Alert archive / Nebraska / Mesoscale Discussions in 2003

Mesoscale Discussion 706

May 3, 20034 states

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at May 3, 2003, 11:48 AM MDT for 4 states. It was in force for 2 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: May 3, 2003, 11:48 AM MDT (17:48 UTC)
Expired: May 3, 2003, 2:15 PM MDT
In force: 2 hr
Issued by: the Storm Prediction Center

All 24 counties

Logan County, CO, Phillips County, CO, Sedgwick County, CO, Washington County, CO, Yuma County, CO, Banner County, NE, Box Butte County, NE, Cheyenne County, NE, Dawes County, NE, Deuel County, NE, Garden County, NE, Kimball County, NE, Morrill County, NE, Scotts Bluff County, NE, Sheridan County, NE, Sioux County, NE, Custer County, SD, Fall River County, SD, Lawrence County, SD, Campbell County, WY, Crook County, WY, Goshen County, WY, Niobrara County, WY, Weston County, WY

The radar

The Cheyenne radar (KCYS), 120 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 17:51 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Denver, CO (KDNR), launched 12:00Z, 5.8 hours before the alert went out and 219 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL: 2281 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 52 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 88 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 137 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

337 
ACUS11 KWNS 031749
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 031748 
NEZ000-SDZ000-COZ000-WYZ000-032015-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0706
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1248 PM CDT SAT MAY 03 2003

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN WY...SWRN SD...NERN CO...AND THE NEB PANHANDLE

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 031748Z - 032015Z

THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS REGION DURING THE NEXT 1-3 HOURS...PARTICULARLY ACROSS ERN
WY. THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS INCLUDING A FEW SUPERCELLS MAY REQUIRE
WW IN THE REGION LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AT 1730Z SUGGESTS A REGION OF UPPER-LEVEL
DIVERGENCE SPREADING NEWD FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES TOWARD THE
DISCUSSION AREA. ASSOCIATED SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS ON THE ORDER OF
2-3 MB/2 HR CONTINUE ACROSS ERN CO...ERN WY...AND THE NEB PANHANDLE.
RAPID CLEARING OCCURRED LATE THIS MORNING ACROSS NERN CO...ERN
WY...THE NEB PANHANDLE SETTING THE STAGE FOR DESTABILIZATION AND
STEEPENING LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON.
VISIBLE IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF CUMULUS
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE MTNS OF CENTRAL WY.

AS FORCING FOR ASCENT EMERGES INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AREA THIS
AFTERNOON...IN CONJUNCTION WITH CONTINUED SURFACE
HEATING...ISOLATED/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED FROM NERN WY
SWD INTO NERN CO. IF PRESSURE FALLS CAN REMAIN FOCUSED ALONG THE
FRONT RANGE...A SSELY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT
MOISTURE /DEWPOINTS INTO THE LOW 50S/ INTO THE REGION ALLOWING FOR
100MB MLCAPE VALUES OF 1000-1500 J/KG AND AN ASSOCIATED THREAT OF
SEVERE STORMS. DEEP LAYER SHEAR /SFC-6KM/ AROUND 40KT SHOULD
INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON...AND SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR ROTATING
STORMS. HAIL AND ISOLATED/LOCALIZED DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE
PRIMARY THREAT. HOWEVER...WHERE LOW-LEVEL FLOW REMAINS BACKED THIS
AFTERNOON...TORNADOES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.

..BANACOS.. 05/03/2003

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LBF...UNR...GLD...BOU...CYS...BYZ...RIW...

40050205 39410211 39430275 39700324 40310367 41360436
43300561 43930607 44870672 44750517 44520320 42660229
41070205

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
May 3, 4:10 PM MDT	Tornado Watch	SPC	Logan, Phillips, Sedgwick	5 hr
May 3, 4:09 PM MDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Beadle, Brown, Brule, Buffalo, Campbell, Clark and 24 more	96 min
May 3, 5:10 PM MDT	Severe Thunderstorm Watch	SPC	Bennett, Campbell, Corson, Dewey, Edmunds, Faulk and 17 more	6 hr

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Nebraska, 2003 Mesoscale Discussions in Colorado, 2003 Mesoscale Discussions in Wyoming, 2003 Every mesoscale discussion in 2003

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.