Alert archive / New York / Mesoscale Discussions in 2003

Mesoscale Discussion 9

January 1, 20036 counties in New Hampshire; 27 counties in New York; 6 counties in Vermont

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Jan 1, 2003, 8:04 PM EST for 6 counties in New Hampshire; 27 counties in New York; 6 counties in Vermont. It was in force for 6 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Jan 1, 2003, 8:04 PM EST (01:04 UTC)
Expired: Jan 2, 2003, 2:00 AM EST
In force: 6 hr
Issued by: the Storm Prediction Center

All 39 counties

Belknap County, NH, Cheshire County, NH, Grafton County, NH, Hillsborough County, NH, Merrimack County, NH, Sullivan County, NH, Albany County, NY, Broome County, NY, Cayuga County, NY, Chemung County, NY, Chenango County, NY, Cortland County, NY, Delaware County, NY, Fulton County, NY, Greene County, NY, Hamilton County, NY, Herkimer County, NY, Madison County, NY, Montgomery County, NY, Oneida County, NY, Onondaga County, NY, Otsego County, NY, Rensselaer County, NY, Saratoga County, NY, Schenectady County, NY, Schoharie County, NY, Schuyler County, NY, Seneca County, NY, Tioga County, NY, Tompkins County, NY, Warren County, NY, Washington County, NY, Yates County, NY, Addison County, VT, Bennington County, VT, Orange County, VT, Rutland County, VT, Windham County, VT, Windsor County, VT

The radar

The Albany radar (KENX), 64 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 01:03 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Albany, NY (KALY), launched 00:00Z, 1.1 hours before the alert went out and 52 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL: 540 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 40 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 70 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 351 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

909 
ACUS11 KWNS 020105
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 020104 
NYZ000-VTZ000-NHZ000-020700-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0009
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0704 PM CST WED JAN 01 2003

AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL AND ERN NY / SRN VT / SRN NH

CONCERNING...FREEZING RAIN

VALID 020104Z - 020700Z

FREEZING RAIN IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS
ACROSS CENTRAL AND ERN NY / SRN VT / SRN NH BEFORE CHANGING OVER
TO SLEET AND THEN EVENTUALLY SNOW FROM NW-SE.  LIQUID
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS .05 TO .10/HR ARE ANTICIPATED WITH LOCAL
AMOUNTS OVER .15/HR.


LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS SURFACE LOW NOW OVER NRN CHESAPEAKE
BAY...WITH UPPER CIRCULATION CENTER INDICATED BY WV IMAGERY OVER
SERN VA.  LATEST MODEL DATA SUGGESTS -- AND WV LOOP CONFIRMS --
THAT THE MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NEWD...AND
SHOULD REACH A POSITION SOUTHEAST OF LONG ISLAND BY 02/06Z.


BROAD SWATH OF MAINLY FREEZING RAIN CONTINUES IN DEFORMATION ZONE
NORTH OF UPPER SYSTEM FROM WRN NY EWD INTO SRN VT / SRN NH.
PRECIPITATION IS MAINLY RAIN FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS PA AND SRN
PORTIONS OF NEW ENGLAND.  LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE IN THE LOCATION
OF THE FREEZING LINE IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.
EVENTUALLY...AS THE SYSTEM MOVES NEWD OFF THE ATLANTIC
COAST...COLDER AIR ALOFT WILL BEGIN SPREADING SEWD.  THIS
SUGGESTS THAT A CHANGEOVER FROM LIQUID TO FROZEN PRECIPITATION
WILL GRADUALLY OCCUR FROM NW TO SE -- INITIALLY ACROSS UPSTATE NY
AND THEN SEWD TOWARD SRN NEW ENGLAND BY AROUND 02/06Z.

..GOSS.. 01/02/2003

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

44017137 43687105 42547185 42867301 42057425 42137694
42697730 43207652 43317609 44187308

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in New York, 2003 Mesoscale Discussions in New Hampshire, 2003 Mesoscale Discussions in Vermont, 2003 Every mesoscale discussion in 2003

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.