Alert archive / Arkansas / Mesoscale Discussions in 2003
Mesoscale Discussion 957
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at May 13, 2003, 1:18 PM CDT for 12 counties in Arkansas; 8 counties in Oklahoma. It was in force for 87 min.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- May 13, 2003, 1:18 PM CDT (18:18 UTC)
- Expired
- May 13, 2003, 2:45 PM CDT
- In force
- 87 min
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
Counties Benton County, AR, Crawford County, AR, Franklin County, AR, Johnson County, AR, Logan County, AR, Madison County, AR, Newton County, AR, Pope County, AR, Scott County, AR, Sebastian County, AR, Washington County, AR, Yell County, AR, Adair County, OK, Cherokee County, OK, Delaware County, OK, Haskell County, OK, LeFlore County, OK, Mayes County, OK, Muskogee County, OK, Sequoyah County, OK
The radar
The Western Arkansas radar (KSRX), 38 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 18:22 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The watches that followed
Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.
The nearest sounding before it
Springfield, MO (KSGF), launched 12:00Z, 6.3 hours before the alert went out and 154 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 0 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- No buoyant parcel
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 1853 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 58 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 168 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 173 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- -0.0
The text
As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.
431 ACUS11 KWNS 131818 SWOMCD SPC MCD 131818 ARZ000-MOZ000-OKZ000-131945- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0957 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0118 PM CDT TUE MAY 13 2003 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN OK / NWRN AR CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 131818Z - 131945Z RECENT SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SUGGESTS CONVECTIVE COMPLEX HAS BEGUN TO CHANGE CHARACTER OVER THE PAST HOUR. IT APPEARS AN INCREASING WIND DAMAGE THREAT COULD BE DEVELOPING. WW MAY BE NEEDED SHORTLY. RECENT RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES ACTIVITY IN NERN OK/NWRN AR CONTINUES TO BECOME MORE LINEAR WITH A WARM ADVECTIVE WING POKING INTO NWRN AR/SWRN MO. THE MOST RECENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A NONDESCRIPT WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM NRN TX NWD THRU CNTRL OK WITH THE AREA OF CONCERN ONLY WEAKLY UNSTABLE AT THE SURFACE WITH LESS THAN 500 J/KG OF 50MB MIXED CAPE VALUES. HOWEVER...THE PRESENT CONVECTIVE COMPLEX IS ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER WITH TEMPERATURES FROM THE MID 60S INTO THE LOW 70S AND DEWPOINTS FROM THE UPPER 50S INTO THE LOW 60S. SOME BACKBUILDING IS POSSIBLE WITH INCREASING SWLY LOW-LVL INFLOW INTO NCNTRL/ECNTRL OK...BUT THE AREA WITH THE MAIN WIND THREAT APPEARS TO BE MOST LIKELY FROM NERN OK INTO EXTREME NWRN AR OVER THE NEXT HOUR. ..NADEN.. 05/13/2003 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...TSA... 34829320 34639394 34729469 35509564 36669523 36639443 36259336 35759290
SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 13, 10:08 AM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Benton | 97 min |
| May 13, 2:20 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Crawford, Franklin, Logan, Madison, Montgomery, Scott and 2 more | 6 hr |
| May 13, 3:33 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Crawford, Franklin, Logan, Madison, Scott, Sebastian and 1 more | 87 min |
| May 13, 5:45 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Arkansas, Ashley, Bradley, Calhoun, Chicot, Clark and 22 more | 4 hr |
| May 13, 6:18 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Arkansas, Ashley, Bradley, Calhoun, Chicot, Clark and 26 more | 87 min |
| May 13, 5:50 AM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Atoka, Bryan, Choctaw, Cleveland, Coal, Garvin and 7 more | 3 hr |
| May 13, 1:53 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Alfalfa, Blaine, Canadian, Cleveland, Creek, Garfield and 12 more | 97 min |
| May 13, 5:04 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Alfalfa, Beckham, Blaine, Caddo, Custer, Dewey and 11 more | 86 min |
Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in Arkansas, 2003Mesoscale Discussions in Oklahoma, 2003Every mesoscale discussion in 2003
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.