Severe Thunderstorm Warning 3, NWS Tampa Bay, FL

WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
151 PM EST SUN MAR 9 2003

IN THE SHORT TERM THE FRONT WILL SAG SLOWLY SOUTH...ALL MODELS AGREE
ON THAT.  WITH IT A LINE OF SHOWERS WILL SHIFT SOUTHWARD DOWN THE
STATE.  AN UPPER DISTURBANCE RACES EASTWARD AND OUT RUNS THE FRONT
BY THIS EVENING...SO IT IS QUESTIONABLE JUST HOW MUCH RAIN WILL
MAKE IT TO THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE AREA.  THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE
MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE FRONT.  THE MESOETA WANTS TO HOLD IT UP AS
ANOTHER WAVE AND JET STREAK MOVE OUT OF TEXAS.  IN FACT THE MESOETA
CREATES A NORTH/SOUTH BOUNDARY ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE STATE
WITH A LITTLE ISENTROPIC LIFT AND PERHAPS WEAK LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY AFTERNOONS.  WITH THE JET ENERGY
MOVING EAST ACROSS THE GULF I CAN BELIEVE THE FRONT HANGING UP OVER
SOUTH FLORIDA BUT THE MESO ETA SOLUTION SEEMS KIND OF UNUSUAL.
EVEN SO I WILL HOLD ONTO SMALL POPS ALONG THE SOUTHWEST COAST SOUTH
OF THE BAY FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...PARTLY OUT OF RESPECT FOR THE
MESO ETA AND PARTLY BECAUSE THE FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA AND THERE WILL BE SOME RESIDUAL MOISTURE.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS WEAK AND THE WINDS OFFSHORE FOR MOST
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.  FOR THE MOST PART WINDS AND SEAS WILL
REMAIN WELL BEHAVED.

.EXTENDED(WED-SUN)...WEAK RIDGE AXIS TO REMAIN ACROSS CENTRAL AND
NORTH FL...WITH GENERALLY EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWFA...
AS AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY LINGERS ACROSS THE SOUTH...PROVIDING LOW
AFTERNOON POPS MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTH THROUGH FRIDAY.
     THE SURFACE RIDGE IS REINFORCED FROM THE NORTH AS AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH PUSHES A WEAK FRONT THROUGH FL AS THE TROUGH MOVES OFF
THE EAST U.S. COAST EARLY IN THE WEEKEND. WILL KEEP TEMPS SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL DURING PERIOD.

.FIRE WEATHER...NO HIGHLIGHTS...ALTHOUGH RH VALUES MAY BE IN THE
40 PERCENT RANGE MONDAY ACROSS THE NORTH.

PRELIMINARY NUMBERS

BKV 058/080 053/082 3000
TPA 065/079 062/081 4101
GIF 066/081 061/084 4-0-
SRQ 065/079 061/080 42-2
FMY 069/084 064/085 32-2

.TBW...NONE.

SOBIEN/RUDE

FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-091630-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
531 AM EST SUN MAR 9 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY:

A COLD FRONT ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA WILL MOVE INTO WEST CENTRAL
FLORIDA THIS EVENING. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF
THE FRONT OVER THE NATURE COAST THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING...WITH SOME ISOLATED STORMS MAKING IT INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA.

WHEN SKIES DARKEN...MOVE INDOORS. IF THERE IS TIME...UNPLUG
APPLIANCES AND ELECTRICAL EQUIPMENT. WAIT UNTIL THE STORM ENDS BEFORE
USING THE TELEPHONE OR RUNNING WATER.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY:

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT
HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TBW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN  FL
418 PM EST SUN MAR 9 2003

TIME(EST)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0403 PM    NOBLETON                  FL   TORNADO
03/09/03   HERNANDO                       HERNANDO COUNTY SHERRIF
                                          DEPARTMENT IS REPORTING
                                          SEVERAL CALLS SEEING A
                                          TORNADO IN THE NOBLETON
                                          AREA. THERE ARE REPORTS OF
                                          TREES AND POWER LINES DOWN
                                          BUT NO FURTHER INFORMATION
                                          OF DAMAGE.

DS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN  FL
432 PM EST SUN MAR 9 2003

TIME(EST)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0415 PM    NOBLETON                  FL   TORNADO
03/09/03   SUMTER                         SUMTER COUNTY SHERIFF
                                          DEPARTMENT HAD REPORTS OF A
                                          TORNADO TOUCHING DOWN NEAR
                                          NOBLETON. DAMAGE REPORTS
                                          WERE UNAVAILABLE AT THIS
                                          TIME.

DS

FLZ052-092330-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
604 PM EST SUN MAR 9 2003

...STRONG WINDS WILL AFFECT NORTHERN POLK COUNTY...

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER NORTHWESTERN POLK COUNTY WAS MOVING
SOUTHEAST AROUND 30 TO 35 MPH. THIS THUNDERSTORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING STRONG GUSTY WINDS OF UP TO 40 MPH AS IT MOVES SOUTHEAST
TOWARD INTERSTATE 4 AND THE POLK CITY AREA BETWEEN 6 AND 630 PM EST.
ANOTHER STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN
PORTION OF POLK COUNTY NEAR INTERSTATE 4 AS WELL. THIS STORM WILL
ALSO BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG GUSTY WINDS OF UP TO 40 MPH.

IN ADDITION TO THE POTENTIALLY STRONG WINDS WITH THESE
STORMS...BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
BE POSSIBLE.

CONTINUE TO MONITOR NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS
CONCERNING THE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING.

MORALES