Severe Thunderstorm Warning 108, NWS Tampa Bay, FL

WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
222 PM EDT TUE OCT 7 2003

CURRENTLY...PARTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE REGION WITH A GENERAL
SOUTHEAST FLOW AT 5 TO 10 MPH.  WEST COAST SEA BREEZE BEGINNING TO
MOVE INLAND FROM TAMPA BAY NORTH...BUT STILL PINNED ALONG THE COAST
SOUTH OF TAMPA BAY.  EXPECT A FEW SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM
ALONG SEA BREEZE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING...
ESPECIALLY FROM THE TAMPA BAY AREA NORTHWARD.

SHORT TERM (TNGT-THU)...A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S. OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS CONTINUING THE
THREAT OF A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.  THERE WILL
STILL BE NO REAL FOCUSING MECHANISM...EXCEPT FOR THE SEA BREEZES SO
DONT EXPECT MUCH MORE THAN ISOLATED TO LOW SCATTERED POPS AT THIS
TIME...WITH BEST CHANCES BEING ACROSS THE NORTH CLOSER TO THE UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL AND HAVE
GENERALLY GONE WITH PERSISTENCE FOR THE FIRST COUPLE OF DAYS.

EXTENDED (THU NGT-TUE)...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ATLANTIC WILL
MAINTAIN A GENERAL NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE CWA AS A SERIES OF
SHORT WAVES SWING THROUGH THE BASE OF A LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN U.S.  THE BULK OF THE ENERGY WILL STAY UP OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN STATES WITH ONLY ISOLATED POPS IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST.
THIS PATTERN CONTINUES INTO THE WEEKEND BUT THEN BEGINS TO CHANGE AS
THE LONG WAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE EAST COAST WITH A FRONT PUSHING
INTO THE NORTHERN PART OF THE STATE MON AND THEN SLIDING INTO NORTH
CENTRAL FL TUE.  TEMPERATURES AT OR JUST ABOVE CLIMO FOR MUCH OF THE
PERIOD BUT THEN DIPPING TO JUST BELOW BY THE EARLY PART OF NEXT
WEEK.  WILL NOT GO QUITE AS LOW AS MEX NUMBERS INDICATE FOR EARLY
NEXT WEEK AT THIS TIME AND WILL WAIT AND SEE IF TREND CONTINUES WITH
LATER MODEL RUNS.

MARINE...GENERAL SOUTHEAST FLOW THIS AFTERNOON WILL BECOME EAST
OVERNIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY AND THEN SHIFT TO MORE
NORTHEASTERLY.  WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN 15 KNOTS OR LESS SO NO
FLAGS ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

FIRE WEATHER...NO HIGHLIGHTS.

PRELIMINARY NUMBERS:
TPA 072/088 072/088 1222
FMY 071/089 071/089 1222
GIF 070/088 070/088 1222
SRQ 070/088 070/088 1222
BKV 066/087 066/087 3322

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

PRC/RKR

FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-081500-

WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
600 AM EDT TUE OCT 7 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY:

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CAUSE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP
AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE NORTH OF
TAMPA BAY ALONG THE SEA BREEZE.

THE STRONGEST THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTAIN FREQUENT LIGHTNING...
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IN EXCESS 2 INCHES...GUSTY WINDS ABOVE 40 MPH...
AND POSSIBLY SOME HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY:

ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEK...BECOMING SCATTERED INTO THE WEEKEND.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED.

FOR MORE INFORMATION...CHECK OUR WEBSITE AT
HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TBW (LOWER CASE)

FLZ052-080000-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
723 PM EDT TUE OCT 7 2003

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT NORTHERN AND CENTRAL POLK
COUNTY...

A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS...MOVING EAST AND SOUTHEAST AT 10 MPH...WILL
AFFECT POLK CITY...GIBSONIA...LAKELAND...LOUGHMAN...AUBURNDALE...
HAINES CITY...AND WINTER HAVEN THROUGH 800 PM EDT. GUSTY WINDS UP TO
40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE. EXCESSIVE CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS
EXPECTED IF OUTSIDE...CROUCH DOWN IN A LOW SPOT...AWAY FROM TALL
OBJECTS. IF INDOORS...REFRAIN FROM USING ELECTRICAL APPLIANCES.
RAINFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR WILL OCCUR. MOTORISTS CAN
EXPECT PONDING OF WATER ON ROADS...AND MINOR FLOODING OF POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS.

MCMICHAEL