Alert archive / Kansas / Mesoscale Discussions in 2003

Mesoscale Discussion 8

January 1, 200317 counties in Kansas; 14 counties in Missouri; 6 counties in Oklahoma

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Jan 1, 2003, 6:47 PM CST for 17 counties in Kansas; 14 counties in Missouri; 6 counties in Oklahoma. It was in force for 6 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Jan 1, 2003, 6:47 PM CST (00:47 UTC)
Expired
Jan 2, 2003, 12:45 AM CST
In force
6 hr
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
All 37 counties

Allen County, KS, Anderson County, KS, Bourbon County, KS, Chautauqua County, KS, Cherokee County, KS, Coffey County, KS, Cowley County, KS, Crawford County, KS, Elk County, KS, Greenwood County, KS, Labette County, KS, Linn County, KS, Montgomery County, KS, Neosho County, KS, Sumner County, KS, Wilson County, KS, Woodson County, KS, Barton County, MO, Bates County, MO, Benton County, MO, Cedar County, MO, Dade County, MO, Greene County, MO, Henry County, MO, Hickory County, MO, Jasper County, MO, Lawrence County, MO, Newton County, MO, Polk County, MO, St. Clair County, MO, Vernon County, MO, Craig County, OK, Kay County, OK, Nowata County, OK, Osage County, OK, Ottawa County, OK, Washington County, OK

The radar

The Tulsa radar (KINX), 120 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 00:44 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Springfield, MO (KSGF), launched 00:00Z, 0.8 hours before the alert went out and 168 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Springfield, MO at 00:00Z on 2003-01-02Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 11 joules per kilogram.LCLEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Springfield, MO at 00:00Z on 2003-01-02The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 166 square meters per square second.1939587897Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
11 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
0 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
388 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
59 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
166 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
224 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

185 
ACUS11 KWNS 020048
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 020047 
KSZ000-MOZ000-OKZ000-020645-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0008
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0647 PM CST WED JAN 01 2003

AREAS AFFECTED...SE KS/SW MO/NE OK

CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW

VALID 020047Z - 020645Z

...HEAVY SNOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF SE KS/SW MO/NE OK
THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...


RECENT RADAR IMAGES FROM THE WICHITA RADAR INDICATE A SNOWBAND
DEVELOPING FROM SUMNER COUNTY NE THROUGH GREENWOOD/ELK COUNTIES
IN SE KS. THIS SNOW IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEFORMATION ZONE...AND
THE BAND IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN STATIONARY THROUGH THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS. RADAR IMAGES FROM THE SGF RADAR INDICATE
PRECIPITATION INCRG ACROSS SW MO. THE 00Z SPRINGFIELD SOUNDING
HAS MOISTENED SIGNIFICANTLY SINCE THIS MORNING...AND FORECAST
SOUNDINGS FROM THE ETA SHOW HEAVY SNOW DEVELOPING BETWEEN 02-04Z.
 



CURRENT SFC TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE LOW TO MID 30S ACROSS SE KS
AND SRN MO...SO PRECIP MAY INITIALLY BE RAIN/FZRA BUT DRIER AIR
MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP
BELOW 32F AS THE COLUMN BECOMES SATURATED. ETA MODEL SOLUTIONS
SHOW THIS BAND EVENTUALLY SHIFTING SWD INTO NE OK AFTER 04-06Z.

..TAYLOR.. 01/02/2003

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

37099778 38489536 38619304 37099322 36609460 36569603
36499729

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Jan 1, 10:47 PM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBates, Benton, Callaway, Camden, Cedar, Cole and 20 more6 hr

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Kansas, 2003Mesoscale Discussions in Missouri, 2003Mesoscale Discussions in Oklahoma, 2003Every mesoscale discussion in 2003

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.