Severe Thunderstorm Warning 32, NWS Tampa Bay, FL

WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
217 PM EDT WED MAY 14 2003

CURRENTLY...SUBSIDENCE IN WAKE OF THE SHORT WAVE THAT MOVED THROUGH
EARLIER TODAY INITIALLY KEPT A LID ON CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...BUT
DURING THE PAST HOUR VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY/88D RETURNS NOW SHOW
A RAPIDLY DEVELOPING AREA OF CONVECTION ALONG THE WEST COAST SEA
BREEZE FROM TAMPA SOUTH SO WILL CARRY ISOLATED EVENING POP MENTION
(20%) MAINLY FOR INTERIOR SECTIONS FROM HILLSBOROUGH TO POLK COUNTY
SOUTH AS THE SEA BREEZE PUSHES INLAND. FURTHER NORTH DRIER AIR SHOULD
KEEP THINGS RELATIVELY QUIET.

TONIGHT...ONGOING EVENING CONVECTION WILL WIND DOWN AFTER SUNSET WITH
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING WITH SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT.
MAY SEE SOME PATCHY FOG IN SOME AREAS LATE TONIGHT BUT NOT ENOUGH TO
WARRANT ANY MENTION IN THE ZONES JUST YET. LIGHT SW-WLY FLOW WILL
KEEP COASTAL MIN TEMPS IN THE LOWER 70S OVERNIGHT WITH UPPER 60
DEGREE READINGS INTERIOR AND NORTH.

SHORT TERM(THURS-FRI)...MODELS CONSISTENT FROM PREVIOUS RUNS AND
ACCEPTED. MODELS DEPICT A SLOW INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE SETS UP ACROSS THE S-CENTRAL
PENINSULA AND ADJACENT GULF WATERS. THE SLOW INCREASE IN MOISTURE
ALONG WITH A SERIES OF WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVING SEWD IN
NWLY FLOW ALOFT AND AFTERNOON SEA/LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS
SHOULD SUPPORT SOME ISOLATED POPS ON THURSDAY AND LOW END SCATTERED
RANGE ON FRIDAY AS MOISTURE SLOWLY INCREASES. A SW-WLY STEERING FLOW
AROUND THE SFC RIDGE TO THE SOUTH WILL FAVOR POPS OVER INTERIOR ZONES
MAINLY DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. LIGHT SW-
WLY FLOW WILL KEEP COASTAL MIN TEMPS ON THE BALMY SIDE THE NEXT FEW
NIGHTS...WITH DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 80S. OTHERWISE 90 TO
THE LOWER 90S SHOULD SUFFICE FOR INLAND LOCATIONS. MODEL GUIDANCE IS
SIMILAR AND WILL USE A BLEND.

EXTENDED(SAT-WED)...WEAK UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES CONTINUE TO TREK OVER
WEAK UPPER RIDGING OVER THE GOMEX SAT INTO SUNDAY WITH CONTINUED
20-30 PCT PROSPECTS FOR SCT MAINLY AFTN/EVE SHWRS/TSTMS...WITH HIGHER
POPS FAVORING INLAND COUNTIES. THEREAFTER A WEAK UPPER TROF SLIPS EWD
OUT OF THE LOWER MS VALLEY INTO THE SE U.S. TO LIKELY INCREASE
INSTABILITY FOR 30-50 POPS OF AFTN/EVE TSTMS MON-TUES. AS UPPER
TROF PUSHES E OF AREA EXPECT A SLIGHT STABILIZATION JUST 20 POP
WDLY SCT AFTN TSTMS MAINLY INTERIOR BY WED. TEMPS TO REMAIN
SUMMERLIKE.

MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE SETTING UP ACROSS THE S-CENTRAL PENINSULA AND
ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS WILL RESULT IN TRANQUIL BOATING CONDITIONS
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. EXPECT A LIGHT SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY FLOW
WITH AN ENHANCED AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE COMPONENT DEVELOPING NEAR SHORE
EACH AFTERNOON. NO HIGHLIGHTS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

FIRE WEATHER...RHS AT OR BELOW 35% ACROSS INTERIOR PORTIONS OF LEVY
COUNTY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON VERIFYING RED FLAG WARNING FOR THIS AREA
AND WILL CONTINUE WITH RED FLAG THROUGH SUNSET. ON THURSDAY AND FRI
MOISTURE LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO RECOVER...WHICH SHOULD PRECLUDE THE
NEED FOR ANY ADDITIONAL WATCHES OR RED FLAGS ACROSS THE FA.

THANKS FOR COORD KMIA.

PRELIMINARY #S
TPA 072/087 073/089 01-2
FMY 072/089 072/091 -1-2
GIF 071/090 072/091 1213
SRQ 072/086 072/087 01-2
BKV 065/088 066/090 0112

.TBW...RED FLAG WARNING THROUGH SUNSET TODAY FOR INTERIOR SECTIONS OF
       LEVY COUNTY.

JCM/DMR

FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-141300-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
530 AM EDT WED MAY 14 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY: MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO RETURN AND INCREASE OVER
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA TODAY. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
MOVE OVER THE AREA COMBINING WITH THE AFTERNOON SEABREEZE TO
GENERATE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY
MAINLY OVER INTERIOR AND SOUTHERN AREAS.

A DRY AIRMASS REMAINS OVER THE NORTH FLORIDA PENINSULA WHICH WILL
PRODUCE LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES THIS AFTERNOON WORSENING THE THREAT
FOR WILDFIRES TODAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY:

A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS WILL EXTEND FROM THE ATLANTIC
OVER THE STATE CREATING SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WITH THE AFTERNOON
SEABREEZE COMBINING WITH SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVING
OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY ACROSS
THE AREA.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.