Alert archive / Texas / Mesoscale Discussions in 2003

Mesoscale Discussion 856

May 8, 200334 counties in Texas

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at May 8, 2003, 2:43 PM CDT for 34 counties in Texas. It was in force for 62 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
May 8, 2003, 2:43 PM CDT (19:43 UTC)
Expired
May 8, 2003, 3:45 PM CDT
In force
62 min
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Concerning
Severe thunderstorm potential
All 34 counties

Archer County, TX, Bosque County, TX, Brown County, TX, Burnet County, TX, Callahan County, TX, Clay County, TX, Coleman County, TX, Comanche County, TX, Concho County, TX, Coryell County, TX, Dallas County, TX, Denton County, TX, Eastland County, TX, Erath County, TX, Hamilton County, TX, Hill County, TX, Hood County, TX, Jack County, TX, Johnson County, TX, Lampasas County, TX, Llano County, TX, Mason County, TX, McCulloch County, TX, Menard County, TX, Mills County, TX, Montague County, TX, Palo Pinto County, TX, Parker County, TX, San Saba County, TX, Somervell County, TX, Stephens County, TX, Tarrant County, TX, Wise County, TX, Young County, TX

The watches that followed

Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.

The nearest sounding before it

Fort Worth, TX (KFWD), launched 12:00Z, 7.7 hours before the alert went out and 137 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Fort Worth, TX at 12:00Z on 2003-05-08Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 1954 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Fort Worth, TX at 12:00Z on 2003-05-08The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 291 square meters per square second.193958Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
1954 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-157 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
618 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
45 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
291 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
444 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
1.1
Supercell composite
8.1

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

165 
ACUS11 KWNS 081944
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 081943 COR
TXZ000-082045-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0856
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0243 PM CDT THU MAY 08 2003

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN AND CENTRAL TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 081943Z - 082045Z

CORRECTED FOR  UGC CODE

...TORNADO WATCH MIGHT BE NEEDED BY 300-400 PM... 


DRYLINE AT 19Z EXTENDS FROM SW OF LTS SWWD ALONG A LINE TO NEAR  ABI
AND SJT. AS SURFACE LOW MOVES EWD INTO CENTRAL KS...DRYLINE WILL
MOVE EWD AND IS FORECAST TO EXTEND FROM ABOUT 50 E OF SPS TO NEAR
JCT BY 22Z. TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE LOWER 90S EAST OF THE
DRYLINE. THESE TEMPERATURES WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S ARE
RESULTING IN MLCAPES BETWEEN 3000 TO 3500 J/KG. THE 18Z OUN SOUNDING
SHOWED THE CAP WOULD BE BROKEN WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID
80S....BUT MORE HEATING IS REQUIRED ACROSS NRN TX WHERE THE UPPER
FORCING IS WEAKER AND THE CAP IS STRONGER. SOME CUMULUS CLOUDS HAVE
RECENTLY DEVELOPED NEAR ABI AND SPS AND EXPECT THESE  WILL INCREASE
AS THE DRYLINE MOVES EWD INTO DEEPER BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE. WITH A
LITTLE MORE HEATING...THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP...THOUGH THEY MAY
BE MORE ISOLATED THAN FURTHER NORTH. HOWEVER...THE STRONG
INSTABILITY AND 40 KT DEEP LAYER SHEAR WOULD SUPPORT SUPERCELLS.
ONCE IT BECOMES APPEARS THAT THE CAP WILL BE BROKEN...A WW WOULD BE
ISSUED	     

..IMY.. 05/08/2003

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...EWX...SJT...

30649944 31060020 32329956 33349893 33939849 33959820
33589707 32849667 31129740 30649845

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
May 7, 8:01 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCArcher, Armstrong, Baylor, Bosque, Briscoe, Callahan and 59 more59 min
May 7, 8:15 PM CDTTornado WatchSPCBosque, Coryell, Ellis, Erath, Freestone, Hamilton and 7 more6 hr
May 7, 10:35 PM CDTTornado WatchSPCClay, Cooke, Fannin, Foard, Grayson, Hardeman and 3 more5 hr
May 7, 11:51 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCClay, Cooke, Fannin, Foard, Grayson, Hardeman and 3 more54 min
May 8, 1:57 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCCooke, Fannin, Grayson, Montague2 hr
May 8, 1:35 PM CDTTornado WatchSPCWichita7 hr
May 8, 3:40 PM CDTTornado WatchSPCArcher, Brown, Callahan, Clay, Coleman, Comanche and 18 more5 hr

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Texas, 2003Every mesoscale discussion in 2003

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive.