Severe Thunderstorm Warning 42, NWS Tampa Bay, FL

WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
1256 PM EDT MON MAY 19 2003

THE UPPER LOW EFFECTING OUR WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TO SINK SOUTH TO
NEAR THE YUCATAN AND BECOME DIFFUSE.  IN ITS WAKE A COMPLEX SYSTEM
OF OF A DEEP UPPER LOW NEAR BERMUDA A RIDGE AXIS ALONG THE U.S. EAST
COAST AND A WEAK DIGGING TROUGH NEAR THE GREAT LAKES.  THE TROUGH
OVER THE GREAT LAKES EVENTUALLY DIGS IN ALONG THE EAST COAST AND
BECOMES THE DOMINANT FEATURE.

FOR THE SHORT TERM WE STAY IN LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW AND A SUMMER
LIKE PATTERN.  THE UPPER LOW WILL HAVE A DECREASING INFLUENCE ON
OUR WEATHER HENCE THE POPS WILL BE DECREASING DAILY THROUGH
MIDWEEK. BUT THERE WILL BE ADEQUATE INSTABILITY AND PLENTY OF
MOISTURE FOR SUMMER LIKE AFTERNOON CONVECTION.

.EXTENDED(THU-MON)...UPPER LOW OVER THE ATLANTIC SLIDES EAST AS
FRONTAL SYSTEM LINGERS OVER THE EASTERN SEA BOARD AND THE GULF
COAST INTO EARLY FRIDAY...WHEN GFS/MRF FORMS A SURFACE LOW ACROSS
THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES AS UPPER TROUGH DROPS INTO THE MID MISS
VALLEY AND THEN DEEPENS AS IT MOVES EAST. THE SURFACE LOW MOVES
NORTHWARD ALONG THE EAST COAST AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE STATE
AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE GULF REGION. WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY
IN THE MODELS WILL MAINTAIN THE CURRENT TREND IN THE EXTENDED. SCT
PCPN INTO FRIDAY AND THEN DECREASING BACK TO AFTERNOON/EVENING
TIMING FOR THE WEEKEND AND THEN SOME CLEARING MONDAY.

THERE ARE NO MARINE AND OR FIRE WEATHER ISSUES.

PRELIMINARY NUMBERS

TPA 074/089 073/090 4544
FMY 072/091 071/091 4544
GIF 072/092 071/091 2524
SRQ 074/087 072/088 4544
BKV 069/090 069/090 4544

.TBW...NONE.

SOBIEN/RUDE

FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-191530-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
535 AM EDT MON MAY 19 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY:

...SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...

A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS OVER FLORIDA WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY
UNSTABLE THIS AFTERNOON AS TEMPERATURES RISE TO NEAR 90. LATE DAY
SEA BREEZES WILL HELP FORM THUNDERSTORMS...A FEW OF WHICH MAY BECOME
SEVERE. THE BEST CHANCES WILL BE BETWEEN 3 PM AND 10 PM.

DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL ARE THE MAIN THREATS WITH ANY STORMS
THAT BECOME SEVERE TODAY. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR
LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS FOR POSSIBLE WATCHES OR WARNINGS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY:

SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR
THROUGH THE WEEK.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT
HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TBW