Alert archive / Michigan / Tornado Watches in 2003

Tornado Watch 878

August 21, 200337 counties in Michigan

The Storm Prediction Center issued this tornado watch at Aug 21, 2003, 1:30 PM EDT for 37 counties in Michigan. It was in force for 6 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Aug 21, 2003, 1:30 PM EDT (17:30 UTC)
Expired
Aug 21, 2003, 7:00 PM EDT
In force
6 hr
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
All 37 counties

Alcona County, MI, Alpena County, MI, Antrim County, MI, Arenac County, MI, Bay County, MI, Benzie County, MI, Charlevoix County, MI, Cheboygan County, MI, Chippewa County, MI, Clare County, MI, Crawford County, MI, Emmet County, MI, Gladwin County, MI, Grand Traverse County, MI, Iosco County, MI, Isabella County, MI, Kalkaska County, MI, Lake County, MI, Leelanau County, MI, Luce County, MI, Mackinac County, MI, Manistee County, MI, Mason County, MI, Mecosta County, MI, Midland County, MI, Missaukee County, MI, Montmorency County, MI, Newaygo County, MI, Oceana County, MI, Ogemaw County, MI, Osceola County, MI, Oscoda County, MI, Otsego County, MI, Presque Isle County, MI, Roscommon County, MI, Schoolcraft County, MI, Wexford County, MI

Warnings issued inside it

13 tornado, severe thunderstorm and flash flood warnings for its counties while it was in force.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Aug 21, 2:13 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningMQTLuce, Schoolcraft62 min
Aug 21, 2:48 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningAPXChippewa57 min
Aug 21, 3:03 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningAPXMontmorency, Presque Isle57 min
Aug 21, 3:15 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningMQTLuce25 min
Aug 21, 3:46 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningAPXChippewa44 min
Aug 21, 3:48 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningAPXOscoda57 min
Aug 21, 4:09 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningAPXRoscommon36 min
Aug 21, 4:15 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningAPXAlpena, Presque Isle60 min
Aug 21, 4:34 PM EDTTornado WarningAPXAlpena41 min
Aug 21, 4:40 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningAPXOgemaw65 min
Aug 21, 4:49 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningAPXAlcona71 min
Aug 21, 6:00 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningAPXIosco30 min
Aug 21, 6:27 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningAPXIosco33 min

Discussions around it

SPC mesoscale discussions over the same counties from four hours before the watch to its end.

The nearest sounding before it

Green Bay/Straub, WI (KGRB), launched 12:00Z, 5.5 hours before the alert went out and 234 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Green Bay/Straub, WI at 12:00Z on 2003-08-21Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 1787 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Green Bay/Straub, WI at 12:00Z on 2003-08-21The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 297 square meters per square second.193958Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
1787 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-178 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
1082 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
38 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
297 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
304 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
1.4

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

086 
WWUS20 KWNS 211736
SEL8  
SPC WW 211730
MIZ000-LMZ000-LSZ000-LHZ000-212300-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 878 
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 
130 PM EDT THU AUG 21 2003

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF 

       EASTERN UPPER AND NORTHERN/CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN
       LAKE MICHIGAN
       LAKE SUPERIOR
       LAKE HURON

EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 130 PM UNTIL
700 PM EDT.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS
TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS ALONG AND 85 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST
OF A LINE FROM 35 MILES NORTH OF SAULT STE MARIE MICHIGAN TO 55
MILES WEST OF SAGINAW MICHIGAN.

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA.
PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING
WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE
WARNINGS.




DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY ALONG PREFRONTAL
TROUGH NOW APPROACHING WRN LWR MI...AND ALONG COLD FRONT CROSSING
THE CNTRL U.P ...AS POTENT UPPER IMPULSE NOW OVER NRN WI CONTINUES
EWD.  WHILE DEEP WIND PROFILES ARE LARGELY UNIDIRECTIONAL...LENGTH
OF HODOGRAPHS /50+ KT FLOW AOA 3 KM ON GRB VWP/...DEGREE OF
INSTABILITY /100 MB MLCAPE TO 2000 J/KG/ AND CELLULAR NATURE OF
EXISTING STORMS SUGGEST POSSIBILITY OF TORNADOES IN ADDITION TO
SUPERCELLS/BOWING SEGMENTS WITH HIGH WIND.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND
GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 550.
MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 27035.


...CORFIDI

465,0823 432,0832 432,0865 465,0860

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Aug 20, 8:22 PM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCGogebic, Iron, Ontonagon113 min
Aug 21, 5:29 AM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAntrim, Arenac, Barry, Bay, Calhoun, Cheboygan and 26 more3 hr
Aug 21, 1:07 PM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAlger, Antrim, Benzie, Charlevoix, Cheboygan, Chippewa and 34 more113 min
Aug 21, 3:49 PM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAlcona, Alpena, Antrim, Arenac, Bay, Benzie and 31 more86 min
Aug 21, 6:20 PM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAlcona, Alpena, Antrim, Arenac, Bay, Benzie and 31 more55 min

Nearby

Tornado Watches in Michigan, 2003Every tornado watch in 2003

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive.