Severe Thunderstorm Warning 4, NWS Tampa Bay, FL

WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
330 PM EST FRI MAR 14 2003

CURRENTLY...ANOTHER QUIET AFTERNOON WITH A LOT OF DEBRIS CLOUDS FROM
CONVECTION OUT OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO.  WEST COAST SEA BREEZE HAS
BEGUN TO PUSH INLAND AND STILL EXPECT AN EAST COAST/WEST COAST SEA
BREEZE COLLISION OVER INTERIOR COUNTIES THIS EVENING WITH A COUPLE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE.

TON-SUN...UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL
CONTINUE TO DRIFT EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN STATES TONIGHT SATURDAY
NIGHT.  ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL OVERSPREAD THE FORECAST AREA
OVERNIGHT WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING AFTER MIDNIGHT AS VORT ENERGY WRAPS AROUND UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM.  HIGHEST POPS WILL REMAIN OVER NORTHERN ZONES TONIGHT.
LIKELY POPS ALL ZONES ON SATURDAY AS DEEPEST MOISTURE SHIFTS ACROSS
THE AREA.  18Z MESOETA IS INDICATING THAT BEST CHANCES OF RAIN WILL
BE LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING WITH SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR IN
THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS MOVING IN DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.  STILL SHOULD BE ENOUGH MOISTURE AROUND TO SEE SCATTERED
CONVECTION INTO SATURDAY EVENING...ESPECIALLY OVER INLAND AREAS.
ON SUNDAY...EXPECT TO SEE MORE SCATTERED DIURNAL CONVECTION AS SEA
BREEZE MOVES INLAND WITH BEST COVERAGE ONCE AGAIN OVER INLAND AREAS.

MON-FRI...SUBTROPICAL RIDGE FROM THE BAHAMAS THROUGH THE CARIBBEAN
SHOWS LITTLE SIGN OF BUDGING THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.  CUTOFF 500
MB LOW BECOMES ABSORBED IN W FLOW AS IT SHOOTS THROUGH THE MID ATLC
STATES MON...BUT PLENTY OF SW FLOW REMAINS BEHIND IT.  GFS CONTINUES
TO HAVE PROBLEMS RESOLVING MID WEEK SPRING STORM ACROSS THE NATIONS
MIDSECTION...BUT ITS DEVELOPMENT CONTINUES TO BRIEFLY BUMP UP THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TUE THROUGH EARLY WED.  UNLIKE YESTERDAYS RUNS...
THE APPROACHING TROUGH NOW GETS QUICKLY DAMPENED THU/FRI...WITH
ONLY A SLIGHT FLATTENING OF THE PERSISTENT RIDGE.

WX WISE...EXPECT A CONTINUATION OF WARM/HUMID WX MON-FRI WITH ISOLD-
SCT PCPN JUST ABOUT EACH DAY.  FEWER CLOUDS ARE LIKELY TUE AS UPPER
RIDGE BRIEFLY BUILDS.  12Z GFS NOW TRYING TO CLEAR THINGS OUT AGAIN
BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...BUT THIS WAS THE SOLUTION YESTERDAY (FOR
NEXT THURS) AND WONT BUY IT UNTIL SOME RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY
DEVELOPS.

MARINE...WINDS WILL BECOME EAST TONIGHT AND THEN VEER AROUND TO THE
SOUTHEAST SATURDAY MORNING AND THEN SOUTHWEST SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE MOVES BY TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION.  WINDS WILL
THEN BECOME RATHER LIGHT AND VARIABLE SATURDAY NIGHT AND GENERALLY
SOUTHWEST ON SUNDAY AS RIDGE AXIS STRENGTHENS TO THE SOUTH WITH
ANOTHER SURFACE LOW MOVING OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE
SOUTHERN U.S.

FIRE WEATHER...NO HIGHLIGHTS.

PRELIMINARY NUMBERS:
BKV 064/080 060/082 7732
TPA 068/079 067/081 4732
GIF 067/081 066/083 3733
SRQ 067/079 066/081 4732
FMY 068/083 067/084 2632

.TBW...NONE.

PRC/BSG

FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-141630-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
614 AM EST FRI MAR 14 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY:

...SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...

PATCHY EARLY MORNING FOG WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT WEST PENINSULA
FLORIDA THIS MORNING WITH SUDDEN VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS TO LOCALLY
ONE QUARTER MILE OR LESS. FOG WILL LIFT 8 TO 9 AM.

WITH THE APPROACH OF AN UPPER ATMOSPHERIC DISTURBANCE...SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AFTER 1 PM WITH
POSSIBLE STRONG STORMS OVER MAINLY THE INLAND PORTIONS OF THE
PENINSULA MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS IS PROBABLE
LATER TONIGHT. DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL ARE THE MAIN THREATS
WITH ISOLATED STRONGER STORMS. MOVEMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE TO
THE EAST.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS FOR
POSSIBLE WATCHES OR WARNINGS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY:

NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE PROBABLE DURING SATURDAY.
POSSIBLE HAIL AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS APPEAR TO BE THE PRIMARY
SEVERE THREATS WITH THIS ACTIVITY.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.