Severe Thunderstorm Warning 56, NWS Tallahassee, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1248 PM EDT SAT JUN 14 2003

.OVERVIEW...THE WESTERLIES REMAIN CONFINED TO THE NRN TIER OF STATES
AND CANADA. ACROSS THE SRN U.S., THE BURMUDA HIGH REMAINS ANCHORED
TO OUR E OVER THE NW ATLANTIC WITH A TROUGH NEARLY STATIONARY OVER
THE SRN PLAINS. A SURFACE FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE ERN LAKES SW ACROSS
THE OHIO AND MID MS VALLEY AND INTO NRN TX.

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUE. THE UPPER RIDGE TO OUR E WILL
TEMPORARILY WIN THE TUG OF WAR WITH THE TROUGH TO THE W TONIGHT AND
SUN. THIS WILL ALLOW MEAN RH TO DIMINISH AND PW TO DROP A FEW TENTHS
OF AN INCH BY SUN AFTERNOON. THIS IS REFLECTED IN LOWER MOS POPS.
POPS WILL BE LOWERED ACROSS THE BOARD ON SUN. THE TROUGH THEN
BEGINS TO SLIDE EWD AND THIS SHOULD HELP TO INCREASE RAIN CHANCES
ONCE AGAIN. FOR MON, WILL SHOW HIGHER POPS OVER OUR NW AND SE ZONES
WITH A MINIMUM IN THE MIDDLE. OUR SE AL ZONES WILL BE CLOSER TO THE
SURFACE WAVE WHICH WILL FORM ALONG THE SLOW MOVING FRONT. OVER THE
FL BIG BEND...THE MODELS SHOW SOME DEEPER MOISTURE ON MON. ALSO, THE
SEA BREEZE REGIME (LOW TO MID LEVEL FLOW SW 10 KT OR SO) FAVORS
SLIGHTLY HIGHER POPS IN THIS AREA. FOR TUE, THERE ARE INDICATIONS
THAT A TROPICAL LOW MAY DEVELOP IN THE S CENTRAL GULF OFF THE
YUCATAN. EVEN IF WE ONLY SEE AN INVERTED TROUGH THERE, MOISTURE WILL
INCREASE FROM THE SE BETWEEN THIS TROUGH AND THE HIGH TO THE E. WILL
THEREFORE SHOW SLIGHTLY HIGHER POPS SE THAN NW.

.MARINE...NO HIGHLIGHTS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THU.

.FIRE WX...TOO HUMID FOR ANY CONCERNS.

.EXTENDED...WED THROUGH SAT. WILL KEEP THE FORECAST UNSETTLED. THE
LONG WAVE PATTERN WILL NOT CHANGE MUCH WITH THE BURMUDA HIGH TO OUR
E AND A POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH TO OUR NW THROUGH THU. GFS DOES
SHOW THIS TROUGH SAGGING FURTHER TO THE SE BY FRI AND SAT. THIS WILL
HELP TO BRING A FRONT DEEP INTO THE S BY SAT. IT IS TOO FAR OFF TO
SPECULATE WHETHER WE WILL SEE A FRONTAL PASSAGE HERE IN N FL. FOR
NOW WILL JUST KEEP ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER AND HIGH POPS IN THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

TLH 72 93 71 92 / 20 30 20 40
PFN 75 89 75 88 / 10 20 10 30
DHN 72 90 72 90 / 20 30 20 40
ABY 72 92 72 91 / 20 30 20 40
VLD 71 94 72 93 / 20 30 20 30
CTY 71 92 72 91 / 20 30 20 40

.TLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
FL...NONE.

18-WOOL

GMZ750-755-770-775-ALZ065>069-FLZ007>019-026>029-034-GAZ120>131-
142>148-155>161-151000-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
600 AM EDT SAT JUN 14 2003

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL
GEORGIA...THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AND EASTERN PANHANDLE...AND THE
ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE ENTIRE
OUTLOOK AREA MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE OVERALL THREAT FOR SEVERE
WEATHER IS LOW. HOWEVER DURING THE SUMMER...A STORM OR TWO CAN
BRIEFLY REACH SEVERE LIMITS WITH LITTLE WARNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...
NO SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS ANTICIPATED.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY...AND SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL
NOT BE REQUIRED.

.RIP CURRENTS...
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF RIP CURRENTS THIS AFTERNOON.

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE IN TALLAHASSEE VIA OUR WEB SITE AT WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TLH/ OR
LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...LOCAL TELEVISION OR RADIO STATIONS.

48-TURNAGE