Mesoscale Discussion 99

Issued

Feb 20, 2003, 11:02 AM MST (18:02 UTC)

Expired

Feb 20, 2003, 4:00 PM MST

In force

5 hr

Issued by

the Storm Prediction Center

Counties Bernalillo County, NM, Lincoln County, NM, Socorro County, NM, Torrance County, NM, Valencia County, NM

000 
ACUS11 KWNS 201803
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 201802 
NMZ000-202300-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0099
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1202 PM CST THU FEB 20 2003

AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL AND S-CENTRAL NEW MEXICO ABOVE 6000 FEET

CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW 

VALID 201802Z - 202300Z

HEAVY SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ABOVE 6000FT THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS THE MTNS OF CENTRAL NM. FORCING WILL
INCREASE TONIGHT FOR SNOW...GENERALLY ABOVE 7000FT ACROSS THE
MTNS OF S-CENTRAL NM.



INTENSE VORT MAX OVER THE LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY PER IR/WV IMAGERY
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SEWD OVER THE NEXT 6-12 HRS IN RESPONSE TO A
STRONG /100KT/ 500MB JET ON THE SYSTEM/S WRN PERIPHERY. DIFFLUENT
UPPER FLOW AND MODEST WARM ADVECTION WILL PROVIDE LARGE-SCALE
ASCENT ACROSS CENTRAL NM TODAY...SHIFTING INTO SRN NM TONIGHT.
LIGHTNING STRIKES ACROSS SWRN NM AT 17Z ARE INDICATIVE OF HIGH
LAPSE RATES AROUND 7 C/KM AND MINIMAL CAPE VALUES WHICH WILL
PERSIST OVER THE DISCUSSION AREA INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS PER
12Z ETA FORECAST SOUNDINGS. PERIODIC CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS
MOVING SLOWLY NEWD ACROSS CENTRAL NM WILL PRODUCE OCCASIONAL
HEAVY SNOW THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON GENERALLY ABOVE 6 KFT...WITH
RATES BRIEFLY TO 1-2/HR IN CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS IN THE MOUNTAINS
SURROUNDING THE ABQ AREA.

..BANACOS.. 02/20/2003

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

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Mesoscale Discussions in New Mexico, 2003Every mesoscale discussion in 2003

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive.