS
HAS BEEN TOO DRY ACROSS THE STATE. WILL TRIM THE FORECAST BACK SOME
...AS FAR AS POPS GO...FOR THE WEEKEND BUT STAY IN THE HIGH SCATTERED
RANGE FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH A TYPICAL SEA BREEZE
FORMATION PATTERN. LITTLE CHANGE IN FORECASTED TEMPS...LOWS 70 TO 75
AND HIGHS NEAR 90 TO LOWER 90S.

EXTENDED (MON THRU THU):
LAST TWO RUNS OF GFS HAVE TRENDED BACK TOWARDS A SE LOW LEVEL FLOW
EARLY NEXT WEEK...COURTESY OF WEAKNESS BETWEEN CORE OF 500 MB RIDGE E
OF THE BAHAMAS AND MORE PRONOUNCED (YET STILL WEAK) TROUGH
APPROACHING THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.  THE GFS ALSO PUMPS
TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO EXTREME S FL/CUBA COURTESY OF A TUTT-TYPE
FEATURE...BUT IT LOOKS TO BE A BIT OVERDONE.

ITS A BIT TOO SOON TO DETERMINE WHETHER THIS ENHANCES RAINFALL AND
RAIN CHANCES BY MID WEEK...SO HAVE ELECTED TO LEAVE MUCH OF THE
PACKAGE ALONE...SAVE FOR EASING THE SFC WINDS AROUND TO THE E/SE
LATER MON THROUGH THU.  WILL TRY TO FINE TUNE A BIT MORE OVER THE
WEEKEND.

MARINE: NO PROBLEMS/ OTHER THAN TSTMS WITH GUSTY WINDS/ WITH FAIRLY
LIGHT SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH FLOW BUT SHIFTING ONSHORE IN AFTERNOON SEA
BREEZES.

FIRE WEATHER: MINIMUM RH VALUES IN THE 50% RANGE PRECLUDE ANY
WATCHES/FLAGS.

PRELIM NUMBERS:
BKV 70/91 71/92 3535
TPA 75/90 75/90 3535
GIF 73/92 74/92 2535
SRQ 75/90 75/90 3535
FMY 74/93 75/92 2434

.TBW...NONE.

RKR/BSG

FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-131530-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
550 AM EDT FRI JUN 13 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY:

LIGHT WINDS WILL AGAIN SET THE STAGE FOR ACTIVE SEA BREEZE FRONTS
TODAY. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY HEAVY RAINS...WHICH MAY CAUSE MINOR FLOODING OF POOR
DRAINAGE AND LOW LYING AREAS. SMALL STREAMS MAY BRIEFLY EXCEED BANK
FULL. THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL CONTAIN FREQUENT LIGHTNING...STRONG
AND GUSTY WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH...AND SMALL HAIL.

WHEN SKIES DARKEN...MOVE INDOORS. IF THERE IS TIME...UNPLUG
APPLIANCES AND ELECTRICAL EQUIPMENT. WAIT UNTIL THE STORM ENDS BEFORE
USING THE TELEPHONE OR RUNNING WATER.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY:

A NORMAL SUMMERTIME WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE WITH SCATTERED
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED THIS AFTERNOON.

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT
HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TBW

FLZ065-132200-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
514 PM EDT FRI JUN 13 2003

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM MOVING INTO SOUTHERN LEE COUNTY...

A THUNDERSTORM...MOVING NORTHWEST AT 15 MPH...WILL AFFECT BONITA
SPRINGS AND AREAS EAST OF BONITA SPRINGS... THEN MOVE TO NEAR ESTERO
THROUGH 600 PM EDT. GUSTY WINDS 40 MPH AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING IS EXPECTED. IF CAUGHT OUTSIDE...CROUCH DOWN IN A LOW
SPOT...AWAY FROM TALL OBJECTS. HEAVY RAINS WILL CAUSE PONDING OF
WATER ON ROADS.