Flash Flood Warning 14, NWS Tampa Bay, FL

WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
915 PM EDT FRI SEP 5 2003

CURRENTLY: VISIBLE SATELLITE EARLIER TODAY AND RADAR THIS
EVENING HAS INDICATED THAT TROPICAL STORM HENRI HAD BEEN SINKING
SLOWLY SOUTH.  DEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN SHEERED WELL TO THE SOUTH AND
EAST OF THE CENTER WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO...MAINLY SOUTH OF TARPON SPRINGS.  AREA OF TRAINING CELLS
REMAINS ACROSS LEE COUNTY WITH LOCALIZED FLOODING LIKELY THIS
EVENING.  TRAINING CELLS COULD PRODUCE 3 TO 6 INCHES OF RAIN THROUGH
MIDNIGHT WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS.

TRICKY FORECAST TONIGHT AS IT HINGES ON THE MOVEMENT OF TROPICAL
STORM HENRI. A EAST NORTHEAST TO NORTHEAST MOTION IS EXPECTED LATER
TONIGHT. BUT UNTIL A DEFINITE TURN TAKES PLACE...MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW
OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL REMAIN OVER SOUTHWEST FLORIDA.  ALTHOUGH
SIGNIFICANT SHEER WILL CONTINUE OVER THE STORM SYSTEM TONIGHT...
WOULD EXPECT CONVECTION TO FLARE UP OVER THE COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF
BRADENTON DUE TO INCREASING L/L CONVERGENCE.  ADDITIONAL TRAINING
OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COULD REDEVELOP IN THIS
REGION OVERNIGHT WITH AN ADDITIONAL 3 TO 6 INCHES OF RAIN POSSIBLE...
WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS.  IN GENERAL THOUGH...RAINFALL WILL BE AN
INCH OR LESS ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE EXCEPTION OF LEE COUNTY.

WILL LOWER POPS A BIT OVER THE INTERIOR AND NORTH DUE TO A DECREASE
IN AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWER ACTIVITY...HOWEVER COULD SEE
REDEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER ALL OF WEST
CENTRAL FLORIDA OVERNIGHT.

.TBW...TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM ENGLEWOOD TO THE SUWANNEE RIVER.
    ...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON ALL ZONES.
    ...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD.

OGLESBY

FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-051500-

WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL FL
600 AM EDT FRI SEP 5 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY:

...A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE WESTERN FLORIDA PENINSULA
THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON...
...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT NORTH OF ENGLEWOOD...

TROPICAL STORM HENRI WAS LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO
APPROXIMATELY 115 MILES WEST OF SAINT PETERSBURG.  DEEP TROPICAL
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH HENRI WILL PRODUCE WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL
TODAY...WITH 5 TO 8 INCHES OF RAIN POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF WEST
CENTRAL FLORIDA DURING THE NEXT 2 DAYS...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
POSSIBLE JUST TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF WHERE THE STORM MAKES
LANDFALL.  SIGNIFICANT FLOODING MAY DEVELOP DUE TO THE EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY ALONG RIVERS AND STREAMS WHICH ARE ALREADY NEAR
OR ABOVE FLOOD STAGE.  WINDS WILL INCREASE GRADUALLY INCREASE
TODAY...AND WILL APPROACH TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH ALONG THE COAST
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WILL
LIKELY BE CONFINED TO COASTAL AREAS JUST SOUTH AND EAST OF WHERE THE
CENTER MAKES LANDFALL...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO BE BETWEEN BAYPORT AND
CEDAR KEY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY:

TROPICAL STORM HENRI IS EXPECTED TO BE MOVING AWAY FROM THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA.  HOWEVER DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER
WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA IN THE WAKE OF HENRI.  LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS
POSSIBLE WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY. IF YOU
LIVE IN AN AREA THAT IS NEAR A RIVER OR STREAM OR IS PRONE TO
FLOODING YOU WILL WANT TO CLOSELY MONITOR WEATHER FORECASTS AND
STATEMENTS THIS WEEKEND.

SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
EACH AFTERNOON THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.

OGLESBY