Severe Thunderstorm Warning 101, NWS Tampa Bay, FL

WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
200 PM EDT SAT AUG 16 2003

CURRENTLY...ALTHOUGH W/V IMAGERY INDICATES DRY AIR ALOFT...ABUNDANT
MOISTURE REMAINS BELOW 500 MB.  THIS HAS ALLOWED SCATTERED SHOWERS
TO DEVELOP ALONG THE EAST COAST SEABREEZE CURRENTLY OVER THE INTERIOR
PENINSULA.  SHOWER ACTIVITY IS SPREADING SLOWLY WEST. EXPECT SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO INCREASE LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING
OVER THE COASTAL COUNTIES OF WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AS THE EAST COAST
SEABREEZE COLLIDES WITH THE WEST COAST SEABREEZE.

SHORT TERM (SUN-MON)...TROUGH DIGGING OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. WILL
SHIFT L/L FLOW TO SOUTHWEST ON SUNDAY.  THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR
INCREASING LATE NIGHT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER THE
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO WHICH WILL SPREAD LOCALLY ONSHORE DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS.  THIS PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ON MONDAY.

EXTENDED (TUE-SAT)...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SETUP OVER EASTERN U.S.
THROUGH THURSDAY AND THEN LIFT OUT ALLOWING RIDGE TO BUILD OVER THE
REGION FOR LATE NEXT WEEK.  THIS WILL SETUP A MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO THE FORECAST AREA WITH MAINLY MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON
CONVECTION NEAR THE COAST SHIFTING INLAND DURING THE DAY.  FOR FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY WINDS WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY WITH MAINLY LATE
MORNING THROUGH EVENING CONVECTION EACH DAY.  DAYTIME HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THURSDAY
WITH MORNING LOWS SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL...AND WILL LIKELY SEE LOWS
ONLY DROPPING TO AROUND 80 NEAR THE COAST.  TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN
TO NEAR NORMAL LATE IN THE WEEK.

MARINE...WINDS WILL REMAIN LESS THAN 15 KNOTS WITH SEAS 3 FEET OR
LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD.  MAIN HAZARD WILL BE SCATTERED LATE NIGHT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

PRELIMINARY #S
TPA 075/089 078/089 3545
FMY 075/090 076/090 3525
GIF 073/090 075/090 2525
SRQ 075/087 076/087 3545
BKV 071/090 072/089 3424

.TBW...NONE.

EO/PC

FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-161400-

WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
600 AM EDT SAT AUG 16 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY:

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVENING ALONG A WEST COAST SEA BREEZE. DRIER AIR IN THE MID LEVELS
OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL LIMIT THE COVERAGE AND DELAY THE ONSET.
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD INITIALLY DEVELOP OVER SOUTHWEST FLORIDA WHERE
THERE IS MORE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...THEN DEVELOP NORTHWARD ALONG
THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY. STEERING FLOW WILL BE WEAK TODAY...WITH
LITTLE OVERALL MOVEMENT TO THE STORMS. THE MAIN THREAT TODAY WILL
BE FOR ISOLATED STRONG STORMS WITH WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH AND SMALL
HAIL. FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING WILL ALSO OCCUR WITH MOST
STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY:

THE SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD ON SUNDAY...
SHIFTING THE FOCUS FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FURTHER
INLAND. COVERAGE SHOULD BE LIMITED A BIT ON SUNDAY WITH DRIER AIR IN
PLACE AND THEN BACK TO NORMAL THROUGH FRIDAY AS MOISTURE RETURNS IN
DEEPER SOUTHWEST FLOW.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED TODAY...

FLZ065-162045-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
409 PM EDT SAT AUG 16 2003

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS HEADED FOR WESTERN LEE COUNTY AND THE
ISLANDS...
A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS...MOVING WEST AT 10 MPH...WILL AFFECT
FORT MYERS...CAPE CORAL AND SANIBEL...UNTIL 445 PM EDT. GUSTY WINDS
UP TO 40 MPH WILL OCCUR. RAINFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR
WILL OCCUR. MOTORISTS CAN EXPECT PONDING OF WATER ON ROADS...AND
MINOR FLOODING OF POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING IS EXPECTED. IF CAUGHT OUTSIDE...CROUCH DOWN IN A LOW
SPOT...AWAY FROM TALL OBJECTS.
&&
RAINFALL OF NEARLY 1 1/2 INCHES HAS ALREADY FALLEN AT PAGE FIELD
SINCE 315 PM...AND WINDS GUSTED TO 32 MPH AT AROUND 330 PM.

GOLDSMITH

FLZ055-060-162200-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
525 PM EDT SAT AUG 16 2003

...EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING AND BLINDING RAINS ALONG THE RURAL SARASOTA
AND MANATEE COUNTY LINE...
A THUNDERSTORM...MOVING NORTHWEST AT 10 MPH...WILL AFFECT RURAL
EASTERN SARASOTA COUNTY AND RURAL SOUTHEASTERN MANATEE
COUNTY...UNTIL 600 PM EDT. THIS WILL AFFECT STATE ROAD 72...AND MAY
CAUSE A BRIEF PERIOD OF HIGH STANDING WATER.  EXCESSIVE CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING IS EXPECTED IF OUTSIDE...CROUCH DOWN IN A LOW
SPOT...AWAY FROM TALL OBJECTS. IF INDOORS...REFRAIN FROM USING
ELECTRICAL APPLIANCES. HAIL UP TO ONE HALF INCH IN DIAMETER IS
EXPECTED. GUSTY WINDS 40 TO 50 MPH MAY CAUSE LOOSE OBJECTS TO BLOW
AROUND. MINOR DAMAGE TO TREE LIMBS AND WIRES IS POSSIBLE.

GOLDSMITH

FLZ051-055-162215-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
535 PM EDT SAT AUG 16 2003

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS HEADED FOR LOWER TAMPA BAY AND BRADENTON
METRO AREAS...
A DEVELOPING LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...MOVING WEST AT 10
MPH...WILL AFFECT RUSKIN...ELLENTON...PALMETTO...AND PERHAPS
BRADENTON...UNTIL 615 PM EDT. GUSTY WINDS UP TO 40 MPH WILL OCCUR.
FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS EXPECTED. IF CAUGHT
OUTSIDE...CROUCH DOWN IN A LOW SPOT...AWAY FROM TALL OBJECTS. THIS
STORM MAY PRODUCE PEA SIZE HAIL. TORRENTIAL RAINS WILL REDUCE
VISIBILITY TO NEAR ZERO AT TIMES. MOTORISTS MAY WANT TO DELAY TRAVEL.
&&
RESIDENTS AND MARINERS SHOULD STAY TUNED FOR POSSIBLE WEATHER
WARNINGS BEFORE 6 PM.

GOLDSMITH

FLZ051-055-060-162300-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
609 PM EDT SAT AUG 16 2003

...EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING AND TORRENTIAL RAINS RIPPING INTO SARASOTA
AND BRADENTON METRO AREAS...
A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS...MOVING WEST AT 15 MPH...WILL AFFECT
PALMETTO...BRADENTON AND SARASOTA...UNTIL 700 PM EDT. EXCESSIVE
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS EXPECTED IF OUTSIDE...CROUCH DOWN IN A
LOW SPOT...AWAY FROM TALL OBJECTS. IF INDOORS...REFRAIN FROM USING
ELECTRICAL APPLIANCES. RAINFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR WILL
OCCUR. MOTORISTS CAN EXPECT PONDING OF WATER ON ROADS...AND MINOR
FLOODING OF POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.  GUSTY WINDS 40 TO 50 MPH MAY CAUSE
LOOSE OBJECTS TO BLOW AROUND. MINOR DAMAGE TO TREE LIMBS AND WIRES
IS POSSIBLE.

GOLDSMITH

FLZ050-162315-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
630 PM EDT SAT AUG 16 2003

...LINE OF STRONG STORMS WITH TORRENTIAL RAINS AND FREQUENT
LIGHTNING HEADED INTO PINELLAS COUNTY...

A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS...MOVING WEST AT 10 MPH...WILL AFFECT SAINT
PETERSBURG...PINELLAS PARK...LARGO...SEMINOLE...AND
CLEARWATER...BETWEEN 645 AND 715 PM EDT. RAINFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2
INCHES PER HOUR WILL OCCUR. MOTORISTS CAN EXPECT PONDING OF WATER ON
ROADS...AND MINOR FLOODING OF POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.GUSTY WINDS UP TO
40 MPH WILL OCCUR. FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS EXPECTED.
IF CAUGHT OUTSIDE...CROUCH DOWN IN A LOW SPOT...AWAY FROM TALL
OBJECTS.

GOLDSMITH

FLZ051-162330-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
641 PM EDT SAT AUG 16 2003

...INTENSE THUNDERSTORMS WITH EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING AND BLINDING RAIN
SLAMMING TAMPA AND THE NORTH SUBURBS...
...URBAN FLOOD ADVISORY CONTINUES UNTIL 715 PM...

THUNDERSTORMS...DEVELOPING BETWEEN TAMPA AND TEMPLE TERRACE AND
MOVING WEST AT 10 MPH...WILL AFFECT TAMPA INTERNATIONAL
AIRPORT...SOUTH TAMPA...MACDILL AIR FORCE BASE AND TOWN N COUNTRY...
UNTIL 730 PM EDT. GUSTY WINDS 40 TO 50 MPH MAY CAUSE LOOSE OBJECTS
TO BLOW AROUND. MINOR DAMAGE TO TREE LIMBS AND WIRES IS POSSIBLE.

EXCESSIVE CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS EXPECTED IF OUTSIDE...CROUCH
DOWN IN A LOW SPOT...AWAY FROM TALL OBJECTS. IF INDOORS...REFRAIN
FROM USING ELECTRICAL APPLIANCES. RAINFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES
PER HOUR WILL OCCUR. MOTORISTS CAN EXPECT PONDING OF WATER ON
ROADS...AND MINOR FLOODING OF POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. HAIL UP TO ONE
HALF INCH IN DIAMETER IS EXPECTED.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR LOCAL MEDIA FOR POSSIBLE
WARNINGS EARLY THIS EVENING.

GOLDSMITH