Severe Thunderstorm Warning 23, NWS Tallahassee, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
830 PM EST TUE MAR 18 2003

WATER VAPOR ANIMATION SHOWS A POTENT S/WAVE TROUGH & VORT MAX
SWINGING EWD INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY...ALONG W/ 100+ KT MID-LEVEL
JET MAX MOVING INTO THE WRN GULF. MESOANALYSIS HAS AN E-W WARM FRONT
FROM THE NE GULF INTO ERN LA. LOCAL AIRMASS WAS MOIST/MARGINALLY
UNSTABLE (PWAT 1.33/LI -1). 00Z BHM/JAN SOUNDINGS BOTH EXHIBIT 30 KT
LOW-LEVEL JET W/ AMPLE DIRECTIONAL/SPEED SHEAR IN THE LOWEST 6 KM.
SPCS LATEST DAY ONE OUTLOOK PLACES THE EXTREME WRN ZONES OF OUR
CWFA IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THRU 12Z WED. AREA 88DS SHOWING
ISENTROPIC-INDUCED CONVECTION INCREASING IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY OVER
OUR COASTAL WATERS W OF AQQ & MAKING A BEELINE FOR THE PANHANDLE.
OTHER ISOLATED SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER GA ZONES. OBVIOUSLY...WILL
HAVE TO RAISE POPS FOR SE AL/ERN PANHANDLE & PROBABLY INSERT STRONG
TSTM WORDING FOR THESE AREAS. WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE
REST OF OUR CWFA. SPC HAS JUST ISSUED TOR WATCH #54 WHOSE ERN BORDER
IS ALONG THE WALTON COUNTY LINE. WILL MAINTAIN CLOSE RADAR WATCH FOR
OUR WRN ZONES FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS & ISSUE UPDATED HWO SHORTLY.

ELY WINDS SLOWLY INCREASING PAST FEW HOURS W/ PANAMA CITY BUOY AT
SCEC CRITERIA (16-17 KTS). NEAR SHORE WINDS WERE 5-10 KTS. SEAS
RUNNING 2-4 FT. FOR THE EVENING UPDATE...WILL INSERT CAUTION
HEADLINE FOR THE WATERS & INCREASE AREAL COVERAGE.

.TLH...
AL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
FL...NONE.

MAJ

ALZ065>069-FLZ007>019-026>029-034-GAZ120>131-142>148-155>161-GMZ750-
755-770-775-191100-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
845 PM EST TUE MAR 18 2003

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL
GEORGIA...THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AND EASTERN PANHANDLE...AND THE
ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT...
A WARM FRONT LOCATED SOUTH OF THE COASTAL WATERS THIS EVENING IN
CONCERT WITH AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BE THE
FOCI FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF SOUTHEAST
ALABAMA...THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INTO THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS. A FEW OF THE STORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO REACH
SEVERE LIMITS AND PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. DUE TO
FAVORABLE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR PARAMETERS...AN ISOLATED TORNADO IS
POSSIBLE. OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE OUTLOOK AREA...WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
THE WARM FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTH ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY
WITH A CONTINUED CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS. A COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH LATE THURSDAY AND MOVE THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE.
BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY APPEAR DRY...WITH THE NEXT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BECOME NECESSARY OVER SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND
THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY.

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE IN TALLAHASSEE VIA OUR WEB SITE AT WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TLH/ OR
LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...LOCAL TELEVISION OR RADIO STATIONS.

MAJ