Alert archive / Massachusetts / Mesoscale Discussions in 2003

Mesoscale Discussion 96

February 17, 20035 states

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Feb 17, 2003, 7:08 PM EST for 5 states. It was in force for 6 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Feb 17, 2003, 7:08 PM EST (00:08 UTC)
Expired: Feb 18, 2003, 1:15 AM EST
In force: 6 hr
Issued by: the Storm Prediction Center

All 21 counties

Berkshire County, MA, Essex County, MA, Franklin County, MA, Hampshire County, MA, Middlesex County, MA, Suffolk County, MA, Worcester County, MA, Cumberland County, ME, Lincoln County, ME, Sagadahoc County, ME, York County, ME, Belknap County, NH, Cheshire County, NH, Hillsborough County, NH, Merrimack County, NH, Rockingham County, NH, Strafford County, NH, Sullivan County, NH, Rensselaer County, NY, Bennington County, VT, Windham County, VT

The nearest sounding before it

Gray, ME (KGYX), launched 00:00Z, 0.1 hours before the alert went out and 151 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL: 1160 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 42 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 215 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 250 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

038 
ACUS11 KWNS 180008
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 180008 
MAZ000-VTZ000-NHZ000-MEZ000-NYZ000-180615-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0096
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0608 PM CST MON FEB 17 2003

AREAS AFFECTED...EXTREME ERN NY TO COASTAL MAINE

CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW 

VALID 180008Z - 180615Z

EXPECT SNOWFALL RATES FROM 1/2 TO 1 IN/HR THRU 18/06Z FROM
CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND TO COASTAL MAINE.



WV/IR IMAGERY WAS SHOWING MID-LVL LOW CNTR OVER NCNTRL OH WITH
DISCERNABLE DRY SLOT /INDICATIVE OF MID-UPPER LVL SPEED MAX/ FROM
THE COASTAL CAROLINAS NNEWD TO OFFSHORE NEW ENGLAND. HOWEVER...
LATEST IR IMAGERY WAS ALSO INDICATING REDEVELOPMENT OF COOLING
TOPS WITHIN DEFORMATION AXIS FROM ERN NY ACROSS MA. 



MOST RECENT COMPOSITE RADAR IMAGERY INDICATED SNOWFALL RATES WERE
ON THE DECREASE IN CNTRL NY STATE LIKELY DUE TO THE GRADUAL ENEWD
SHIFT OF BETTER ATLANTIC MOISTURE INFLUX. IN FACT...17/21Z RUC20
WAS FCSTG THE 850MB ELY LLJ TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN FROM AROUND 60 KT
AT 18/00Z...TO AROUND 40 KT BY 18/06-09Z ALONG THE COAST OF
MA/NH. THE GRADUAL WEAKENING AND NEWD SHIFT OF THIS MOIST ENELY
LOW-LVL FLOW COUPLED WITH A NEWD SHIFT IN THE STRONGER UVM FIELDS
SUGGEST A NARROWING AXIS OF HEAVIER SNOWFALL RATES THRU 18/06Z.
EXPECT HEAVIEST SNOWFALL TO SHIFT FROM EXTREME ERN NY STATE/WRN
MA/SRN VT BETWEEN 18/00-03Z...ENEWD TO SRN NH/ERN MA/AND COASTAL
ME BETWEEN 18/03-06Z.

..NADEN/CARBIN.. 02/18/2003

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

42127337 42277361 42567380 42897368 43307328 43657137
43927055 44116986 44366881 43816944 43517007 42237108
42177221

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Massachusetts, 2003 Mesoscale Discussions in New Hampshire, 2003 Mesoscale Discussions in Maine, 2003 Every mesoscale discussion in 2003

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive.