Severe Thunderstorm Warning 47, NWS Tampa Bay, FL

WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
149 PM EDT TUE MAY 20 2003

THE SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED WX PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF
THE WORKWEEK...BUT IT APPEARS THAT A BREAK IS FORTHCOMING JUST IN
TIME FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

IN THE SHORT TERM...MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT EARLY ON...
BUT THE GFS CONTINUES TO DEVELOP LOW LEVEL CYCLONE A BIT STRONGER
THAN OTHER MODELS ON THURSDAY.  THAT SAID...THE ETA HAS NOW COME
CLOSER TO THIS SOLUTION AT THE SFC...THOUGH ITS 850-700 MB
DEPICTION SEEM MORE REALISTIC GIVEN OPEN-NATURE OF DEVELOPING
TROUGH.  PREFER A BLEND...STILL LEANING TOWARD THE ETA.

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT - THURS):
CONVECTION OFF TO A SLOW START THIS AFTN WITH ACTIVITY MOVING
STEADILY SSW OVER E CENTRAL FL IN N STEERING FLOW BEHIND DEPARTING
500 MB TROUGH. EXPECT BOUNDARIES FROM THESE CELLS TO MERGE WITH
LATE AFTN/EARLY EVE WCSB ESPECIALLY FROM TAMPA BAY S...BUT LIKELY
CLIMBING TOWARD THE NATURE COAST ON FUTURE BOUNDARIES.  IN ANY
CASE...WILL CARRY A REMAINDER AFTN/EVE PERIOD TO COVER.  FOR WED...
ALL MODELS SHOWING A DRY PUNCH FROM THE NE ASSOCIATED WITH AREA OF
NVA UNDER WEAK 500 MB RIDGING.  WITH CONTINUED NE FLOW...EXPECT NO
MORE THAN ISOLD ACTIVITY INLAND AND SCT TOWARD THE GULF COAST WHERE
DEEPER MOISTURE WILL RESIDE.  SLIGHTLY LOWERED DWPTS WILL MAKE IT A
TAD MORE COMFORTABLE THAN RECENT DAYS.

THESE CONDS DONT LAST AS 500 MB TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED JET MAKE
TRACKS TOWARDS THE AREA WED NIGHT/THURS.  LATEST DATA SUGGEST PLENTY
OF CLOUDS AND DECENT PCPN THURS...NOT A BAD THING CONSIDERING THE
TIME OF YEAR.  TEMPS WILL BE SUPPRESSED SOME BY THE CLOUDS/RAIN...
BUT HOW MUCH IS IN QUESTION ESPECIALLY S OF TAMPA BAY.  SVR THREAT
WILL NEED TO MONITORED GIVEN LOW LEVEL TURNING OF THE WINDS...AND
INCREASING SPEED SHEAR ALOFT.

EXTENDED (THURS NIGHT - TUE):
WILL CONTINUE WITH THE GFS/MRF PATTERN OF TROUGH FROM THE GREAT LAKES
TO THE GULF COAST DEEPENING AS A SURFACE LOW MOVES NORTHEASTWARD FROM
THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. THESE FEATURES WILL PROVIDE CLOUDS AND SOME
SCT PCPN INTO SAT...WHEN THE LOW DRAGS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE
STATE WITH SOME DIRER AIR MOVING IN...ALTHOUGH SOME LOCATIONS COULD
STILL SEE SOME LOW END AFTERNOON POPS INTO SUNDAY. SURFACE LOW
TRACKS UP INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES AS UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO
DEEPEN OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND MOVES TOWARD THE ATLANTIC AS
FRONTAL BOUNDARY BEGINS TO LIFT BACK TOWARD THE CWFA. TEMPS COOL
SLIGHTLY BUT REMAIN NEAR NORMAL.

MARINE:  E WINDS RUNNING AT 10-15 KT...AND THESE SHOULD CONTINUE
INTO EARLY AFTN BEFORE SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS.  SEA BREEZE WILL
PROBABLY NOT DEVELOP ALONG THE LEVY COAST.

FIRE WX:  RH WILL DROP TOWARD 40 PERCENT IN SOME AREAS WED...BUT
LIGHT MIXING WINDS SHOULD KEEP DISPERSION IN CHECK.  NO PROBLEMS
THURS.

PRELIM NUMBERS:
TPA 071/088 072/086 3336
FMY 071/090 071/088 3334
GIF 069/089 071/086 3226
SRQ 070/087 071/085 3336
BKV 066/089 068/084 3336

.TBW...NONE.

THANKS FOR THE COORD...MIA.

88/GOLDSMITH
09/RUDE

FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-201530-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
533 AM EDT TUE MAY 20 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY:

AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE AGAIN EXPECTED ACROSS THE
AREA AS AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES REACHING THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90
INCREASE INSTABILITY. THE SEA BREEZE NEAR THE GULF COAST DURING THE
LATE AFTERNOON HOURS WILL INTENSIFY THE THUNDERSTORMS. THE STRONGEST
STORMS WILL CONTAIN GUSTY WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH...LOCAL RAINFALL
IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES...FREQUENT LIGHTNING...AND HAIL.

WHEN SKIES DARKEN...MOVE INDOORS. IF THERE IS TIME...UNPLUG
APPLIANCES AND ELECTRICAL EQUIPMENT. WAIT UNTIL THE STORM ENDS BEFORE
USING THE TELEPHONE OR RUNNING WATER.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY:

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY..WHILE
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR WILL ALLOW FOR ONLY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVENING.

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT
HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TBW