Severe Thunderstorm Warning 11, NWS Tampa Bay, FL

WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
1220 PM EST TUE MAR 18 2003

CURRENTLY...SCT SHOWERS OVER THE E GULF CONTINUE TO MOVE E TOWARD
THE PENIN...BUT NOT REALLY INTENSIFYING. HOWEVER...STILL EXPECT UPPER
ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS AREA TO HELP PRODUCE SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS.

--SHORT TERM (WED-FRI)--
BIGGEST FCST PROBLEM CONTINUES TO BE WHETHER TO INCLUDE POPS...ESPEC
WED AND THURS. FA WILL BE BETWEEN UPPER RIDGE TO THE EAST OVER THE
ATLC AND A STRONG UPPER TROF OVER THE SCENT U.S.. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
WILL BE MARGINAL THROUGH THURS...BUT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/HUMIDITY
WILL STILL BE HIGH ENOUGH TO POSSIBLY WARRANT SLT CHC POPS FOR AT
LEAST THE INLAND LOCATIONS WED AND ALL AREAS THURS. BY FRI...THE
UPPER TROF WELL WEST OF THE FA BEGINS TO LIFT NE AND MINOR OUT. THE
ASSOCIATED SFC TROF/FRONT AND MOISTURE BAND SHIFTS SE TOWARD THE N FA
BY LATE DAY...BUT THE S 1/2 OF THE FA MAY NOT GET ANY SIGNIF PRECIP
TIL FRI NIGHT. LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH AFTN SW SEA BREEZES
WED...BUT GRAD MAY BE TOO STRONG THURS TO ALLOW MUCH OF A SEA BREEZE.
FLOW BECOMES MORE SW AHEAD OF NEXT UPPER TROF/FRONT FRI...WHICH
SHOULD HELP TO STABILIZE COASTAL AREAS CENT AND SOUTH. TEMPS WILL
CONTINUE WELL ABOVE NORMAL. NOTE GUIDANCE TEMPS (ESPEC MAV) LOOK A
LITTLE WARM NEXT FEW DAYS. WILL TREND TOWARD MET...STILL VERY WARM.

--EXTENDED (SAT-TUES)--
MODELS...PARTICULARLY THE GFS...SEEMS TO BE HAVING TROUBLE DECIDING
WHETHER ITS GOING TO BE DRY OR WET...ESPEC SUN-TUES. FRONT THAT
APPROACHES THE AREA LATER FRI...HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY PROGD BY
MODELS TO STALL OVER THE S FA SAT. WILL KEEP SMALL POP OVER THE S FA
SAT. MODELS CONTINUE SOME MOISTURE OVER THE S FA EVEN SUN...BUT FOR
CONSISTENCY SAKE...WILL HOLD OFF POPS SUN...BUT BRING BACK CHC POPS
LATE SUN NIGHT AND ALL OF MONDAY AS NEXT UPPER TROF MOVES ACROSS
THE FA. CLEARING AGAIN TUES.

--MARINE--
NO HIGHLIGHTS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY THURS...THEN WINDS AND SEAS
BEGIN TO INCREASE THURS WAS PRESS GRAD TIGHTENS BETWEEN WEAK SFC LOW
OVER THE SE U.S. AND THE RIDGE OVER THE W ATLC. WILL INDICATE SCEC
LEVEL WINDS THURS...WEAKENING AGAIN FRI AND SAT.

PRELIM #S:
BKV 063/086 066/087 -1-1
TPA 069/085 070/086 -1-2
GIF 069/088 070/088 1212
SRQ 068/086 070/087 -1-2
FMY 068/089 071/089 -1-2=

.TBW...NONE.

MORALES/DAVIS

FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-181700-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
557 AM EST TUE MAR 18 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY:

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY
OVER INLAND AREAS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 4.

WHEN SKIES DARKEN...MOVE INDOORS. IF THERE IS TIME...UNPLUG
APPLIANCES AND ELECTRICAL EQUIPMENT. WAIT UNTIL THE STORM ENDS BEFORE
USING THE TELEPHONE OR RUNNING WATER.

TEMPERATURES WILL RAISE INTO THE UPPER 80S OVER INLAND AREAS...THE
TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH HIGH HUMIDITIES WILL MAKE TEMPERATURES
FEEL AS THOUGH IT IS IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S.

DO NOT LEAVE CHILDREN OR PETS IN LOCKED VEHICLES. TEMPERATURES CAN
RISE ABOVE 130 DEGREES IN MINUTES...QUICKLY INCREASING THE CHANCE FOR
HEAT STROKE AND POSSIBLE DEATH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY:

RESIDENTS SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR SUMMER LIKE CONDITIONS AS AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 OVER INLAND
AREAS.  SEA BREEZES WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES COOLER NEAR THE COAST.

OTHERWISE HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.