Alert archive / Kentucky / Mesoscale Discussions in 2003

Mesoscale Discussion 792

May 6, 200326 counties in Kentucky

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at May 6, 2003, 12:45 PM CDT for 26 counties in Kentucky. It was in force for 2 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
May 6, 2003, 12:45 PM CDT (17:45 UTC)
Expired
May 6, 2003, 2:45 PM CDT
In force
2 hr
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
All 26 counties

Barren County, KY, Breckinridge County, KY, Bullitt County, KY, Butler County, KY, Casey County, KY, Daviess County, KY, Edmonson County, KY, Grayson County, KY, Green County, KY, Hancock County, KY, Hardin County, KY, Hart County, KY, Hopkins County, KY, Larue County, KY, Logan County, KY, Marion County, KY, McLean County, KY, Meade County, KY, Muhlenberg County, KY, Nelson County, KY, Ohio County, KY, Spencer County, KY, Taylor County, KY, Todd County, KY, Warren County, KY, Washington County, KY

The radar

The Louisville radar (KLVX), 68 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 17:44 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Nashville Metro, TN (KBNA), launched 12:00Z, 5.8 hours before the alert went out and 153 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Nashville Metro, TN at 12:00Z on 2003-05-06Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 0 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Nashville Metro, TN at 12:00Z on 2003-05-06The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 122 square meters per square second.1939587897Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL
862 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
31 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
122 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
102 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

789 
ACUS11 KWNS 061745
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 061745 
KYZ000-INZ000-061945-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0792
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1245 PM CDT TUE MAY 06 2003

AREAS AFFECTED...WRN/CNTRL KY

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 061745Z - 061945Z

ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS WRN KY AND MOVE
EWD. ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN INTENSITY AND LARGE HAIL
WILL BE POSSIBLE. WW MAY BE NEEDED OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

DIFFUSE COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM CNTRL OH SWWD TO SRN IL. MODERATE
INSTABILITY HAD DEVELOPED IN THE WARM SECTOR S OF THE FRONT WITH
MLCAPES AROUND 1500-2000 J/KG. DEEP LAYER SHEAR MAX OF 60 KT 
EXISTED ACROSS WCNTRL KY AND WAS ASSOCIATED WITH A MID-LEVEL JET
APPROACHING FROM THE SW. CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE TO DEVELOP IN AN
AREA OF INCREASING LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ACROSS WRN KY. MODERATE
INSTABILITY AND STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR SUGGEST A SUPERCELL IS
POSSIBLE. LARGE HAIL POTENTIAL WILL EXIST IF A SUPERCELL CAN
DEVELOP. WW MAY BE NECESSARY ACROSS CNTRL KY LATER THIS AFTERNOON.   

..BROYLES.. 05/06/2003

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LMK...PAH...

37468776 37918668 38148578 38168510 37288484 36878620
36708736

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
May 5, 10:58 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCHenderson, Union2 hr
May 6, 10:55 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBoone, Bracken, Campbell, Carroll, Gallatin, Grant and 9 more2 hr
May 6, 11:55 AM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCHancock, Henderson4 hr
May 6, 1:23 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCHenderson2 hr
May 6, 5:40 PM CDTTornado WatchSPCBallard, Caldwell, Carlisle, Christian, Crittenden, Graves and 12 more6 hr

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Kentucky, 2003Every mesoscale discussion in 2003

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.