Severe Thunderstorm Warning 102, NWS Tampa Bay, FL

WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
254 PM EDT FRI AUG 22 2003

.CURRENTLY...ANOTHER AFTERNOON OF PARTLY/MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH
CONVECTION FIRING OFF ACROSS BOTH THE NORTH AND SOUTH ENDS OF
THE CWFA AT THE MOMENT.

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-SUN)...HAVE CONTINUED TO FAVOR THE ETA AS
MODEL OF CHOICE...BASED ON PAST FEW DAYS PERFORMANCE. RIDGE
CONTINUES EAST OF THE STATE AS A WEAK LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER
THE NORTHEAST GULF SLIDES NORTH AND THEN ACROSS THE GULF COAST
AND NORTH FL/SOUTH GA THROUGH LATE SAT. THE SURFACE RIDGE STARTS
TO BUILD BACK ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA FOR SUNDAY WITH SOME SLIGHTLY
DRIER AIR WORKING IN. WILL CONTINUE LIKELY POPS FOR SAT AND THEN TRIM
BACK TO SCATTERED SUN. LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPS WITH BOTH HIGHS AND
LOWS NEAR NORMAL.

.EXTENDED (MON-FRI)...
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE IS THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THE EXTENDED
FORECAST.  GFS HAS THE SYSTEM OPENING UP AS A WAVE IN THE
LATEST 5 DAY FORECAST.  EXTENDED MODELS HAVE IT STICKING AROUND
IN THE NORTHEAST GULF THROUGH THE 10 DAY PERIOD.  HAVE CHOSEN A BLEND
OF THE NHCS SHORTER-TERM AND THE LONG-TERM MODELS...THUS HAVE
STRONGER NORTHEASTERLY WINDS TUESDAY AFTERNOON, EASTERLY WINDS
WEDNESDAY, AND SOUTHEASTERLY FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.  WENT WITH
SIMILAR RAIN CHANCES TO CURRENT FORECAST BECAUSE OF THE PERSISTENCE
OF THE TROPICAL MOISTURE IN THE REGION.  NUDGED THE HIGH TEMPS DOWN A
COUPLE OF DEGREES IN CASE WE HAVE EXTRA CLOUDINESS TO LOWER
INSOLATION, BUT FORECAST HIGHS ARE STILL NEAR CLIMO.

.MARINE...NO HIGHLIGHTS WITH A FAIRLY LIGHT WIND PATTERN INTO THE
WEEKEND. BUT...AS NOTED ABOVE...WINDS DO RESPOND TO THE TROPICAL
SYSTEM AND INCREASE LATE IN THE MARINE PERIOD.

THANKS FOR THE COORD MIA.

PRELIMINARY #S
TPA 075/089 074/090 3625
FMY 074/089 074/091 3625
GIF 073/091 073/092 3625
SRQ 077/088 077/088 3625
BKV 071/090 072/091 3625

.TBW...NONE.

RKR/RJS

FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-221400-

WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
600 AM EDT FRI AUG 22 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY:

DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA.  MINIMAL
SURFACE HEATING WILL LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA THIS
AFTERNOON.  THE MAIN THREAT TODAY WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN DUE
TO THE DEEP TROPICAL AIRMASS OVER THE AREA.  THE GROUND IS SATURATED
DUE TO RECENT HEAVY RAINS...WHICH WILL LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLOODING OF
STREETS AND FLOOD PRONE AREAS THIS AFTERNOON. WIND GUSTS OF UP TO 40
MPH IS ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY:

THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY AGAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON...WITH DAILY COVERAGE
DECREASING TO SCATTERED ON SUNDAY AS A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA.  LOCALIZED FLOODING
WILL REMAIN A THREAT THROUGH THE WEEK.  WITH WEAKENING FLOW DUE TO
PROXIMITY OF THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS...THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME SLOW
MOVING WHICH WILL INCREASE THREAT OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.  WILL
HAVE TO MONITOR PROGRESS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION 9.  SEE THE LATEST
STATEMENTS FROM THE TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER.

SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED TODAY...