Mesoscale Discussion 97

Issued

Feb 20, 2003, 6:42 AM CST (12:42 UTC)

Expired

Feb 20, 2003, 9:45 AM CST

In force

3 hr

Issued by

the Storm Prediction Center

The Corpus Christi radar (KCRP), 92 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 12:42 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

445 
ACUS11 KWNS 201242
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 201242 
TXZ000-201545-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0097
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0642 AM CST THU FEB 20 2003

AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/SOUTH TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAINFALL 

VALID 201242Z - 201545Z

ISOLATED STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH MID
MORNING ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH TX.  DUE TO VERY
ISOLATED NATURE OF SEVERE THREAT...WW IS NOT CURRENTLY
ANTICIPATED.



RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SEVERAL THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING ACROSS PARTS
OF CENTRAL/SOUTH TX.  THESE STORMS HAVE BEEN FORMING ALONG AND
JUST NORTH OF WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM DUVAL COUNTY
TO SOUTH OF PSX.  SURFACE AIRMASS SOUTH OF FRONT IS MOIST AND
MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S AND MULI VALUES
OF -4 TO -6.  NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY...ELEVATED CAPE VALUES OF UP
TO 500 J/KG ARE INDICATED IN LATEST RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS.



PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT ISOLATED STRONG/SEVERE STORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP NEAR THIS BOUNDARY AND SPREAD EASTWARD.  LOW
LEVEL VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES AND LOW LCL VALUES SUGGEST SOME
POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF TORNADOES ALONG BOUNDARY...WHILE STEEP MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES SUGGEST A POTENTIAL FOR HAIL IN STRONGEST CELLS
NORTH OF BOUNDARY.  TRAINING OF EMBEDDED CELLS MAY ALSO RESULT IN
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL RATES THROUGH THE MORNING NEAR AND NORTH
OF SAT.  SEVERE THREAT APPEARS RATHER MARGINAL AND ISOLATED...SO
WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

..HART.. 02/20/2003

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

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Mesoscale Discussions in Texas, 2003Every mesoscale discussion in 2003

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.