Severe Thunderstorm Warning 44, NWS Tallahassee, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE
217 AM EDT SAT APR 26 2003

SYNOPSIS: THE UPPER LOW IS MOVING STEADILY E ACROSS THE TN VALLEY.
THE TRAILING VORT LOBE IS PUSHING INTO AL FROM MS. THE COLD FRONT IS
NOW PUSHING THROUGH N GA, SE AL AND THE MS RIVER DELTA IN SE LA.
AREA OF CONVECTION PRECEDING THE FRONT HAS WEAKENED FROM THE
INTENSITY SAW EARLIER IN THE NIGHT FURTHER NW. HOWEVER, ISOLATED
SUPERCELLS DID DEVELOPED IN SW GA. 00Z KTLH SOUNDING INDICATED A
BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZED BY EARLIER CONVECTION. THEREFORE, DID NOT
SEE ANY DAMAGING WINDS MIX DOWN. HOWEVER, WITH THE FREEZING LEVEL
DOWN AROUND 12 KFT AND THE WET BULB ZERO BELOW 9 KFT AND FALLING,
NOT SURPRISED THAT GOLF BALL HAIL WAS REPORTED IN MILLER CO. RECENT
TRENDS INDICATE ADDITIONAL WEAKENING AND WATCH WILL BE ALLOWED TO
EXPIRE AT 3 AM EDT.

MODEL DISCUSSION: AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES INTO THE CAROLINAS, THE
VORT LOBE WILL SWING E ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA LATER THIS MORNING.
THIS WILL HELP TO PUSH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO NEAR TLH AROUND 12Z
AND SE OF CTY BY AROUND 18-19Z. ISOLATED MORNING POPS WILL BE
MAINTAINED FOR SERN 1/2 OF THE FORECAST AREA. LOW CLOUDS WRAPPING
AROUND THE LOW WILL REMAIN N OF THE AREA. SHORT WAVE RIDGE WILL
BUILD GRADUALLY EWD FROM THE SRN PLAINS THROUGH MON WITH SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE MOVING EWD FROM THE MID MS VALLEY TO THE NC COAST
DURING THIS TIME. TIME HEIGHT CROSS SECTIONS INDICATE SOME MOISTURE
HANGING IN BELOW 850 MB INTO MON. THIS COULD RESULT IN SOME CU EACH
AFTERNOON, BUT  SKIES SHOULD CLEAR AT NIGHT.

MARINE: SEAS FINALLY REACHED SCA CRITERIA, MAINLY IN SWELLS AT BUOY
42039 AROUND MIDNIGHT. HOWEVER, AS THE LARGE CLUSTER OF STORMS SE OF
THE AREA CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY, EXPECT A GRADUAL DOWNTURN. 05Z OB
INDICATED THIS IS ALREADY HAPPENING. DO NOT PLAN TO INSERT CAUTION
HEADLINE ATTM, BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR. LOOKING FOR GENERALLY W
WINDS LATER TODAY AT ABOUT 15 KT. WINDS WILL THEN BECOME NLY
OVERNIGHT AND WEAKEN WITH DIURNAL SEA/LAND BREEZES DOMINATING SUN
AND MON. NO HIGHLIGHTS ARE ANTICIPATED SUN THROUGH FRI.

FIRE WX: MARGINAL DURATIONS OF RH BELOW 35 PERCENT ARE ANTICIPATED
ACROSS OUR INLAND FL ZONES ON SUN. A WATCH WILL BE POSTED.

EXTENDED: AS THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES E OF THE AREA, ONSHORE FLOW MAY
TOUCH OFF ISOLATED SEA BREEZE CONVECTION EACH DAY. IN ADDITION,
LATEST GFS ACTUALLY SHOWS A WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT MOVING INTO THE AREA
ON TUE. WILL LEAVE CURRENT FORECAST IN TACT.

PRELIM NUMBERS...

TLH  83 53 86 56  1000
PFN  79 59 82 62  -000
DHN  78 57 83 60  -000
ABY  79 55 83 58  -000
VLD  82 55 86 57  1000
CTY  82 57 84 57  2000

.TLH...
AL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
FL...FIRE WX WATCH NOON TO SUNSET SUN INLAND AREAS INCLUDING
     FLZ07-09>11-13-16>19-26.

WOOL

ALZ065>069-FLZ007>019-026>029-034-GAZ120>131-142>148-155>161-261000-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
545 AM EDT FRI APR 25 2003

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL
GEORGIA...THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AND EASTERN PANHANDLE...AND THE
ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.
THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER INDICATES THAT THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY ACROSS THE ENTIRE OUTLOOK AREA. A WARM
FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING. A COLD FRONT
WILL FOLLOW LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION. THE STORMS
WILL BE PROLIFIC LIGHTNING PRODUCERS TODAY. IN ADDITION...A FEW OF
STORMS MAY PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL. AN ISOLATED
TORNADO WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING IN SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE. ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN THIS EVENING.
HOWEVER...THE FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE THROUGH AND ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE NIGHT.
WINDS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 20 KNOTS. THIS
WILL GENERATE SEAS OF 7 TO 8 FEET. FOR THIS REASON...A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR TODAY. WINDS AND SEAS WILL GRADUALLY
SUBSIDE TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE SATURDAY MORNING.
THE FRONT WILL THEN PUSH EAST OF THE AREA BY MIDDAY TAKING ANY
REMAINING SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH IT. HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT
ANTICIPATED FROM SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
SINCE SOME STORMS MAY APPROACH OR EXCEED SEVERE LIMITS...SPOTTER
ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED TODAY.

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE IN TALLAHASSEE VIA OUR WEB SITE AT WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TLH/ OR
LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...LOCAL TELEVISION OR RADIO STATIONS.

18-WOOL

ALZ065>069-FLZ007>014-016-017-026-GAZ120>131-142>148-155>161-260700-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1000 PM EDT FRI APR 25 2003

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
NUMBER 173 FOR SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA...
THE EASTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND WESTERN BIG BEND...AND THE ADJACENT
COASTAL WATERS...EFFECTIVE UNTIL 300 AM EDT SATURDAY MORNING (200 AM CDT
SATURDAY MORNING). THIS WATCH REPLACES TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 172 THAT
INCLUDED SOUTHEAST ALABAMA.

THIS WATCH INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES:

IN ALABAMA...
COFFEE...GENEVA...DALE...HENRY...AND HOUSTON.

IN FLORIDA...
WALTON...HOLMES...WASHINGTON...BAY...JACKSON...CALHOUN...GULF...
GADSDEN...LIBERTY...LEON...AND JEFFERSON.

IN GEORGIA...
QUITMAN...CLAY...EARLY...MILLER...SEMINOLE...RANDOLPH...CALHOUN...
BAKER...DECATUR...TERRELL...DOUGHERTY...MITCHELL...GRADY...LEE...
WORTH...COLQUITT...THOMAS...TURNER...TIFT...COOK...BROOKS...BEN
HILL...IRWIN...BERRIEN...LANIER...AND LOWNDES.

REMEMBER A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE
FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA. PEOPLE IN
THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING WEATHER
CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

48-TURNAGE