Severe Thunderstorm Warning 38, NWS Tampa Bay, FL

WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
910 AM EDT SUN MAY 18 2003

THE ATMOSPHERE IS VERY UNSTABLE THIS AFTERNOON AND MOISTURE IS IN
PLACE.  THE SEABREEZE WAS A LITTLE SLOW TO DEVELOP BUT IT IS
STARTING TO COME AROUND AS OF THE LAST OB OR TWO.  THE EAST COAST
SEABREEZE AND ITS RELATED CONVECTION IS MARCHING ACROSS THE STATE.  I
EXPECT SOME THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME
POTENTIALLY STRONG ONES LATE THIS AFTERNOON AFTER THE EAST COAST
SEABREEZE MAKES IT TO THE AREA.

MONDAY AFTERNOON WILL SEE MORE OF THE SAME EXCEPT FOR FOR
CONSIDERABLE SPEED DIVERGENCE ALOFT AS AIR ACCELERATES INTO AN UPPER
LOW IN THE CENTRAL GULF.  THE UPPER LOW...AND ITS REALLY KIND OF
DEEP WILL SLOWLY FILL AS IT DRIFTS SOUTHWARD OUT OF MISSISSIPPI AND
INTO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL.  THE MAIN TROUGH OR WHAT EVENTUALLY
BECOMES THE MAIN TROUGH SINKS SOUTH FROM NEW ENGLAND TO EAST OF THE
STATE.  THE UPPER LOW IN THE GULF EVENTUALLY GETS DISSOLVED INTO
MAIN TROUGH.

BY MIDWEEK OR SO A FRONT DRIFTS INTO SOUTH GEORGIA THE PUSHING THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SOUTHWARD.  THE SURFACE LOW JUST KIND OF SITS
OVER NORTHEAST FLORIDA THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.

NO MARINE OR FIRE WEATHER ISSUES

PRELIMINARY NUMBERS

TPA 090/073 089/073 3635
FMY 092/072 091/073 3635
GIF 092/071 091/071 2625
SRQ 089/074 088/072 3635
BKV 090/069 089/069 2635

.TBW...NONE.

SOBIEN

FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-181530-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
532 AM EDT SUN MAY 18 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY:
A COMBINATION OF AN WEAK UPPER LOW OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND
AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES WILL CREATE FAVORBALE CONDITIONS FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS...MANILY BETWEEN
2 AND 10 PM. SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LOCALLY STRONG WITH WIND
GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH...RAINFALL RATES OF 2 INCHES PER
HOUR...FREQUENT LIGHTNING...AND HAIL.

WHEN SKIES DARKEN...MOVE INDOORS. IF THERE IS TIME...UNPLUG
APPLIANCES AND ELECTRICAL EQUIPMENT. WAIT UNTIL THE STORM ENDS BEFORE
USING THE TELEPHONE OR RUNNING WATER.

DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY:

A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS WILL BE IN PLACE OVER FLORIDA THIS
WEEK...ALLOWING FOR SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS
EACH DAY.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT
HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TBW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN  FL
426 PM EDT SUN MAY 18 2003

TIME(EDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0307 PM    CITRUS SPRINGS            FL   1.00 INCH HAIL
05/18/03   CITRUS                         QUARTER SIZE HAIL.
                                          REPORTED BY STORM SPOTTER.

0315 PM    1 N CITRUS SPRINGS        FL   2.00 INCH HAIL
05/18/03   CITRUS                         HEN EGG SIZE HAIL.
                                          REPORTED BY CITIZEN/PUBLIC.

0325 PM    CITRUS SPRINGS            FL   1.25 INCH HAIL
05/18/03   CITRUS                         HALF DOLLAR SIZE HAIL.
                                          REPORTED BY STORM SPOTTER.

0359 PM    HERNANDO                  FL   1.00 INCH HAIL
05/18/03   CITRUS                         QUARTER SIZE HAIL.
                                          REPORTED BY STORM SPOTTER.

RFM