Severe Thunderstorm Warning 82, NWS Tallahassee, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECT FORMAT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
220 PM EDT SUN AUG 3 2003

VISUAL SATELLITE HAS GOOD CLOUD STREETS OVER CWA WITH SW FLOW. WEAK
SEA BREEZE DRIFTING INLAND & WILL CONTRIBUTE TO CONVECTION
INITIATION ALONG WITH OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES & SHORTWAVE ENERGY. 12Z TLH
SOUNDING HAD A PRECIP WATER VALUE OF 1.94 INCH...LI OF -5.9...CAPE
OF 3122 J/KG...& SW-W FLOW SURFACE TO 20K FT. IR SATELLITE IMAGERY
HAS SHORTWAVE ROTATING IN THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH OVER CENTRAL
AL & DEVELOPING CONVECTION OVER N GA TO AL. THIS FEATURE WILL
CONTINUE E THEN NE...BUT WILL SPAWN CONVECTION BACK TO FL PANHANDLE
THIS AFTERNOON TO EVENING. UP STREAM IN THE NW FLOW MORE SHORTWAVE
ENERGY SEEN & THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY. SURFACE ANALYSIS
HAS A WEAK TROUGH IN A SIMILAR LOCATION WITH THETA-E GRADIENT HIGHER
SOUTH...A BIT LESS TO NORTH. MIDDLE LEVEL STEERING FLOW WILL TAKE
CONVECTION E-NE THIS AFTERNOON TO EVENING. MESOETA HAS THIS
FEATURE...TAKES IT NE TONIGHT...SETTLES THINGS DOWN OVERNIGHT WITH
PATCHY LOW CLOUDS & FOG OVER PARTS OF CWA. ALTHOUGH THIS
RUN...MODELS NOT DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE SE U.S AS MUCH AS
PREVIOUS RUNS. CONSEQUENTLY...MODEL QPF & POP A BIT LESS THAN
PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED...BUT STILL AROUND 50% EACH DAY TO EVENING.
MIDDLE TO LATE WEEK...MODELS DEEPEN THE UPPER TROUGH MORE TO THE
SOUTH & BRING SHORTWAVE ENERGY CLOSER TO THE CWA. WILL SEE POPS UP A
BIT AS TEMPS SETTLE AROUND 90.

.MARINE...WINDS MAY PICK UP TO THE 10KT RANGE LATE MON/TUES AND A
TAD MORE WESTERLY. NO OTHER HIGHLIGHTS.

.FIRE WX...RH VALUES REMAIN UP. NO CONCERNS

.EXTENDED...NO CHANGES AT THIS TIME. EXTENDED GFS/ETA & MRF DEEPEN
THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EAST LATER IN THE WEEK...WHICH WILL KEEP
AFTERNOON TO EVENING POPS AT LEAST AT 50% MOST OF CWA. TEMPS WILL
REMAIN BELOW NORMAL WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER/MID 70S...WHILE HIGHS
AROUND 90 INLAND AREAS...WHILE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 AT THE COAST.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

TLH 72 89 73 89 / 30 50 30 50
PFN 75 87 76 88 / 30 50 30 50
DHN 72 89 73 89 / 30 50 30 50
ABY 72 89 73 89 / 30 50 30 50
VLD 72 89 73 89 / 30 50 30 50
CTY 72 88 73 89 / 30 50 30 50
NOTE: EVENING POP MAY BE HIGHER THAN TONIGHTS POP

.TLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
FL...NONE.

MCT

GMZ750-755-770-775-ALZ065>069-FLZ007>019-026>029-034-GAZ120>131-
142>148-155>161-041000-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
600 AM EDT SUN AUG 3 2003

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL
GEORGIA...THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AND EASTERN PANHANDLE...AND THE
ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.
NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY...BUT AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST FOR ALL AREAS. SOME STRONG STORMS MAY
DEVELOP AND PRODUCE WIND GUSTS OF 30 MPH... FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING...AND POSSIBLY SOME SMALL HAIL. IN ADDITION...LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL IN EXCESS OF TWO INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE IN ISOLATED
STORMS...WHICH COULD CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND OTHER
POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY...AND SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL
NOT BE REQUIRED.

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE IN TALLAHASSEE VIA OUR WEB SITE AT WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TLH/ OR
LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...LOCAL TELEVISION OR RADIO STATIONS.

10-BOLINSKI

FLZ011-013-032115-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
437 PM EDT SUN AUG 3 2003

AT 337 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER NORTHERN CALHOUN AND SOUTHERN JACKSON
COUNTIES...MOVING EAST-NORTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH...PEA SIZED
HAIL...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...AND TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS
WHICH MAY CAUSE LOCALIZED FLOODING OF STREETS AND LOW LYING AREAS.

17-GOULD