Alert archive / Florida / Flash Flood Warnings in 2003

Flash Flood Warning 16, NWS Tampa Bay, FL

September 13, 2003Lee County, Florida

NWS Tampa Bay, FL issued this flash flood warning at Sep 13, 2003, 6:03 PM EDT for Lee County, Florida. It was in force for 117 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Sep 13, 2003, 6:03 PM EDT (22:03 UTC)
Expired: Sep 13, 2003, 8:00 PM EDT
In force: 117 min
Issued by: NWS Tampa Bay, FL
Area: Counties, with a storm outline in the text

County Lee County, FL

The radar

The Tampa radar (KTBW), 127 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 22:02 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

Did it verify

Not verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow found no qualifying storm report inside this flash flood warning while it was in force. That is not proof nothing happened: reports are thin where few people live.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The nearest sounding before it

Tampa Bay, FL (KTBW), launched 12:00Z, 10.1 hours before the alert went out and 127 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 299 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -78 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 991 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 15 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 5 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 50 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

000 
WGUS52 KTBW 132204
FFWTBW
FLC071-140000-

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
603 PM EDT SAT SEP 13 2003

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN RUSKIN HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
  CENTRAL LEE COUNTY IN FLORIDA.

  FLOODING WILL AFFECT THE FOLLOWING CITIES.
  FORT MYERS.

* UNTIL 800 PM EDT

* AT 558 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED   
  THAT THERE HAS BEEN BETWEEN 2 AND 4 INCHES OF RAINFALL ACROSS MUCH 
  OF CAPE CORAL AND NORTHERN FORT MYERS. UP TO ONE INCH OF           
  ADDITIONAL RAINFALL MAY STILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH 8 PM. 

AT 555 PM EDT...EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS ALSO REPORTED FLOODING
ALONG MANY STREETS AND ROADS IN THE VICINITY OF THE HANCOCK BRIDGE 
PARKWAY...BETWEEN 24 AVENUE NORTHEAST...TO SANTA BARBARA BLVD. 

MOTORISTS ARE URGED TO STAY OFF THE ROADS AROUND MUCH OF DOWNTOWN 
CAPE CORAL...ESPECIALLY IN THE VICINITY OF HANCOCK BRIDGE PARKWAY.

NUMEROUS ROADS MAY BE CLOSED...AND HOMES...ESPECIALLY IN LOW LYING 
AREAS...COULD EXPERIENCE SOME MINOR FLOODING. 

DONT BECOME A STATISTIC. TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN

&&

LAT...LON 2670 8184 2660 8184 2656 8200 2670 8203

$$

33

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this flash flood warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Tampa Bay, FL wrote its last area forecast discussion before this flash flood warning went out at Sep 13, 1:27 PM EDT, 4 hours 36 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Sep 13, 1:27 PM EDT, 4 hours 36 minutes before

WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
127 PM EDT SAT SEP 13 2003

TO END THE WEEKEND AND BEGIN THE WORKWEEK...A MORE TYPICAL MID
SEPTEMBER REGIME WILL PREVAIL WITH SCT MAINLY AFTN/EVE PCPN AND
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS.  THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WILL BE
DETERMINED BY ISABELS FUTURE...WHICH FOR NOW SHOULD PLACE THE
SUNCOAST WELL IN THE SUBSIDENCE ZONE WITH REDUCED COVERAGE/CHANCES
OF PCPN.  WELL FINE TUNE AS WE GET CLOSER.

MODELS IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT THIS PACKAGE...WITH SUBTLE
DIFFERENCES IN MOISTURE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AFFECTING AFTN/EVE
PCPN FORECASTS.  PREFER A BLEND OF THE ETA/GFS.

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT - MON):
REMNANT SUBSIDENCE AROUND OLD CUTOFF (WHICH WAS ONCE HENRI) IN
THE CAROLINAS WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
EASTWARD MOVING AND WEAKENING TROUGH HEADING INTO ARKANSAS THIS EVE
WILL LEAVE A 500 MB SHEAR AXIS BEHIND...WHICH WILL APPROACH THE
PENINSULA ON MON. THE COMBINATION OF THESE SYSTEMS WITH WEAK FLOW
AND INCREASING MEAN LAYER MOISTURE WILL PROVIDE SCATTERED AFTN/EVE
SHOWERS AND A FEW TSTMS EACH DAY.  THE BETTER CHANCE LOOKS TO BE
SUNDAY...AS N/NE FLOW BEGINS TO DEVELOP MON REDUCING DEEP LAYERED
MOISTURE A TAD.  CURRENT FCSTS INDICATE THIS AND HAVE CHANGED THEM
LITTLE.

EXTENDED (MON NIGHT - SAT):
WILL CONTINUE THE CURRENT TREND OF PARTLY CLOUDY WITH LOW POPS AND
WINDS BACKING INTO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST. THE CWFA IS EXPECTED TO
BE UNDER SUBSIDENCE ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF ISABEL AS SHE MOVES ACROSS
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...WITH LOWER MOISTURE AND BELOW NORMAL CHANCES
OF PRECIPITATION. TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN SEASONABLE.

MARINE:  LIGHT E FLOW WILL BECOME MORE NE BY MON AND PERHAPS
INCREASE JUST A SMIDGE.  FLOW WILL BECOME MORE NORTHERLY LATER IN
THE WEEK OWING TO ISABELS APPROACH TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND AN
EXPECTED INCREASE IN SIZE...BUT EXPECT SPEEDS TO REMAIN BELOW ANY
HIGHLIGHT CRITERIA.

FIRE WX:  LIGHT WINDS AND SEASONABLE RH VALUES MEAN NO PROBLEMS.

PRELIM NUMBERS:
TPA 075/089 074/090 2433
FMY 074/090 073/091 2433
GIF 074/090 073/091 2423
SRQ 074/088 073/090 2433
BKV 068/090 069/090 2423

.TBW...NONE.

BSG/RKR

Hazardous weather outlook, Sep 13, 6:00 AM EDT, 12 hours 3 minutes before

FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-131500-

WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
600 AM EDT SAT SEP 13 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY:

SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ALONG
SEABREEZE BOUNDARIES. THESE STORMS WILL CONTAIN DANGEROUS LIGHTNING
AND GUSTY WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY:

SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS CONTAINING DANGEROUS LIGHTNING AND
GUSTY WINDS MAY FORM ALONG SEABREEZE BOUNDARIES ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
THEN FOR TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...ISOLATED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS
ARE ANTICIPATED AS DRIER MORE STABLE AIR ENTERS THE REGION FROM THE
WEST SIDE OF HURRICANE ISABEL.

SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED TODAY.

JLC

Nearby

Flash Flood Warnings in Florida, 2003 Every flash flood warning in 2003

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.