Alert archive / New Jersey / Mesoscale Discussions in 2003

Mesoscale Discussion 680

May 2, 20034 states

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at May 2, 2003, 12:43 PM EDT for 4 states. It was in force for 2 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: May 2, 2003, 12:43 PM EDT (16:43 UTC)
Expired: May 2, 2003, 2:45 PM EDT
In force: 2 hr
Issued by: the Storm Prediction Center

All 43 counties

Berkshire County, MA, Franklin County, MA, Hampden County, MA, Hampshire County, MA, Worcester County, MA, Bergen County, NJ, Burlington County, NJ, Camden County, NJ, Essex County, NJ, Gloucester County, NJ, Hudson County, NJ, Hunterdon County, NJ, Mercer County, NJ, Middlesex County, NJ, Monmouth County, NJ, Morris County, NJ, Passaic County, NJ, Somerset County, NJ, Sussex County, NJ, Union County, NJ, Warren County, NJ, Bronx County, NY, Columbia County, NY, Dutchess County, NY, Greene County, NY, Kings County, NY, New York County, NY, Orange County, NY, Putnam County, NY, Richmond County, NY, Rockland County, NY, Sullivan County, NY, Ulster County, NY, Westchester County, NY, Bucks County, PA, Carbon County, PA, Delaware County, PA, Lehigh County, PA, Monroe County, PA, Montgomery County, PA, Northampton County, PA, Philadelphia County, PA, Pike County, PA

The radar

The Brookhaven radar (KOKX), 91 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 16:43 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Brookhaven, NY (KOKX), launched 12:00Z, 4.7 hours before the alert went out and 91 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL: 1103 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 37 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 97 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 129 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

515 
ACUS11 KWNS 021643
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 021643 
MAZ000-RIZ000-CTZ000-NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-021845-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0680
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1143 AM CDT FRI MAY 02 2003

AREAS AFFECTED...INTERIOR SRN NEW ENGLAND...SERN NY...ERN PA...AND
NJ

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 021643Z - 021845Z

THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY...NJ...AND ERN PA. ISOLATED STORMS
ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ACROSS SRN NY. THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS/HAIL MAY
NECESSITATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. 

AT 16Z...A SURFACE FRONT EXTENDED FROM SWRN VT SWWD TO 20 E BGM.
INSOLATIONAL HEATING CONTINUES BETWEEN FRONTAL CLOUD BAND AND HIGH
CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH CYCLONE EAST OF CAPE HATTERAS. SURFACE
TEMPERATURES AWAY FROM THE COAST HAVE WARMED INTO THE MID TO UPPER
70S ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY...NJ...AND ERN PA. THIS REGION IS
COLOCATED WITH A LOW-LEVEL MOIST AXIS WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW
60S.  SBCAPE VALUES OF 1000-1500 J/KG AND MINIMAL CONVECTIVE
INHIBITION SHOULD ALLOW THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP AND INCREASE AND
COVERAGE/INTENSITY AHEAD AND ALONG EWD ADVANCING COLD FRONT. DEEP
LAYER SHEAR VALUES OF 20-30 KT THIS AFTERNOON IS MARGINALLY
FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED STORMS. A CONVECTIVE LINE APPEARS LIKELY
ALONG THE FRONT...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED DAMAGING WINDS. 
ISOLATED CELLS IN ADVANCE OF THIS FEATURE IS ALSO POSSIBLE WITH HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE WITH STRONGER CORES. STORMS WILL TRACK
GENERALLY ENEWD AT 20-25KT. 

..BANACOS.. 05/02/2003

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...BOX...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...CTP...

42097478 42467385 42637303 42687226 42647169 42247158
41857178 41217299 40827369 40587391 40057417 39407476
39707547 40837619

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in New Jersey, 2003 Mesoscale Discussions in New York, 2003 Mesoscale Discussions in Pennsylvania, 2003 Every mesoscale discussion in 2003

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.