Severe Thunderstorm Warning 107, NWS Tampa Bay, FL

WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
134 PM EDT THU SEP 25 2003

.CURRENTLY...LAPS SOUNDING DATA SHOWS AN INCREASINGLY MOIST AND
UNSTABLE AIR MASS (PW >2 AND LI  -9C) ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...AND 88D RETURNS CONFIRM THIS SHOWING
CONVECTION RAPIDLY DEVELOPING. AS THE AFTERNOON CONTINUES EXPECT TO
SEE AREAL COVERAGE OF CONVECTION CONTINUE TO INCREASE AS SEA BREEZE
CIRCULATIONS AND OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES INTERACT. IN ADDITION WITH
RATHER COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT (50H TEMP -9C) SOME STORMS COULD
BECOME STRONG WITH HAIL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS. WITH THIS SAID PLAN
TO ADVERTISE MID RANGE (40%) SCATTERED EVENING POPS ALL ZONES WITH
ADDED WORDING FOR SOME STORMS POSSIBLE STRONG.

AFTER THE EVENING CONVECTION FINALLY WINDS DOWN...EXPECT TO SEE
A GOOD DEAL OF DEBRIS CLOUDS WITH ADDITIONAL HIGH CLOUDS COMING IN
OFF THE GULF FROM THE MCS FEATURE OVER THE CENTRAL GULF...SO WILL
WORD FOR CONSIDERABLE HIGH CLOUDS MOST ZONES.

.SHORT TERM(FRI-SAT)...A RATHER COMPLICATED FORECAST SHAPING UP FOR
THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS AN UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE APPROACHES FROM THE NW
AND INVERTED TYPE SURFACE TROUGH OR TROPICAL WAVE MEANDERS WEST-
NORTHWEST OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN AND SERN GULF. MODELS THIS
AFTERNOON CONTINUE TO BE IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH MOST FEATURES...
HOWEVER THE ETA IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE IN SHOWING SOME DEVELOPMENT OF
THE TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN/SERN GULF IN 60 HOURS.
GIVEN THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE UPSTREAM UPPER TROUGH AM INCLINED
TO IGNORE THE ETA SOLUTION FOR NOW AND LEAN TOWARD THE GFS. IN ANY
EVENT WITH DEEP MOISTURE (PWS IN THE 1.8-2+ RANGE) CONTINUING TO
ADVECT NORTH FROM THE CARIBBEAN ON LOW LEVEL SE-SLY WIND FLOW AND
SHORT WAVE ENERGY ADDING ADDITIONAL FOCUS FOR SHOWERS/STORMS IN
ADDITION TO THE SEA BREEZE...WILL ADVERTISE LIKELY CATEGORY POPS FOR
ALL ZONES FOR BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER
AND EXPECTED PRECIPITATION MAX TEMPERATURES THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE
BELOW CLIMO LEVELS WITH MID 80S EXPECTED IN MOST LOCATIONS. GUIDANCE
TEMPS ARE SIMILAR...SO WILL USE A BLEND.

.EXTENDED(SUN-WED)...MAIN MOISTURE AXIS PROGGED TO MOVE SOUTH OF
FORECAST AREA AS PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH MOVES OUT TO SOUTHEAST AND RIDGE
BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. STILL THINK ENOUGH MOISTURE LEFT OVER
FOR SCT POPS OVER THE SOUTHERN 2/3RDS OF THE AREA. DRY AIR WILL BE
WELL ESTABLISHED IN MODERATE NORTHEAST FLOW ON MONDAY WITH ONLY REAL
CHANCE OF PRECIP BEING ACROSS SOUTHERN HALF OF AREA...AND THEN ONLY
ISOLATED. GFS KEEPS A SURFACE TROUGH PINNED ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AS THE
STRONG SFC RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD TO THE NORTH. THIS SHOULD ALLOW
FOR PRETTY GOOD LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE...BUT MOISTURE TOO SCARCE TO
SEE ANYTHING ABOVE 20 PERCENT COVERAGE.

TUE-WED A BIT LESS CLEAR AS DEEP MOISTURE AXIS POISED JUST SOUTH OF
THE FORECAST AREA. GFS/MRF DEPICT A PRETTY GOOD BULGE IN THE
MOISTURE/PRECIP FIELDS ALONG THE WEST COAST AS A TROUGH DEVELOPS IN
THE GULF OF MEXICO. JUDGING BY THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE...WILL OPT
TO IGNORE THE INCREASE AT THIS TIME AND WAIT FOR ADDITIONAL RUNS TO
SEE HOW THE SITUATION PANS OUT. HAVE DECREASED WIND SPEEDS QUITE A
BIT FROM MODEL GUIDANCE...BUT IF TROUGH DOES DEVELOP IN GULF AS
DEPICTED WE COULD SEE 20+ KTS IN COASTAL WATERS NEXT WEEK.

.MARINE...SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW 10 KNOTS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH FRIDAY...THEN BECOMES SOUTHWEST ON SATURDAY IN ADVANCE OF THE
SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN PENINSULA LATE IN THE
DAY. AS THE FRONT MOVES SOUTH WINDS WILL SHIFT INTO THE NW AND NORTH.
ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY A NORTHEAST WIND FLOW WILL PREVAIL AS THE FRONT
GET HUNG UP OVER THE SOUTHERN PENINSULA AND STRAITS AND STRONG
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SEWD FROM THE PLAINS TO THE MID ATLANTIC
BRIDGES ACROSS THE FRONT. SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY THE GFS CONTINUES TO
SHOW WINDS/SEAS NEARING SCEC LEVELS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY IN WAKE OF
THE FRONT...HOWEVER SEEING THAT THIS IS BIAS OF THE GFS...WILL KEEP
WIND/SEAS JUST UNDER ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR NOW AND WILL ADVERTISE
WINDS 15 KNOTS.

.FIRE WEATHER...NO CONCERNS.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BKV 072/086 073/085 4547
TPA 075/086 075/085 4647
SRQ 074/085 074/085 4647
GIF 073/086 074/085 4647
FMY 073/086 074/086 4647

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

MCMICHAEL/JILLSON

FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-251500-

WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
545 AM EDT THU SEP 25 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY:

...A FEW STRONG STORMS FROM TAMPA BAY THROUGH FORT MYERS THIS
AFTERNOON...

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR THROUGH NOON...GENERALLY FROM
SARASOTA THROUGH FORT MYERS WEST INTO THE NEARSHORE WATERS.  THESE
STORMS WILL CONTAIN OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING AND A BRIEF DOWNPOUR.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE SCATTERED AFTERNOON MAINLY SOUTH OF A
PINELLAS TO POLK COUNTY LINE.  BETWEEN 3 AND 6 PM...STORMS WILL
BECOME NUMEROUS MAINLY SOUTH OF SARASOTA WHERE THE SEA BREEZE
COLLISIONS ACT ON A MOIST ATMOSPHERE.  ONLY SCATTERED STORMS ARE
EXPECTED NORTH OF SARASOTA.

IN ALL AREAS...STRONGER STORMS WILL CONTAIN FREQUENT CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING...TORRENTIAL RAINS REDUCING VISIBILITY BELOW 1
MILE...AND WIND GUSTS OF 35 MPH OR GREATER.  THE BEST COVERAGE OF
HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHWEST FLORIDA WHERE CLUSTERS OF
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP.

SCATTERED PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE AFTER SUNSET...BUT IS
EXPECTED TO END BEFORE MIDNIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY:

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED BOTH
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS TROPICAL MOISTURE INCREASES OVER THE
PENINSULA.  PRIMARY THREATS WILL CONTINUE TO BE LIGHTNING...GUSTY
WINDS...AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.  AN ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE
RULED OUT...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST WHERE PREVAILING SOUTHEAST
FLOW WILL COLLIDE WITH A WEST GULF SEA BREEZE.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL FADE TO SOUTHWEST FLORIDA BY SUNDAY AS
A DRIER AIR MASS BEGINS TO PUSH SOUTH FROM THE PANHANDLE.  HAZARDOUS
WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...

AREAL SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED TODAY.  HOWEVER...SPOTTERS
FROM THE TAMPA BAY AREA SOUTH MAY WANT TO SELF ACTIVATE SHOULD
INDIVIDUAL STRONGER CELLS FORM.

FOR MORE INFORMATION...CHECK OUR WEBSITE AT
HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TBW (LOWER CASE)

BSG

FLZ049>052-251800-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
134 PM EDT THU SEP 25 2003

...AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE LIGHTNING... GUSTY WINDS AND
SMALL HAIL...

AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING OVER HILLSBOROUGH...
PINELLAS... PASCO AND POLK COUNTIES. AT 140 PM THE STRONGEST
THUNDERSTORMS WERE JUST SOUTHEAST OF NEW PORT RICHEY EXTENDING
SOUTH OVER NORTHWESTERN HILLSBOROUGH. ANOTHER STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS
OVER TAMPA BAY JUST EAST OF MACDILL AFB. THESE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
MOVING TOWARDS THE NORTH AT 10 MPH AND WILL PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS...
SMALL HAIL... AND DEADLY LIGHTNING.

BSG

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