Mesoscale Discussion 841

Issued

May 8, 2003, 3:51 AM CDT (08:51 UTC)

Expired

May 8, 2003, 7:15 AM CDT

In force

3 hr

Issued by

the Storm Prediction Center

The Topeka radar (KTWX), 83 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 08:52 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

• Severe Thunderstorm Watch 297May 8, 4:15 AM CDT

149 
ACUS11 KWNS 080852
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 080851 
MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-IAZ000-NEZ000-081215-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0841
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0351 AM CDT THU MAY 08 2003

AREAS AFFECTED...NERN OK...NWRN AR...MUCH OF ERN/NRN KS...PORTIONS
SRN/ERN NEB...SWRN IA...WRN MO

CONCERNING...SEVERE TSTM POTENTIAL...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
295...

VALID 080851Z - 081215Z

HAIL POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD AND EXPAND NWD/NEWD FROM
PRESENT WW 195 ACROSS SERN NEB/SWRN IA/NWRN MO THROUGH 12Z AND
BEYOND.  ANOTHER WW MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THIS REGION.

CONVECTION CONTINUES TO EXPAND AND INTENSIFY IN BROAD...NW-SE
ORIENTED BELT FROM S-CENTRAL NEB SEWD TO NWRN AR...CORRESPONDING TO
STRONG LOW LEVEL WAA AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT REGIME N OF SFC WARM
FRONT NOW ANALYZED OVER NRN OK.  DESTABILIZATION WILL BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD IN ASSOCIATION WITH STEEPENING MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES AND
BROAD 45-60 KT LLJ NOW OBSERVED IN REGIONAL VWP DATA...AND FCST TO
CONTINUE THROUGH REMAINDER FOREDAWN HOURS.  ACCORDINGLY MODIFIED RUC
FCST SOUNDINGS YIELD ELEVATED MUCAPE RANGING FROM 500-1000 J/KG OVER
NEB/SW IA TO OVER 2000 J/KG OVER NERN OK/S-CENTRAL KS.	AREA OF
FAVORABLE CAPE AND VERTICAL SHEAR FOR ELEVATED HAILSTORM WILL EXPAND
OVER MORE OF LOWER MO VALLEY REGION.  MEANWHILE...STRENGTHENING CINH
ACROSS WRN PORTIONS OK/KS WILL ALSO EXPAND NEWD BEHIND SW EDGE OF
CURRENT CONVECTION...REDUCING SEVERE PROBABILITIES FROM SW-NE ACROSS
WW 295 WITH TIME.

..EDWARDS.. 05/08/2003

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...GID...DDC...DMX...FSD...OAX...LBF...GLD...

36759808 37779953 39349930 38529310 36099360 

39369932 38689940 40400113 41540046 41869965 42479828
42239642 41869473 41179359 39829302 38819297 38539306

Mesoscale Discussions in Nebraska, 2003Mesoscale Discussions in Kansas, 2003Mesoscale Discussions in Missouri, 2003Every mesoscale discussion in 2003

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.