Severe Thunderstorm Warning 2, NWS Tampa Bay, FL

WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
145 PM EST SAT FEB 22 2003

THE MAIN WX ISSUE IS ON OUR DOORSTEP...THE WELL ADVERTISED SQUALL
LINE...BUT FOR THE BULK OF THE UPCOMING WEEK THE WX LOOKS QUITE NICE
WITH TEMPS MARCH-LIKE AND FAIRLY DRY CONDS...UNTIL THE NEXT FRONTAL
SYSTEM APPROACHES TOWARDS NEXT WEEKEND.

AVN CONTINUES TO BE THE MODEL OF CHOICE...AT LEAST FOR THE FIRST
FEW DAYS.  THE ETA HAS FOUND ITS WAY REGARDING A ROGUE VORT MAX
MOVING OFF W CUBA TOWARDS THE STRAITS ON SUN...NOW WITH A MUCH MORE
BENIGN SHEAR AXIS ALLOWING THE DEEP DRY AIR TO PENETRATE THROUGHOUT
THE ENTIRE CWFA.

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT - MON):
WILL CONTINUE MONITORING SQUALL LINE FOR THE NEXT 6 HOURS.
THEREAFTER...AVN (AS EXPECTED BASED ON TRENDS) RACES THE THIN BAND
OF MOISTURE THROUGH THE N 2/3 OF THE CWFA BY OR BEFORE 06Z...AND
THROUGH THE SW CORNER BY 12Z.  WILL RETARD THE CLEARING JUST A HAIR
S...BUT GO MORE OPTIMISTIC ELSEWHERE AS LOW LEVEL CAA/NW FLOW IS
FLEETING AND SFC HIGH PRACTICALLY BUILDS IN AT OR JUST AFTER
SUNRISE.

SUNDAY...AWESOME  SEASONAL TEMPS WILL FEEL WARMER IN LATE FEB
SUNSHINE OF WHICH THEYLL BE PLENTY.  LIGHT WINDS AS WELL.  A CLEAR
AND RATHER CHILLY NIGHT SUN NIGHT...DWPTS LOOK JUST HIGH ENOUGH TO
PRECLUDE FROST (VS HEAVY DEW) ACROSS THE NATURE COAST.  A FEW
CLOUDS MAY TRY TO SNEAK INTO SW FL AS DEEPER MOISTURE RETURNS A
LITTLE.

MONDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO SUNDAY...WITH MORE FAIR WX CU CENTRAL/S AS
DWPTS AND E/NE FLOW RETURN.  TEMPS WILL BE A BIT WARMER AS WELL...
MORE LIKE LATE MARCH.

EXTENDED (MON NIGHT - SAT):  A FEW WEAK IMPULSES RIDING NORTH OF THE
AREA ON MAINLY WSW FLOW THROUGH MID WEEK. SFC HIGH MOVES OFF TO THE
EAST WITH EASTERLY FLOW CONTINUING TO WARM AND MOISTEN THE
ATMOSPHERE. NEXT SYSTEM TO DEVELOP OVER TX AS UPPER TROF MOVES
OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. LATEST AVN SOLUTION A BIT FASTER THAN
LAST NIGHTS MRF WITH SFC SYSTEM MOVING THRU THE DEEP SOUTH THU INTO
THE MID ATLANTIC FRI WITH ATTENDANT COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE
AREA FRI AM NORTH THEN STALLING OVER THE SOUTH FL PENINSULA SAT.
WILL INTRODUCE HIGH END SCT POPS ALONG FRONT FRI THEN LEAVE SOME
LINGERING LOW END SCT POPS SAT. WILL HAVE TO SEE A FEW MORE RUNS TO
DEVELOP TIGHTER TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM. GUIDANCE TEMPS LOOK
REASONABLE.

FIRE WX:  APPEARS THAT DI VALUES ARE VERIFYING GIVEN SUSTAINED
SFC WINDS IN THE L20S WITH GUSTS ABOVE 30 AT MANY LOCATIONS...AND
XPORT WINDS NOT TOO DIFFERENT FROM THOSE SUGGESTED IN AM SOUNDING.
ON SUN...WILL HOIST WATCH FOR POLK/E PASCO N AS RH SHOULD BOTTOM NEAR
30 PERCENT OR SO.  BEST DURATIONS APPEAR TO BE N...BUT HIGHER TEMPS
AND POSSIBLE LOWER DWPTS DOWN THE CENTER OF THE STATE MAY REQUIRE AN
EXTENSION (AND WARNING).

MARINE:  NEARSHORE WINDS CERTAINLY IN SCA CRITERIA...WITH SUSTAINED
NEAR 20 KT AND GUSTS AT 30 KT RIGHT AT THE COAST...BUT BUOY DATA
OVER COOLER WATERS A BIT LESS.  NONETHELESS...SEAS HAVE BUILT
CLOSE TO FCST VALUES.  WILL CONTINUE SCA EARLY...BUT WINDS/SEAS
WILL SUBSIDE NICELY OVERNIGHT AND EARLY SUN LEAVING A NICE AFTN.
QUIET NE/E FLOW THEREAFTER.

THX COORD MLB/MIA.

PRELIM NUMBERS:
BKV 053/071 037/078 4000
TPA 057/070 048/076 6000
GIF 058/072 048/078 7000
SRQ 060/071 047/076 7000
FMY 063/065 053/080 8-00

.TBW...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY BONITA BEACH TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT
       60 NM INCLUDING TAMPA BAY.
    ...RED FLAG WARNING ALL ZONES THROUGH SUNSET.
    ...FIRE WX WATCH SUNDAY AFTN LEVY...SUMTER...POLK...AND INTERIOR
       PASCO...HERNANDO...AND CITRUS

BSG/RD

FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-222100-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
1035 AM EST SAT FEB 22 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.

DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT:

...LINE OF STRONG STORMS WILL AFFECT THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...
...ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS OVER INTERIOR COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON...
...OVERWASH POSSIBLE DURING HIGH TIDE FROM TAMPA BAY NORTH THIS
AFTERNOON...

SQUALL LINE:
A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL REACH THE NATURE COAST BETWEEN 1 AND 3
PM...THE TAMPA BAY AREA BETWEEN 4 AND 6 PM...SARASOTA AND BRADENTON
BETWEEN 5 AND 7 PM...AND THE FORT MYERS AREA BETWEEN 7 AND 9 PM.
STRONGER STORMS ALONG THE LINE WILL PRODUCE WIND GUSTS TO 50
MPH...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...AND BRIEF TORRENTIAL
RAINS.  ONE OR TWO STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE...WITH WIND GUSTS OF 60
MPH OR HIGHER AND PERHAPS A SMALL TORNADO OR WATERSPOUT.

INLAND THUNDERSTORMS:
INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AIR WILL PROMOTE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS FROM EAST PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL COUNTIES...MAINLY
FROM SARASOTA NORTH...AND POLK...SUMTER...HIGHLANDS...HARDEE...AND
DESOTO COUNTIES BETWEEN 2 AND 6 PM.  ONE OR TWO OF THESE STORMS MAY
BECOME SEVERE...WITH LARGE HAIL...60 MPH OR HIGHER WIND GUSTS...AND
PERHAPS A TORNADO.

OVERWASH:
TIDES WILL RUN 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL THIS AFTERNOON.  HIGH TIDES WILL
OCCUR NEAR THE PEAK OF THE RISES.  IN ADDITION...THE SQUALL LINE IS
EXPECTED TO CROSS THE NATURE COAST AT OR NEAR HIGH TIDE.  THESE
FACTORS MAY AID IN PUSHING SOME WATER ONSHORE...ESPECIALLY FROM
PASCO COUNTY NORTH.  CURRENT DATA SUGGEST OVERWASH OR PERHAPS MINOR
COASTAL FLOODING MAY AFFECT SOME AREAS. SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING
IS NOT EXPECTED.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS FOR
ADDITIONAL STATEMENTS...AND POSSIBLE SEVERE WEATHER WATCHES OR
WARNINGS...LATER TODAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY:

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT
HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TBW

BSG

FLZ048>052-055>057-060>062-065-222000-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
1110 AM EST SAT FEB 22 2003

...STRONG GUSTY WINDS THROUGH MID AFTERNOON...
SOUTH WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 20 TO 25 MPH...WITH GUSTS TO 35
MPH...LATE THIS MORNING.  THROUGH 2 OR 3 PM...EXPECT CONTINUED
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 40 MPH.  WINDS
SHOULD DIMINISH A BIT BY LATE AFTERNOON...TO 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS
TO 25 OR 30 MPH.

BOATERS PLANNING TRIPS ON AREA LAKES THIS AFTERNOON MAY WANT TO
POSTPONE THEM UNTIL SUNDAY WHEN WINDS WILL BE LIGHT.  RESIDENTS
SHOULD TIE DOWN ANY LIGHTWEIGHT OR LOOSE ITEMS ON THEIR PROPERTY.
THE WINDS MAY ALSO CREATE DRIVING DIFFICULTIES FOR HIGH PROFILE OR
LIGHTER WEIGHT VEHICLES.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS FOR
UPDATES.

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT
HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TBW (LOWER CASE)

BSG

FLZ042-048-049-222015-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
203 PM EST SAT FEB 22 2003

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS HEADED FOR THE CITRUS AND HERNANDO COAST...
A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS...MOVING EAST AT AROUND 30 MPH...WILL AFFECT
CRYSTAL RIVER AND HOMOSASSA SPRINGS BETWEEN 230 AND 3 PM EST...AND
WEEKI WACHEE THROUGH HERNANDO BEACH BETWEEN 3 AND 330 PM EST. GUSTY
WINDS 40 TO 50 MPH MAY CAUSE LOOSE OBJECTS TO BLOW AROUND. MINOR
DAMAGE TO TREE LIMBS AND WIRES IS POSSIBLE. TORRENTIAL RAINS WILL
REDUCE VISIBILITY TO LESS THAN 1 MILE.
&&
ONE OR TWO STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE AS THE LINE MOVES ONSHORE.  STAY
TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR LOCAL MEDIA FOR POSSIBLE WARNINGS
THROUGH MID AFTERNOON.

GOLDSMITH

MARINE LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN  FL
245 PM EST SAT FEB 22 2003

TIME(EST)  .....MARINE SUBZONE....   GMZ  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ......MARINE ZONE......

0354 PM    PORT RICHEY-HUDSON        850  36 KT MARINE TSTM WIND
02/22/03   TARP SPGS-SUWANNEE 20NM        WIND GUST OBSERVED AT THE
                                          PORT RICHEY COMPS STATION.

0430 PM    EGMONT-JOHNS PASS        853  40 KT MARINE TSTM WIND
02/22/03   ENGLWD-TARP SPGS 20NM          WIND GUST OBSERVED AT THE
                                          EGMONT KEY COMPS STATION.

0510 PM    TAMPA BAY                 830  38 KT MARINE TSTM WIND
02/22/03   TAMPA BAY WATERS               WIND GUST OBSERVED AT THE
                                          C-CUT RANGER MARKER PORTS
                                          STATION.

0512 PM    OLD TAMPA BAY             830  44 KT MARINE TSTM WIND
02/22/03   TAMPA BAY WATERS               WIND GUST OCCURRED AT THE
                                          KPIE ASOS SITE.

0515 PM    OLD TAMPA BAY             830  38 KT MARINE TSTM WIND
02/22/03   TAMPA BAY WATERS               WIND GUST OBSERVED AT THE
                                          PORT OF TAMPA PORTS
                                          STATION.

JTD

FLZ049>051-055-222300-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
308 PM EST SAT FEB 22 2003

...SQUALL LINE HEADED INTO THE TAMPA BAY METRO AREA BEFORE 5 PM...
...OVERWASH LIKELY IN SOME AREAS DURING HIGH TIDE...

AT 3 PM...THE LINE OF STORMS WAS 20 MILES WEST OF NEW PORT
RICHEY...30 MILES WEST OF TARPON SPRINGS...AND 40 MILES WEST OF
SAINT PETE BEACH.  THE LINE...MOVING AT 25 TO 30 MPH...WILL MOVE
ONSHORE IN PASCO COUNTY BY 330 PM...PINELLAS COUNTY BY 4 PM...AND
MANATEE COUNTY BETWEEN 430 AND 5 PM.

THESE STORMS CONTAIN FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...AND
TORRENTIAL RAINS REDUCING VISIBILITY BELOW 1 MILE.  IN
ADDITION...STRONGER STORMS ON THE LINE MAY PRODUCE WIND GUSTS
BETWEEN 40 AND 50 MPH.  RESIDENTS MAY WANT TO POSTPONE ACTIVITIES
UNTIL CONDITIONS IMPROVE AROUND OR JUST AFTER SUNSET.

THE COMBINATION OF STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS HAS PUSHED TIDES 2 FEET
ABOVE NORMAL.  HIGH TIDES AT LOCATIONS IN TAMPA BAY ARE BETWEEN 5
AND 6 PM...AROUND OR JUST AFTER PASSAGE OF THE STORMS.  TIDAL VALUES
MAY BRIEFLY RISE TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL...CREATING OVERWASH.

RESIDENTS OF DAVIS ISLANDS...SNELL ISLE...AND OTHER PRONE LOCATIONS
MAY WANT TO MOVE ANY EXPOSED PROPERTY ALONG THE SHORELINE INDOORS.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS FOR
UPDATES...AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS...AS THE LINE MOVES THROUGH.

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT
HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TBW (LOWER CASE)

BSG