Alert archive / Texas / Mesoscale Discussions in 2003

Mesoscale Discussion 952

May 12, 2003Eddy County, Lea County, New Mexico; 9 counties in Texas

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at May 12, 2003, 4:28 PM MDT for Eddy County, Lea County, New Mexico; 9 counties in Texas. It was in force for 2 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
May 12, 2003, 4:28 PM MDT (22:28 UTC)
Expired
May 12, 2003, 6:30 PM MDT
In force
2 hr
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center

Counties Eddy County, NM, Lea County, NM, Brewster County, TX, Crane County, TX, Culberson County, TX, Jeff Davis County, TX, Loving County, TX, Pecos County, TX, Reeves County, TX, Ward County, TX, Winkler County, TX

The radar

The Midland/Odessa radar (KMAF), 152 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 22:31 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Midland Regional, TX (KMAF), launched 12:00Z, 10.5 hours before the alert went out and 152 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Midland Regional, TX at 12:00Z on 2003-05-12Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 0 joules per kilogram.LCL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Midland Regional, TX at 12:00Z on 2003-05-12The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 172 square meters per square second.19395878Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL
1383 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
49 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
172 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
200 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.9

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

899 
ACUS11 KWNS 122229
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 122228 
TXZ000-NMZ000-130030-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0952
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0528 PM CDT MON MAY 12 2003

AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN TX AND SERN NM

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 122228Z - 130030Z

SUPERCELLS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DEVELOPING OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF
SWRN TX. OTHER STORMS MAY DEVELOP A LITTLE FARTHER NWD INTO SERN NM.
LARGE HAIL IS EXPECTED TO BE THE MAIN THREAT.

A MOIST UPSLOPE COMPONENT ASSOCIATED WITH ESELY LOW LEVEL FLOW ON
THE SWRN PERIPHERY OF SURFACE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT STORMS
DEVELOPING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SWRN TX NEXT FEW HOURS. THE
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE ADVECTING NNWWD INTO SERN NM AS THE LOW LEVEL
JET STRENGTHENS THIS EVENING. THUS STORMS MAY ALSO DEVELOP FARTHER
NWD INTO SERN NM. SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH VEERING LOW LEVEL WIND
PROFILES UNDERNEATH 40-50 KT MID LEVEL FLOW WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS.
TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT SPREADS APPEAR LARGE ENOUGH TO SUGGEST THE
PRIMARY THREATS SHOULD BE LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS.	

..DIAL.. 05/12/2003

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...SJT...MAF...ABQ...

29690310 29890416 32220473 33090362 31570252 30580189

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
May 12, 12:40 PM MDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCChaves, Eddy, Lea2 hr

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Texas, 2003Mesoscale Discussions in New Mexico, 2003Every mesoscale discussion in 2003

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.