Alert archive / Minnesota / Mesoscale Discussions in 2003

Mesoscale Discussion 972

May 14, 200326 counties in Minnesota

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at May 14, 2003, 12:30 PM CDT for 26 counties in Minnesota. It was in force for 2 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: May 14, 2003, 12:30 PM CDT (17:30 UTC)
Expired: May 14, 2003, 2:30 PM CDT
In force: 2 hr
Issued by: the Storm Prediction Center

All 26 counties

Anoka County, MN, Benton County, MN, Blue Earth County, MN, Carver County, MN, Dakota County, MN, Dodge County, MN, Faribault County, MN, Freeborn County, MN, Goodhue County, MN, Hennepin County, MN, Kandiyohi County, MN, Le Sueur County, MN, McLeod County, MN, Meeker County, MN, Mower County, MN, Nicollet County, MN, Olmsted County, MN, Ramsey County, MN, Rice County, MN, Scott County, MN, Sherburne County, MN, Sibley County, MN, Stearns County, MN, Steele County, MN, Waseca County, MN, Wright County, MN

The radar

The Minneapolis radar (KMPX), 49 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 17:31 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Minneapolis, MN (KMPX), launched 12:00Z, 5.5 hours before the alert went out and 46 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 1 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -38 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 579 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 18 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 29 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 71 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

869 
ACUS11 KWNS 141731
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 141730 
MNZ000-WIZ000-IAZ000-141930-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0972
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1230 PM CDT WED MAY 14 2003

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN MN

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 141730Z - 141930Z

ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER SOUTHERN
MN DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS.  A MARGINAL SEVERE HAIL THREAT
EXISTS...BUT WW IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED.

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEGUN TO DEVELOP ALONG SURFACE FRONT
OVER SOUTHERN MN.  THESE STORMS ARE JUST AHEAD OF CLOSED UPPER
LOW...WHERE 500MB TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM -19 TO -22C.	SURFACE
DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW/MID 50S AND SOME DAYTIME HEATING ARE RESULTING
IN SBCAPE VALUES OF AROUND 1000 J/KG.  GIVEN STEEP LAPSE RATES AND
LOW MELTING LEVELS...STRONGER CELLS WILL LIKELY CONTAIN SMALL OR
EVEN MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL.  HOWEVER...AREAL COVERAGE OF SEVERE
STORMS SHOULD BE QUITE LIMITED AND VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILE ARE RATHER
WEAK.  THEREFORE...WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.


..HART.. 05/14/2003

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ARX...MPX...DMX...

45969496 45949371 44059209 43459295 43639402 45269512
45739539

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Minnesota, 2003 Every mesoscale discussion in 2003

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.