Flash Flood Warning 11, NWS Tampa Bay, FL

000 
WGUS72 KTBW 092122
FFSTBW
FLC081-092200-

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
525 PM EDT SAT AUG 9 2003

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR WESTERN MANATEE COUNTY...
INCLUDING PALMETTO...BRADENTON...

...UNTIL 600 PM EDT.

AT 525 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR DETECTED THE 
HEAVY RAIN HAD MOVED SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...IT WILL 
TAKE SOME TIME FOR THE WATER ON THE ROADS TO DRAIN. DO NOT DRIVE 
THROUGH FLOODED ROADS

DO NOT CROSS FLOODED ROADWAYS OR STREAMS. IF NEARING A FLOOD 
AREA...TURN AROUND AND DRIVE TO HIGHER TERRAIN.

DONT BECOME A STATISTIC. TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN

&&

LAT...LON 2764 8233 2743 8232 2740 8263 2757 8271

$$

72

WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
205 PM EDT SAT AUG 9 2003

CURRENTLY...NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NOW COVER MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA AND EXTEND WAY OUT OVER THE GULF WATERS. STRONGEST
ACTIVITY HAS NOW SLID SOUTHWARD A BIT...ACROSS MANATEE AND SARASOTA
COUNTIES. THUNDERSTORMS OVER POLK COUNTY ARE MOVING FAIRLY RAPIDLY
NORTHEASTWARD INTO OSCEOLA COUNTY.

--SHORT TERM (SUN-MON)--
UPPER TROF OVER THE SE U.S. THROUGH SUNDAY LIFTS A BIT ON MONDAY
ALLOWING 500MB HEIGHTS TO RISE SOME ACROSS THE FA. HOPEFULLY
THIS WILL BE ENOUGH TO CUT OFF THE LONG FLOW OF TROPICAL MOISTURE
THAT HAS PERSISTED FOR THE LAST 3 DAYS. GFS HAS ANOTHER VORT LOBE
MOVING CROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA FOR SUNDAY...SO EXPECT MORE OF THE
SAME TYPE OF TRAINING SHOWERS AND STORMS FROM THE GULF. POPS WILL
BE AT LEAST 50...WITH SOME 60 POPS INLAND WHERE WE GET A SMALL
BOOST FROM HEATING. ETA SEEMS TO DO A BETTER JOB WITH SURFACE
WINDS...ALLOWING RIDGE TO BUILD NORTHWARD TOWARDS CENTRAL FLORIDA ON
MONDAY WITH FAIRLY LIGHT SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW. PLENTY OF MOISTURE WILL
REMAIN...SO STILL LOOKING AT 50 POPS MOST AREAS ON MONDAY.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL SUNDAY WITH EXTENSIVE CLOUD
COVER AND GOOD SHOWER COVERAGE...THEN PERHAPS CLOSER TO NORMAL ON
MONDAY. LOWS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL...ESPECIALLY ALONG COASTAL AREAS
SUNDAY MORNING.

--EXTENDED (TUE-SAT)--
GFS SOLUTION SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS RUN WITH DEPICTING UPPER/SFC RIDGING
REBUILDING IN OVER THE FA FROM THE SOUTHEAST ON TUESDAY. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR A TRANSITION BACK TO A MORE NORMAL SUMMERTIME REGIME
UNDER A DEVELOPING E-SELY WIND FLOW WHICH WILL FAVOR AFTERNOON AND
EVENING CONVECTION ALONG SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES. BY LATER WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY LATEST GFS DEPICTS A TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHING FROM
EAST. GFS DEPICT PWS LOWERING A BIT ALONG WITH INCREASE SUBSIDENCE
ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THIS FEATURE. THIS MAY TEND TO DECREASE RAIN
CHANCES SOME...BUT SEEING THIS IS SO FAR OUT AT THE PRESENT TIME WILL
LEAVE POPS IN THE SCATTERED RANGE AND WAIT AND SEE HOW THINGS EVOLVE.
BEYOND THIS THE MRF DEPICTS A MORE NORMAL SELY FLOW REGIME WITH
CONVECTION EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS
WITH NEAR SEASONAL TEMPERATURES.

--MARINE--
OUTSIDE OF SHOWERS...WINDS HAVE COME DOWN TO MOSTLY 10 KTS IN
THE COASTAL WATERS...BUT STILL SOME GUSTS UP NEAR 15 KTS. SEAS ARE
MOSTLY 2 FT NOW. DONT EXPECT ANY HIGHLIGHTS...BUT SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH A BIT LESS
COVERAGE EXPECTED ON MONDAY.

PRELIMINARY #S
TPA 077/087 076/089 4525
FMY 076/089 075/090 4525
GIF 074/088 073/091 3625
SRQ 076/087 075/088 4525
BKV 073/087 072/090 3525

.TBW...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY FOR LEVY...CITRUS...SUMTER...
       HERNANDO...PASCO...HILLSBOROUGH...PINELLAS...MANATEE...
       POLK...SARASOTA...HARDEE...DESOTO...HIGHLANDS...LEE AND
       CHARLOTTE COUNTIES.

JILLSON/MCMICHAEL

FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-091400-

WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL FL
515 AM EDT SAT AUG 9 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT:

...A FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES TODAY FOR ALL OF WEST CENTRAL AND
   SOUTHWEST FLORIDA...

THE CONTINUED COMBINATION OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY AND DEEP TROPICAL
MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
AGAIN TODAY.  MANY AREAS ALONG THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA RECEIVED
2 TO 3 INCHES OF RAINFALL ON FRIDAY...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OF
4 TO 6 INCHES. AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE
AGAIN TODAY...WITH LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 4 INCHES. THIS
WILL CONTINUE TO AGGRAVATE ANY ONGOING FLOODING ALONG AREA RIVERS...
STREAMS AND LOW LYING AREAS NORTH OF THE TAMPA BAY REGION...AND
COULD CAUSE ADDITIONAL RIVERS AND STREAMS TO APPROACH OR GO ABOVE
BANK-FULL.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE EASTERN GULF WATERS
AND THE COASTAL COUNTIES THIS MORNING...WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS BY
THIS AFTERNOON. INDIVIDUAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
MOVE TOWARD THE EAST AND NORTHEAST AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

ALTHOUGH THE MAIN THREAT TODAY WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...
REMEMBER ALL THUNDERSTORMS CAN PRODUCE DEADLY CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY:

...THE THREAT FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE FOR SUNDAY...

CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS
MAINLY THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION FOR SUNDAY.
BY MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN BUILDING BACK ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN AREA...THEN FARTHER NORTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL AREA
BY LATER TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO RETURN
TO THE MORE TYPICAL AFTERNOON AND EVENING TIMING TUESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED TODAY AND SUNDAY...
PRIMARILY FOR RAINFALL AND LOCAL OVERLAND OR RIVER FLOOD REPORTS.

RFM

FLZ050-091415-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
935 AM EDT SAT AUG 9 2003

A BROKEN BAND OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT TARPON
SPRINGS...PALM HARBOR...DUNEDIN AND INDIAN ROCKS BEACH...UNTIL 1015
AM EDT. OCCASIONAL CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS EXPECTED. IF CAUGHT
OUTSIDE...CROUCH DOWN IN A LOW SPOT...AWAY FROM TALL OBJECTS. AT 930
AM EDT...PINELLAS COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT REPORTED A FUNNEL CLOUD
OVER TARPON SPRINGS. OTHER FUNNEL CLOUDS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVE ONSHORE FROM THE GULF THE
REMAINDER OF THE MORNING. IF THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES YOUR
LOCATION...MOVE INDOORS IMMEDIATELY.

MCMICHAEL

FLZ050-051-055-060-061-091615-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
1131 AM EDT SAT AUG 9 2003

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MOVING THROUGH PINELLAS AND HILLSBOROUGH
COUNTY...
A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH...WILL AFFECT
PINELLAS PARK AND BRANDON...UNTIL 1215 PM EDT. GUSTY WINDS UP TO 40
MPH WILL OCCUR. FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS EXPECTED. IF
CAUGHT OUTSIDE...CROUCH DOWN IN A LOW SPOT...AWAY FROM TALL OBJECTS.
TORRENTIAL RAINS WILL CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADS...AND MINOR
FLOODING OF POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

JILLSON

FLZ051-052-055-056-060-091645-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
1202 PM EDT SAT AUG 9 2003

A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH WILL
AFFECT RUSKIN...APOLLO BEACH...SUN CITY CENTER...WIMAUMA...GIBSTON...
BRANDON...DUETTE...FORT LONESOME...MYAKKA HEADY...AND LITHIA UNTIL
1245 PM EDT. GUSTY WINDS UP TO 40 MPH WILL OCCUR. EXCESSIVE CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING IS EXPECTED IF OUTSIDE...CROUCH DOWN IN A LOW
SPOT...AWAY FROM TALL OBJECTS. IF INDOORS...REFRAIN FROM USING
ELECTRICAL APPLIANCES. TORRENTIAL RAINS WILL CAUSE PONDING OF WATER
ON ROADS...AND MINOR FLOODING OF POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

MCMICHAEL