Alert archive / Florida / Mesoscale Discussions in 2003

Mesoscale Discussion 975

May 14, 200318 counties in Florida

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at May 14, 2003, 2:07 PM EDT for 18 counties in Florida. It was in force for 113 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: May 14, 2003, 2:07 PM EDT (18:07 UTC)
Expired: May 14, 2003, 4:00 PM EDT
In force: 113 min
Issued by: the Storm Prediction Center

Counties Broward County, FL, Charlotte County, FL, Collier County, FL, DeSoto County, FL, Glades County, FL, Hardee County, FL, Hendry County, FL, Hernando County, FL, Highlands County, FL, Hillsborough County, FL, Lee County, FL, Manatee County, FL, Miami-Dade County, FL, Monroe County, FL, Pasco County, FL, Pinellas County, FL, Polk County, FL, Sarasota County, FL

The radar

The Miami radar (KAMX), 136 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 18:08 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Miami, FL (KMFL), launched 12:00Z, 6.1 hours before the alert went out and 127 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 1520 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -21 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 964 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 32 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 31 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 35 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.2
Supercell composite: 2.7

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

258 
ACUS11 KWNS 141807
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 141807 
FLZ000-142000-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0975
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0107 PM CDT WED MAY 14 2003

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN / WRN PORTIONS OF THE FL PENINSULA...

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 141807Z - 142000Z

THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND A LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUST APPEARS TO
EXIST ACROSS SRN AND WRN PORTIONS OF THE FL PENINSULA SOUTH OF OCF. 
ISOLATED NATURE OF THREAT SHOULD PRECLUDE THE NEED FOR WW ISSUANCE.

MORNING MFL AND TBW INDICATED MARGINAL /6 TO 6.5 C/KM/ LAPSE RATES
ABOVE VERY MOIST /LOW TO MID 70S DEWPOINTS/ BOUNDARY LAYER.  AS A
RESULT...1000 TO 1500 J/KG MEAN-LAYER CAPE HAS DEVELOPED WITH
DAYTIME HEATING ACROSS THIS AREA.

ELY LOW-LEVEL FLOW HAS ALLOWED WEAK CONVERGENCE AXIS / E COAST
SEA-BREEZE BOUNDARY TO MOVE EWD INTO CENTRAL FL WEST OF LAKE
OKEECHOBEE...AND W COAST BOUNDARY HAS BEGIN MOVING SLOWLY INLAND. 
TCU ARE DEVELOPING IN NARROW ZONE OF INCREASING LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE BETWEEN THESE TWO BOUNDARIES.


ALTHOUGH LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELD IS WEAK...30 TO 40 KT WLY MID-LEVEL
FLOW IS INDICATED...SUGGESTING THAT AS THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP OVER
THE NEXT HOUR OR SO...THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD INCREASE -- PRIMARILY
INLAND FROM THE W COAST FROM ROUGHLY BKV SWD.

..GOSS.. 05/14/2003

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...EYW...TBW...JAX...

26098010 25408018 24978064 25168126 26998239 27928284
29078246 27908155 26428067

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Florida, 2003 Every mesoscale discussion in 2003

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.